A prognosticator known as the “Nostradamus” of the presidential election has given his take on how JD Vance could influence the outcome between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris.
Professor Allan Lichtman of American University has accurately predicted the winner of nearly every presidential election since President Reagan’s re-election in 1984.
Earlier this week, after updating its complicated prediction model to reflect President Joe Biden has dropped out of the race and Vice President Kamala Harris has become the presumptive Democratic nominee, saying Harris was on track to win.
On his YouTube channel Friday, Lichtman believes part of the reason for Harris’s lead is that Vance would be a “horror show” if he had to serve as president.
“I don’t think the choice of vice president is decisive, but the choice of a vice president is incredibly important. That’s why the choice of JD Vance was so disastrous; he would be a horror show as president.”
He added that the goal of choosing a running mate is to have someone who will serve if the president dies or resigns, which has happened nine times in U.S. history.
A prognosticator known as the ‘Nostradamus’ of the presidential election has given his take on how JD Vance could influence the outcome between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris
Lichtman said Newsweek Magazine that Vance presents a problem in that Trump appears more moderate than the Ohio senator.
“In some respects, his views are even more extreme than those of Donald Trump. For example, on aid to Ukraine or on a national ban on abortion without exceptions in cases of rape, incest or illness of the mother. And Vance has become the target of criticism,” she said.
Harris, who is scheduled to announce her vice presidential pick on Monday, has seen a boost in the polls since announcing her intention to run.
According to Lichtman’s model, which includes thirteen factors, or “keys,” as he calls them, Harris is currently on track for victory less than 100 days before Election Day.
Lichtman’s model measures factors against the party currently in the White House, which is currently the Democrats.
He said he will make his official election prediction next month, but Harris has most of her keys leaning in her favor to win.
“I plan to make my official prediction in August after the Democratic convention,” Lichtman wrote on X. “See my assessment below in the 13 Keys Tracker on where the Keys stand NOW.”
Factors giving Harris the edge include that she did not face a primary challenger, there has been little threat from third-party candidates so far, and the economy is strong in the short and long term.
Professor Allen Lichtman believes Kamala Harris is on track to win the November election against Donald Trump despite the shakeup at the top of the Democratic presidential ticket
With the switch to Harris, the White House has not made a major shift in policy either, and the vice president is not facing a scandal or major social unrest.
Lichtman noted that with Biden’s transition to Harris as the presumptive nominee last week, Democrats have lost one advantage: the incumbency factor.
Now that Harris and Trump are facing each other, the professor believes the race is virtually wide open.
But he noted that Democrats were able to avoid further fallout with their shakeup, as the party overwhelmingly united behind Harris rather than launching a chaotic open primary or having other presidential hopefuls jump into the race at this late stage.
“I haven’t made a final prediction. I said I’ll make that after the Democratic convention,” Lichtman told C-SPAN.
“But I’ve said for months and continue to say that a lot of things would have to go wrong for the Democrats to lose,” he added. “That could happen, but a lot of things would have to change.”
Lichtman also said the new energy injected into Harris’ campaign could have a positive effect on several key issues for her, including fewer people voting for third-party candidate Robert Kennedy Jr. and potentially further curbing social unrest.
“The result is a mixed bag, Biden’s withdrawal and Harris’s presumptive nomination,” he said. “But that doesn’t fundamentally change my assessment that a lot would have to go wrong for the Democrats to lose.”
President Biden speaking on July 29, 2024. Professor Lichtman said the president’s withdrawal from the race on July 21 has not fundamentally changed his outlook for who will win the November election so far.
Lichtman’s prediction comes as polls show the presidential race remains extremely close, with Harris leading the pack.
An average of recent polls shows Trump leading by less than two points, according to Real Clear Politics.
As far as polls in key states are concerned, there is also a tight race between Trump and Harris now that Biden is no longer on the Democratic ticket.
But recent polls show there has been a surge in enthusiasm among Democrats, as Lichtman noted. Harris’s approval rating since she became the presumptive presidential candidate has also risen in recent days.