Atlanta Hawks 2024-25 season preview: Why the stakes are high for Trae Young and Co.

The 2024-25 NBA season is here! We’re breaking down the biggest questions, best and worst case scenarios, and fantasy outlooks for all 30 teams. Enjoy!

ATLANTA FALCONS

Final 2023-24

Off-season moves

• Additions: Zaccharie Risacher, Nikola Đurišić, Dyson Daniels, Larry Nance Jr., Cody Zeller, David Roddy, Keaton Wallace, Dominick Barlow

• Subtractions: Dejounte Murray, Saddiq Bey, Wesley Matthews, Bruno Fernando, Trent Forrest, AJ Griffin, Dylan Windler

• complete list

The big question: Can Atlanta build a decent defense around Trae Young?

I know: it’s not exactly the most original question. But even though the All-Star pick-and-roll playmaking dynamo produced three top-10 finishes in offensive efficiency In six professional seasons, Atlanta has won just 45% of its games. since drafting Young. The only season he advanced beyond the first round of the playoffs? You guessed it: the only one in which he presented a league average defense.

So: If the Hawks aren’t going to trade Young (and one would assume they won’t, judging by the fact they moved his defensive back partner, evidently for a return greater than than they could recover by turning he $138 million remaining on Trae’s contract), and if they are not going to sink (a safe bet, considering that the Spurs they still control their 2025, 2026 and 2027 first round picks of the 2022 Murray trade), then they should try to be pretty good. (What a concept!) And that It would seem to require building a tighter defense than the unit that finished in the bottom five in points scored per possession in five of the last seven seasons.

The good news: Quin Snyder has some tools to work with there.

Jalen Johnson surprised with his great offensive progress in his third season: 16 points, 8.7 rebounds and 3.6 assists per game. shooting 68% at the rim and 38% in triples above the break. But the 6-foot-9, 220-pound, 22-year-old 7 foot wingspan He also made his presence felt on the other end, averaging 4.4 steals, blocks and deflections combined per 36 minutes of playing time.

A player with the size and quickness to defend any forward spot and also grab a quarter of the available defensive rebounds can help a team simply by taking up space. With Johnson on the groundthe Hawks’ largely irresponsible defense allowed almost four points less per 100 possessions than when I was out of it.

The return of the Murray trade should also help. The veteran Nance provides intelligence, leadershipversatility and active hands, constantly publishing elite steal rates for a big man. The prize, however, could turn out to be former lottery pick Daniels, a 6-foot-8 Australian with a 6-foot-11 wingspan, enough speed to keep up with smaller ball-handlers, enough strength to develop bigger wings large and an inclination. for causing havoc; Among players who logged 1,000 minutes, only Matisse Thybulle, Alex Caruso and Dennis Smith Jr. logged as many. steal and deflections per minute last season.

If Daniels can hit his jump shot (just 31.2% from deep as a Pelican and 36.7% from short corners), he could be a perfect fit alongside Young in the backcourt, taking on the toughest defensive assignments while serving as a complementary playmaker and off-ball cutter on offense.

Between Johnson, Daniels, Nance and De’Andre Hunter, there are plenty of defensive options to deploy in the project of isolating Young. And if Risacher, the No. 1 overall pick, a 6-foot-8, 215-pound forward with a 6-foot-10 wingspan who profiles as a versatile and smart defender, looks as comfortable on that side as he did offensively in his senior debut preseason…

…then this could He will be the best combination of length, physicality and perimeter athleticism that Atlanta has put around Young yet. Make some improvements in ball containment, combine it with solid rim protection from Clint Capela and Onyeka Okongwu, and maybe these Hawks break out of the bottom 10 in defensive efficiency.

And with a stable floor beneath him, perhaps Young, who is now one of the three players in history with multiple seasons averaging 25 points and 10 assists per game, and who had the Hawks offense humming like the damn celts in the minutes He played without Murray last season. …

…may offer more reminders of why Atlanta went to great lengths to build around him in the first place.

The best of cases

The newcomers produce something like the 18th-best defense in the NBA, marking this edition of the Hawks as somewhat more serious than the last two iterations. With that steady pace behind him, Young rips off a solo face-melting regular season, leading the league in scoring. and assists while putting Atlanta back in the top three in points scored per possession. With Trae at the helm, Johnson gaining (some) All-Star hype, Risacher showing promise and Bogdan Bogdanović in the running for Sixth Man of the Year, the Hawks are over .500 all the way…at 46 wins, which is which at least leaves them out. of the lower half of the input box. Progress!

If everything falls apart

Another disastrous defense leads to increasingly stale vibes, as the unnerving feeling that you can’t build a winner around Young permeates the organization and fan base. We’re reminded that progress isn’t linear, as Johnson struggles to build on his Almost Most Improved Player advancement now that he’s ranked more prominently on the scouting report. Risacher fails more than he shines, leading to renewed lamentations about how unlucky he is to win. this lottery. The Hawks are a little better on defense and a little worse on offense, and the result is another win total of around 30 followed by making the play-in practically by default or, worse yet, not making it, thus handing over the Spurs. a golden ticket in the Cooper Flagg lottery.

fantasy twist

There is precedent for Young being worthy of a first-round fantasy pick. Young finished 12th in value per game and fourth in total value in the 2021-22 season before Murray went to the A. Now that Murray is gone, Young is expected to have a usage rate above 30 percent and average 25 points with 10 assists. this season.

Johnson missed 26 games last season, but has an elite fantasy profile. It will cost him a late third-rounder, while Bogdanović’s ADP remains too low despite rising over the past week to a mid-eighth-round pick. Bogi is a good source of points, three-pointers and steals. Keep an eye on Daniels as a late-round driver.

I still buy more shares of Okongwu (117 ADP) than Capela (91.5), mainly thanks to ADP. Capela is an automatic double-double. I am concerned about his declining minutes over the past four seasons and the Hawks’ long-term financial commitment to Okongwu. Okongwu has been efficient per minute while also helping Fantasy managers with field goal percentage, blocks and rebounds. — Dan Tito

Calendar 2024-25

Leaving Murray represented a downgrade of talent, but I think this roster is a better fit than its predecessor, which won 36 games despite Young, Johnson, Okongwu and Hunter combining to miss 106 games. Slightly better luck with health, slightly better depth and slightly better performance in crucial moments: Atlanta was only 21-26 in games that were within five points in the last five minutes, they could achieve a slightly better result. I’ll take over (although not by much).