During the last year, Paige Buecker has expanded the scope of what it means to be a college athlete. He played in a Final Four but also became equity partner in Unrivaled, he designed his own player edition sneaker for Nike and appeared on fields across the country at various sporting events.
In the new era of names, images and likenesses in college athletics, Bueckers has exercised unprecedented agency in her career and in building a brand for herself. What the budding superstar still can’t control is what comes next. Last month, the WNBA Draft Lottery all but assured that Bueckers’ next basketball stop will be with the Dallas Wings after they won the number 1 election.
For better or worse, that’s the nature of the draft. Players have limited influence over their destiny. They can choose to meet or train with certain teams and potentially withhold their medical records, but ultimately the teams have the majority of the power.
Bueckers, however, finds himself in a rare situation where he wields more influence thanks to his marketability, NIL portfolio, and college eligibility. (He may return for a sixth season at UConn due to COVID-19 eligibility rules.) If he decides not to play for the Wings, and word around the league is that Dallas wasn’t his preferred destination, he could pull whatever influence he can. to get where you want as soon as possible.
Although Bueckers has indicated that he is treating this season as his senior year, he may return to UConn if he does not want to enter the WNBA in 2025. Whether because she is chasing a national championship, prefers a different draft destination or wants to delay her professional career until the institution of a new WNBA collective bargaining agreement, there are incentives to play one more season with the Huskies. Even if Bueckers decides to turn pro, he could simply demand a trade.
Paige Bueckers says she didn’t watch the WNBA Draft Lottery over the weekend
“I mainly solved it by focusing on having a great practice today” pic.twitter.com/049M5iFilR
— UConn on SNY (@SNYUConn) November 20, 2024
“There’s a lot of noise, a lot more noise in terms of rumors, in terms of all those things related to women’s basketball, now more than ever,” said ESPN analyst Andraya Carter, who played at Tennessee until she ended her career in 2015. “I don’t know if the rumors are true, but this is the first time I’ve heard them to this point.”
Although Bueckers would likely be a star on any WNBA franchise, Dallas doesn’t offer the most opportunities for a player with a huge built-in fan base and marketing appeal. The Wings have been notoriously unstable since moving to Dallas in 2016. They have changed coaches every two seasons and are looking for another. In 2018, a postgame altercation between head coach Fred Williams and executive director Greg Bibb led to Williams losing his job. Stars haven’t flocked to the Wings in free agency, and some of their highest-profile players have publicly criticized the organization; Skylar Diggins-Smith She reported the lack of support she felt she received during her pregnancy in 2018-19. The constant drain of talent has gone in the opposite direction. Diggins-Smith and Liz Cambage asked to leave via trades, as did Allisha Gray and Marina Mabrey in the 2023 offseason.
To be fair to Dallas, the other lottery options had their flaws as well. Teams are at the bottom of the league for a reason. Even if Bueckers had preferred to go to Los Angeles or Washington, the Flies They don’t have a practice facility and are in a four-year playoff drought, and the mystics It has no head coach or general manager and plays in a 4,200-seat stadium.
Given the state of lottery teams, Bueckers could return to college by forgoing his draft eligibility at the end of the year. NCAA season and postpone the WNBA until 2026. That unfortunately still leaves her at the mercy of the lottery, but perhaps the threat of playing another season for University of Connecticut would motivate the Wings to take a trade demand seriously.
Additionally, it could be financially incumbent on her to postpone the start of her WNBA career. Entering this season’s draft, he would secure a four-year, rookie-scale contract that averages $87,000 per year. However, the WNBA will enact a new collective bargaining agreement ahead of the 2026 season, one that will increase player compensation.
The last time the league instituted a new collective bargaining agreement, second- and third-year players were stuck on their rookie contracts from the previous deal. That led to uncomfortable and unfair situations; Napheesa Collierwho was already an All-Star as a rookie in 2019, earned the lowest salary in the league in 2020 and 2021 despite being one of its best players. That’s a situation Bueckers would prefer to avoid.
If Bueckers decides to leave UConn after this season, which has been his public stance, the main tool at his disposal is to demand a trade to Dallas. The Golden State seems like an ideal destination in terms of market size and organizational strength, as well as the valkyries They are motivated to land a star quickly, although Bueckers is best placed to provide a list of suitors to encourage negotiations.
Player empowerment is increasing in professional sports, but that hasn’t been the case with the draft itself in recent years. In the WNBA, Kelsey Plum She accepted her fate in San Antonio in 2017. Aliyah Boston voluntarily went to Indiana, then a five-win team displaced for three summers due to arena renovations. Before NIL, there was no other resource for female basketball players, as players like Satou Sabally (who was drafted by the Wings) felt obligated to enter the draft to start earning a salary. Not even Boston had the star power to shake up the system. Analysts who spoke to them said they didn’t remember WNBA prospects trying to work their way to a different draft destination.
He NWSL Deleted drafts. In men’s sports, salaries are so lucrative that there is a willingness to sacrifice individual autonomy, but finances are not on the women’s side. A five-figure salary is not enough to force a star to play in a city not of his choice, for an organization that has not had a winning culture.
Trade lawsuits are old hat for WNBA veterans, and stars usually win. In the last 10 years, Kahleah Copper, Elena Delle Donne and Sylvia Fowles successfully negotiated their way to new teams. Fowles even sat out half a season while waiting for the right deal. Bueckers would hardly draw attention if he expressed a desire to play for a different team, even if the timing of his request was unique.
“The fact that these players can make money for themselves and start their brands and their careers outside of school and off the court, it opens up different avenues,” Carter said. “They just have more options now.”
If Bueckers plays chicken with Dallas after being drafted and waits until they trade her, she can cash in on her corporate endorsements with Gatorade, Nike and Bose, among others, even if she doesn’t earn a salary to play basketball. She also has an ownership stake in Unrivaled, a new 3×3 women’s basketball league, which could prove fruitful. Those earnings would more than offset the projected top pick’s $78,831 contract.
The thought of voluntarily not playing basketball could be difficult for Bueckers, who has suffered many injuries. But in any case, the precariousness of her career should motivate her to find an ideal place to land in the WNBA as soon as possible.
There’s a long road between now and the 2025 draft, plenty of time for Bueckers and his representation to evaluate Dallas and evaluate the market for a trade if the Wings don’t meet his standards. How the Huskies play in 2024-25 could also influence Bueckers’ willingness to spend another season in Storrs. Still, Bueckers has his destiny in his hands more than other potential No. 1 picks. If you want to reject the path that four ping-pong balls have laid out for you, you have the power to do so.
This article originally appeared on The Athletic.
Connecticut Huskies, WNBA, sports business, women’s college basketball
2024 The Athletic Media Company