The state of Victoria, once described as the jewel in the Liberal Party’s crown, has long been an electoral wasteland for the main centre-right party.
But that could be changing. It’s just one poll, but after almost a decade in power, the Labour government’s primary vote has plummeted, according to the independent Redbridge poll.
The major parties now race 50-50 in a two-party preferential vote for the first time since 2017.
Although other states have seen Liberal oppositions fall at election time, no other state has been as consistently pro-Labor for as long as Victoria.
Aside from a mistake-plagued four-year term for the Coalition, Labor has governed Victoria for the past quarter-century.
Most recently, it was under the leadership of Dan Andrews. Since his retirement, Jacinta Allan has taken the reins, but has been embroiled in the CFMEU scandal and the fallout from the scrapped Commonwealth Games bid as the minister for which she was responsible.
But the change is not just about that, it is about Victoria’s extraordinary debt burden and high inflation. It is about handling the job at a time of economic uncertainty.
The poll result is a sure sign that the upcoming election will be a tough one for most incumbents, not just in Victoria.
Victoria has been clearly on Labor’s side for most of the past quarter-century, re-electing Premier Andrews in a “triumphant drift”, but the ALP’s heyday of power could be coming to an end.
The fact that the polls have declined without reversing says as much about the Victorian Liberal Party as it does about the current Labor government.
It is difficult to overstate the Liberals’ ineptitude in Victoria. From scandals to factional divisions, the state that gave the Liberals Robert Menzies is now a Labor cultural and ideological state.
And rather than trying to challenge him, Victorian Liberals have turned on themselves, spending more time attacking each other than their opponents.
According to this latest poll, the ultimate salvation for Allan and the Labour Party could be preference flows.
Despite the Labour primary vote share falling to around 30%, the Labour government still has a chance of securing another four years in office when it heads to the polls in two years’ time.
It’s an issue that voters across the country know all too well. According to some recent polls, the federal Labor primary vote has fallen to as low as 20%, and Anthony Albanese remains the favourite to win re-election on Greens preferences alone.
It is a counter-intuitive proposition: voters are worried about their economic vulnerability during a cost-of-living crisis, but they could indirectly return Labor to power with a more powerful parliamentary ally in the form of the Greens, who run on big-spending principles.
A scenario that many voters would say will only make an already bad situation worse.
Yet that is what our electoral system favours. Preferences allow the Greens, to a certain extent, to dictate terms when Labour governments in power are on the ropes, but voters are still wary of the coalition returning to power.
Whichever way you choose to interpret the fall in the Labor vote in Victoria at state level, it will have implications for the Albanese government.
Since taking over the reins, Jacinta Allan has been embroiled in the CFMEU scandal and the fallout from the failed Commonwealth Games bid as the minister for which she was responsible.
Whatever interpretation is given to the fall in the Labor vote in Victoria at state level, it will have implications for the Albanese government. Above, Albanese and his fiancée, Jodie Haydon
For a start, the federal Labor Party will have to face Victorian voters before the state government does. That could mean the states’ ire is directed at the feds.
This is one of the reasons why Albanese is considering postponing the federal election until after the Queensland election – so that Queenslanders can vent their anger on the state Labor Party.
But he doesn’t have that luxury in Victoria, where a state election is not due for another two years.
The Redbridge poll in Victoria, conducted between July 23 and August 1, also found Labor trailing the Coalition among immigrant voters, as well as among people on low incomes.
That is the profile of many key outer metropolitan districts that Peter Dutton is targeting across the country, not just in and around Melbourne.
These voters are the hardest hit by tough economic times, along with homeowners struggling with rising inflation and the risk of further rate hikes.
The Redbridge survey also reveals that homeowners are turning against Labor after the state government raised land taxes.
The odds are still in Labor’s favour, both in Victoria and nationally. This is, after all, just one poll.
But resentment and doubts about Labour are growing, and it is hard to see that trend reversing against the backdrop of a still-struggling economy.
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