Britain recorded a further 13,430 coronavirus infections and 603 deaths today, as the second wave of the disease continues to decline.
Statistics from the Department of Health show that Covid cases today were slightly higher than the 11,299 posted last Monday, which was considered a blip because it was unusually low. The outbreak in the UK has been on the wane for over two weeks as the lockdown thwarted the virus.
Deaths have only just begun to level off because of the delay that can be between patients who become infected and become seriously ill. Another 603 lab-confirmed coronavirus fatalities were confirmed today, slightly less than the 608 last week.
Separate government data – looking at when a death occurred rather than when it was recorded – shows that the number of fatalities started to decline after Nov. 21.
Meanwhile, slightly older statistics – which include both suspected deaths and laboratory-confirmed deaths – show that the curve is slowing. A weekly report from the Office for National Statistics showed that the number of people who died from Covid-19 in the week ending November 20 was 2,697, up from 2,466 the week before.
This was up just nine percent from up 27 percent a week earlier, when they were up 1937, and up from 53 percent in mid-October after the second wave got out of hand. The slowing pace shows that the worst of Britain’s second wave has already passed and that the number of fatalities may have peaked and are now falling again.
Deaths will continue to rumble as the number of new infections remains high – the daily average of positive tests is currently 14,778 for the UK as a whole – and a top statistician warned that the second wave death toll is on track to reach 20,000. Christmas.
Data from the Department of Health for England suggests second wave deaths from coronavirus peaked in the third week of November and may now be declining
On the back of today’s ONS data, Cambridge University statistician Professor David Spiegelhalter pointed out that Covid-19 kills more than eight times as many people as flu and pneumonia.
While there were 280 deaths from flu or pneumonia in the week to Nov. 13, 2,361 were from Covid-19, the ONS report said. Deaths with Covid-19 were 2,697, while those with the flu were 2,605.
He added: ‘Between September 5 and November 20, 12,907 deaths related to Covid were recorded in the UK, and there have been around 3,000 since then, a total of 16,000 in the second wave.
Unfortunately, the forecast that the second wave will bring in tens of thousands of Covid deaths seems to be on the horizon, and we can expect this second wave total to rise to over 20,000 by Christmas.
Once again, there were more than 1,000 additional deaths in private homes compared to normal, an increase of 40 percent.
“This appears to be a long-term change in the way people die in this country, and deserves a lot of attention.”
While non-Covid deaths are still below average – possibly because many people who would have died of other diseases from the coronavirus have died – there have still been thousands of excess deaths this year, and these have risen again during the second wave .
In the week to 20 November, there were 1,001 more deaths than average in private homes, in addition to 999 in hospitals and 180 in care homes.
As of March, there were a total of 34,663 additional deaths in private homes and 25,428 in nursing homes, while there were 7,460 fewer deaths than usual in hospitals at the time.
Deaths in nursing homes – where people are most vulnerable to Covid-19 – rose in November, more than doubling in a fortnight between the beginning and the middle of the month, but also started to level off.
Data shows that 467 nursing home residents died of the disease in the third week of the month, up from 425 a week before, 280 the week before and 168 in the last week of October.
Until November, the death toll from nursing homes had remained relatively low during the UK’s second wave, with weekly fatalities at or below 150 a week over the eight weeks of September and October.
The numbers pale in comparison to up to 2,800 per week during the epidemic’s first peak in April.
In the week ending Nov. 13, a total of 2,697 deaths from the coronavirus were recorded, 231 more than the week before and accounting for more than a fifth (21.5 percent) of the 12,535 all-cause deaths that week.
While this week’s Covid deaths are the highest since the week ending May 15, the smaller increase suggests that the number will soon peak and start declining again.
The ONS figures show that the increase in deaths began to slow in late October after a surge in the wake of a massive spike in infections in September as schools and universities fell back.
It is known that it takes about three weeks for an increase in the number of positive tests to translate into deaths.
The death rate rose 53 percent in the week to October 16, the RVS discovered, then by 46 percent the following week, then by 41 percent, 40 percent, 27 percent and recently by 9 percent.
Every region of England except one – the East of England – registered an increase in Covid-19 deaths.
The northwest had 629, the highest, followed by 481 in Yorkshire and the Humber, 306 in the West Midlands and 289 in the East Midlands.