Corbin Burnes is headed to the Arizona Diamondbacks and it didn’t come cheap.
The 2021 Cy Young Award winner agreed to a six-year, $210 million contract with the Diamondbacks early Saturday morning. The deal, which includes an opt-out for Burnes after two seasons, was first reported by Jon Heyman of the New York Post.
The contract is the largest in Diamondbacks history. Burnes, who lives in Scottsdale, Arizona, will now pitch for the local team after reportedly turning down offers from the San Francisco Giants and Toronto Blue Jays.
The deal ends Burnes’ tenure with the Baltimore Orioles after one season. The AL East contenders sought a splashy trade last winter by acquiring the right-hander from the Milwaukee Brewers, but he ended up being a one-year rental.
It’s not that Burnes didn’t deliver for Baltimore. From his Opening Day start (6 innings, 1 hit, 1 run, 11 strikeouts) to his only postseason start (8 innings, 5 hits, 1 run, 3 strikeouts), Burnes was the true ace the Orioles were looking for. when traded for him, but his free agent market was probably outside Baltimore’s price range.
Because Burnes turned down a qualifying offer from Baltimore, the Orioles will receive draft pick compensation from his new team.
Corbin Burnes has been one of the best pitchers in the MLB for 5 years, but could he be on the decline?
Looking back over the last half-decade, there’s no doubt that Burnes has been one of MLB’s best aces.
Since the 2020 season, Burnes ranks third in MLB in innings pitched with 816 2/3, fourth in ERA with 2.88, sixth in FIP with 3.01, second in strikeouts with 946 and fourth in bWAR with 18.6. There’s nothing you can look for in a pitcher that Burnes isn’t good at.
It remains an impressive success story for a player who was legitimately one of the worst pitchers in MLB in 2019. In 49 innings pitched, Burnes posted an exorbitant 8.82 ERA. That remains the worst ERA of any pitcher in Brewers history. with at least 40 innings pitched. Only 23 pitchers in MLB history they have given a worse grade in so many entries.
Burnes then turned his career around by introducing a cutter that is now his signature pitch. That being said, he actually reduced his cutter usage from 55.4% to 45% this season while still having a great season.
However, there are some reasons to worry that Burnes may be on the decline, starting with the fact that he is already in his 30s. After posting whiff rates above 35% from 2019 to 2022, he fell below 29% in 2023 and 2024. Last season, hitters also swung and made contact with pitches in the Burnes zone at the highest rate since his miserable 2019 season.
Burnes’ velocity has remained stable so far in his career, but in 2024, he struck out batters at a mediocre rate by MLB standards and an abysmal rate by his own standards. Many effectiveness predictors have also not been fans of his peripherals over the past two seasons.
Still, results are what matter, and Burnes has continued to deliver. Even a pitcher performing at 90% of Burnes’ prime is one of the most valuable pitchers in the game, and there are pitchers older than Burnes who are still paid tens of millions per year.
Giving Burnes that much money is fine and he would be a great addition to any team. It’s simply important to be aware of the trends you need to counteract to remain among the MLB’s elite.