The Iowa pollster behind the explosive poll that shook Saturday night’s presidential election defended results showing Kamala Harris leading in the conservative state.
Ann Selzer has earned a reputation as the “Iowa poll queen” and the “best pollster in politics” after decades of conducting Des Moines Register polls.
But the credibility of “Des Moines pollster Cassandra” was called into question by findings that the vice president was ahead of Trump in the Republican-majority Hawkeye State.
The former president stormed the poll by calling Selzer a “Trump hater” and insisting that Iowa farmers “love” him.
Iowa hasn’t voted for a Democrat in a presidential election since Barack Obama in 2012, and Harris’ campaign dismissed it as an easy GOP victory.
Seltzer’s poll was immediately criticized as an “outlier” and the Trump campaign pointed to an Emerson poll showing the Republican candidate leading comfortably.
She responded to MSNBC’s criticism and said she had evidence to support the surprising conclusion.
“We don’t have as much data as we would like about why this is happening,” he told The Weekend Show.
Ann Selzer has earned a reputation as “Iowa poll queen” and the “best pollster in politics” for decades conducting Des Moines Register polls.
“But our consensus among journalists who work in this field is that the abortion ban went into effect last summer… I think it has made people interested in voting.”
He said part of the reason Harris is leading is “her strength with women…it’s part of the boost Kamala Harris has gotten this time.”
Selzer went on to say that she has personally seen “fewer signs of Trump” than in 2020.
And he admitted that “there is still some swing that needs to be determined on election night,” as neither candidate got more than 50 percent in his poll.
Polls show the gap between the two candidates could grow even closer in what is expected to be a historically close election on Tuesday night.
Trump and Harris are essentially tied nationwide, and the margins in the seven battlegrounds that will likely decide the race are razor-thin.
More than 70 million Americans have voted early and millions more will do so on November 5.
Kamala Harris is experiencing a last-minute surge in momentum over Donald Trump in the final days of one of the closest presidential elections in history.
“But our consensus among journalists who work in this field is that the abortion ban went into effect last summer… I think it has made people interested in voting,” Selzer said on MSNBC.
Polls show the gap between the two candidates could grow even closer in what is expected to be a historically close election on Tuesday night.
Trump and Harris are essentially tied nationwide, and the margins in the seven battlegrounds that will likely decide the race are razor-thin.
More than 70 million Americans have voted early and millions more will do so on November 5.
Polls in Iowa in September showed Trump with a four-point lead over Harris and the campaign has insisted this is not what will happen in the race.
In a Saturday night memo, aides pointed to the Emerson poll released Saturday showing Trump leading by 10 points.
That “much more closely reflects the state of the actual Iowa electorate,” the Trump campaign says.
The campaign also criticized the method used in the Des Moines Register poll, adding that Republicans are seeing a massive increase in early voters compared to 2020.
Polls in Iowa in September showed Trump with a four-point lead over Harris and the campaign has insisted this is not what will happen in the race.
He highlighted all aspects of the poll, including the suggestion that Harris leads among women by 20 points and among seniors by 19.
The former president had an 18-point lead over President Biden in the Hawkeye State in June before dropping out of the race.
But things have changed since then, the new poll reveals, presenting a new potential, but highly unlikely, path to victory for Harris and her campaign.
Harris’ three-point lead is within the poll’s margin of error and Trump remains the favorite to win the state by a comfortable margin.
Democrats had discarded the state and Harris focused on the seven vital battlegrounds.
Surprisingly, the poll also found that independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. received three percent of the vote.
Kennedy notably won nine percent of the vote in the state, according to polls conducted in June.
His improvement in the Midwest state comes amid a media blitz as he appears on talk radio, cable channels and soon Saturday Night Live.
Harris’ surprise lead is boosted by independent women voters, who are expected to swing to the Democrat as men flock to Trump.
Harris has a 28-point lead with these women over Trump. Independent men, on the other hand, are leaning toward the Republican Party.
While another Iowa poll shows the race firmly in Republican hands.
Trump and Harris are essentially tied nationwide, and the margins in the seven battlegrounds that will likely decide the race are razor-thin.
The vice president received a jolt Saturday night with a poll showing her ahead in Republican-majority Iowa and DailyMail.com’s election forecast showing her leading the 78-year-old former president. .
Both Trump and Harris were in North Carolina on Saturday, one of seven battlegrounds that will likely decide the winner.
An Emerson College poll found the former president with a 53 percent lead to Harris’ 43 percent.
Trump’s 10-point lead in that poll is within the three-point margin of error.
Iowa Gov. Kim Reynolds rejected Saturday night’s poll results, suggesting Republicans had an advantage in early voting.
“Iowa Republicans are ahead in early voting for the first time in decades and have increased our lead in voter registration by more than 130,000,” Reynolds wrote in X.
‘President Trump will win Iowa if we vote and rally our friends. Let’s prove the Des Moines Register wrong again!’ she said.
Both Iowa polls were released on Saturday, just three days before Election Day.
The latest election forecast model from JL Partners delivered to DailyMail.com on Saturday also spells bad news for Trump.
The model is moving away from “leaning” Trump toward “ruined” territory.
Trump remains the favorite, winning in 62.2 percent of simulations.
But that’s a 2.5-point drop since Friday, and it’s now down seven points in five days, reflecting a series of polls favorable to Kamala Harris.
Former President Donald Trump, a Republican presidential candidate, looks at a video screen at a campaign rally at the Salem Civic Center, Saturday, Nov. 2, 2024, in Salem, Virginia.
Trump has a 10-point lead in Iowa, according to Emerson
Every swing state has seen moves against Trump.
Callum Hunter, Data Scientist at JL Partners, writes in his latest briefing note:
‘It is now clear that the momentum in recent polls is in Harris’ favor. Trump’s probability of victory has fallen 7 points in five days and if more polls are released showing similar patterns to those of the last few days, the race will shift from LEAN Trump to TOSSUP before Election Day.