A vital section of Australian voters who were key to Labor winning the 2022 federal election have turned away from the Albanian government.
While voters generally approve of the Prime Minister’s broken promise on Stage Three tax cuts, the government has fallen behind the Coalition with female voters.
In the last six months, the female vote in Labor primaries has fallen dramatically from 35 per cent to 30 per cent, while the Coalition’s has risen from 36 to 41 per cent.
On a Labor versus opposition basis, the Coalition now has a lead among women voters of 51 per cent to 49 per cent, according to a new poll for the Daily Telegraph.
Just two months ago, the RedBridge poll had Labor leading the Coalition with 54 per cent to 46 per cent for the same measure.
A vital section of Australian voters who were key to Labor winning the 2022 federal election have turned away from the Albanian government. Anthony Albanese appears in the photo with his partner Jodie Haydon
While voters generally approve of the Prime Minister’s broken promise on Stage Three tax cuts, the government has fallen behind the Coalition with women voters.
What is worrying for Labor is that almost half of all voters think the country is going in the wrong direction and less than a third believe it is going in the right direction.
But the Prime Minister will take comfort in knowing that his risky move to change the upcoming tax cuts to benefit everyone, and not just high earners, paid off.
Income between $18,200 and $45,000 will be taxed at 16 percent, up from 19 percent. The 30 per cent tax rate will apply to income between $45,000 and $135,000, and then a 37 per cent rate, which was abolished in the original stage 3, will apply between $135,000 and $190,000. Above that figure, the 45 percent rate will apply.
The move has helped keep Labour’s primary vote stable at 33 per cent, but the Coalition has increased its position by 3 points to 38 per cent since December.
This increase in the vote in the primaries has raised the opposition’s bipartisan preferred vote from 47.2 percent to 48.8 percent, while the Government has fallen from 52.8 percent to 51.2 percent.
With those numbers, the Coalition, whose voter drive comes almost entirely from women, will be competitive in the next election, which will be held in May 2025.
However, the tax cuts starting July 1 will have been in people’s bank accounts for 10 months by then.
That extra money will likely be felt most acutely in the outer suburbs of Sydney and Melbourne, which the Liberal Party needs to win back to regain power.
In the last six months, the female vote in Labor primaries has fallen dramatically from 35 per cent to 30 per cent, while the Coalition’s has risen from 36 to 41 per cent. In the photo, a woman enters a supermarket.
In an effort to counter the positive reaction Labor has had to the tax cut changes, the opposition has warned that Labor plans to change negative guidance on rental properties.
But voters are divided on the issue: 39 percent say it should be left as is and the same number say it should be phased out or eliminated immediately.
RedBridge’s Kosmos Samaras said that with 60 per cent of voters supporting or strongly supporting Labour’s tax changes, the broken promise has worked.
“The most important thing is that it has worked well in the suburbs and provincial cities, which will determine the outcome of the next federal election,” he said.
“This is an ominous sign for the Coalition as Labor has regained some narrative and political ground in critical electorates.”
The Stage Three tax cuts have also improved the Government’s credentials on which side of politics is best able to manage the economy: Labor now leads 32 per cent to 28 per cent on the measure.
RedBridge’s Tony Barry said the Coalition would be concerned if Labor now takes the lead on economic management, a factor where the Conservatives generally have an advantage.
He said Mr Albanese’s decision to take a tax risk had paid off.
“At the moment, it appears that Albanese’s decision to take a risk based on trust is paying off by showing low- and middle-income people that he is listening to their concerns and offering them a deal.”
