This is a new problem for the auto industry. “One of the nice things about the auto industry is that it tends to move much more slowly than consumer electronics,” says Phil Amsrud, associate director of automotive at market research firm S&P Global Mobility. That gives automakers and suppliers plenty of time to figure out how to support their products and ensure that software will stay up to date and working at least through year 15. But “now that we’re trying to compress the auto industry time frame to be more like consumer electronics, is 15 years going to be compressed to 10 years, five years?” Amsrud asks.
Automakers love the idea of a “software-defined vehicle” because it could be an entry point into the software business, which generates low margins and high profits. A customer whose car can be updated anytime, anywhere could also be a willing customer. pay to update your car whenever and wherever.
As a result, automakers can keep selling new services and subscriptions — hands-free driving systems, perks like remote start, and improved maps — to people who already bought their cars, as long as the car is on the road. Today, some car customers pay extra monthly fees for these service packages, including General Motors’ OnStar roadside assistance, Tesla’s (supervised) Full Self-Driving, and Mercedes’ Me Connect package. But the public has balked at other subscriptions, including a 2022 offering from BMW that would have charged South Korean drivers a monthly fee to turn on their heated seats. (The automaker eventually decided to pay $100,000 for a monthly fee to turn on their heated seats.) abandonment the scheme.)
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The concept of “software-defined vehicles” requires automakers to leave headroom, or assurances that the hardware in today’s cars will be able to handle tomorrow’s new capabilities. The disappearance of connectivity standards — decisions ultimately made by telecom companies, not automakers — shows that this is a difficult challenge going forward.
In a written statement, Volkswagen spokesman Mark Gillies said that “despite our best efforts, we have not yet identified a solution that meets our reliability and safety standards for 3G vehicles.” He declined to comment further on solutions, citing ongoing lawsuits, but said the company believes the sunset of 4G technology will not occur until after 2035, “meaning the majority of our 4G vehicles will have the ability to connect for at least 10 years.”
Automotive experts say the industry hasn’t made any meaningful commitments about how long it plans to keep updating its newest software-enabled vehicles. And if vehicles lose the ability to update themselves long before they reach the scrapyard, “whoever is stuck with the problem will take a big hit to resale value,” says Philip Koopman, who studies software and transportation safety as an associate professor at Carnegie Mellon University.
Ray Cornyn is senior vice president and general manager of automotive processors at NXP, a Dutch company that is among the most popular suppliers to the auto industry. He predicts that the future of automotive software will look a bit like today. “Vehicles will be defined and designed for a 10- to 15-year lifespan,” he says, and support from suppliers like NXP will extend beyond that period. But the bulk of updates will happen between the fifth and 10th years.
Electric vehicle company Rivian markets itself as a software-first company. Software chief Wassym Bensaid says its solution to obsolescence is, in theory, pretty simple: The automaker is talking to its suppliers about when its hardware will no longer be upgradeable. “Today, the headroom that we have planned for in our hardware with what we believe to be best practices in the software world, we estimate at seven years,” Bensaid says. So while this is in line with the longevity of smartphones, in practice this could mean that Rivian trucks and SUVs sold today will continue to receive software updates only until 2031.
However, despite the fact that this may be the firmest commitment any automaker has ever made to updates, experts are still skeptical and wish automakers would be clearer about when and how they plan to update their vehicles.
“Whatever is being said at the moment will have to be proven over time,” says Stacey Higginbotham, a policy researcher at Consumer Reports.
