Anglo American eyes South Africa as it fights for its future, says ALEX BRUMMER

Negotiations continue, but as today approaches the deadline for Australian miner BHP to submit its formal £39bn bid for London-listed natural resources group Anglo American, a distance remains between the two sides.

The cliff-edge candidacy coincides with today’s South African elections, so an extension may be a smart move.

If radical elements – boosted by former president Jacob Zuma – were to maintain the balance of power in an ANC coalition, it could be an advantage for Anglo. As a group with deep historical roots in the country, you will find life easier in Pretoria.

It will not be easy to dissuade BHP from its attempt. It could even consider moving the combined BHP-Anglo group’s main listing back to London from Sydney if that could spark a deal.

A number of radical ideas appear to be on the table, although political uncertainty, in South Africa and now Britain, are key factors.

Anglo’s board, led by serial corporate salesman Stuart Chambers, shows no public signs of weakening despite pressure to extend talks and forge a deal from 9.6 per cent shareholder BlackRock and others.

Instead, Anglo continues to promote its own plan, which involves divesting platinum operations and listed iron ore interests in South Africa, scrapping De Beers and slowing Woodsmith’s polyhalite fertilizer development near Whitby in Yorkshire.

It maintains that its divestment plan for listed South African subsidiaries avoids BHP ownership foreclosure risk.

The Australian miner will have to navigate its way through a maze of regulatory, tax and competition issues before any transaction can be completed.

Among other things, China may not welcome BHP’s control over a vibrant and increasingly valuable copper industry.

City Panjandrum Chambers and Anglo chief executive Duncan Wanblad deserve credit for keeping BHP at arm’s length.

So far they have resisted the temptation to turn away. Their defense is helped by signs that UK asset managers, such as Finsbury Growth’s Nick Train, are increasingly enthusiastic about UK stocks.

BHP believes the premium it offers for all paper, of around 45 per cent, is generous.

Rising copper prices make Anglo’s extensive operations and mining rights in Chile and Peru look increasingly attractive.

There is good reason to think that this time the appeal of the reddish metal is based on solid manufacturing reasons around conductivity and climate change, and is not a speculative bubble.

BHP believes it can improve value by using its superior investment capabilities. Whatever the praise, Anglo-American should stand firm.

Return to Sender

Today is also the deadline for Czech sphinx Daniel Kretinsky’s £3.5bn bid for International Distribution Services (IDS), owner of Royal Mail.

The IDS board has all but given up and is doing little to deter the marauder. Kretinsky and his advisers believe they have managed to persuade the belligerent Communications Workers Union (CWU) that he would be a good owner.

My advice to the CWU and others is not to be fooled. It is a debt-laden deal that will require huge cost cuts and a reduced workforce if Royal Mail is to remain profitable.

The agreement for the IDS could be the first big test for the next government.

So far, conservatives’ reservations have been moderate, and Kretinsky is not averse to public chatter.

If the Labor Party were true to its patriotic claims and its support for workers, it would make it clear that the King’s Head is not for sale.

Highly leveraged takeovers of valuable UK assets should not be tolerated.

dead letter

Rachel Reeves must be delighted. Much of the media has embraced the idea that a letter signed by disgraced Heathrow boss John Holland-Kaye, among others, is being taken as a sure sign that Labor has won the hearts and minds of the public. companies.

My own informal inquiries among advisers to the FTSE 100 titans produced a different response.

The list, in his opinion, is dominated by former Labor Party lovers.

Curiously, they describe Keir Starmer’s mutterings about the economy as empty and Rishi Sunak’s words as more revealing.

Hope is eternal!