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Too often September feels like the glorified NFL preseason. We need October football to cleanse our palates, to feel good again.
Baltimore and Cincinnati heeded that call on Sunday. Jacksonville and Indianapolis did too.
The Ravens and Bengals deserve the top spot. Contending teams, big-name quarterbacks. The Ravens escaped with a 41-38 overtime victory, in a game that featured 962 yards of offense and 53 first downs. Almost every plausible fantasy angle came home.
Lamar Jackson was wonderful leading Baltimore’s offense, throwing for 348 yards and four touchdowns. He added 55 more yards on the ground. There were occasional mistakes: two fumbles (one lost) and a safety, although he only absorbed one sack. But Jackson’s highlights, the splash plays, more than make up for the infrequent mistakes. I can’t imagine how the Commanders will contain him next week (now there’s a delicious matchup between Washington and Baltimore).
Baltimore’s passing tree can be a tricky solution some weeks, but Jackson focused on his receivers, directing 20 targets to Zay Flowers (7-111-0, 12 targets) and Rashod Bateman (4-58-1, eight targets ). The tight end job was split into three parts, with Isaiah Likely catching two short touchdowns, Charlie Kolar going 3-64-1 on every waiver wire in America, and Mark Andrews finally joining the party, four grabs for 55 yards. Given that Andrews had two targets and no sacks over the previous two weeks, I guess this is progress.
For the most part, the Bengals did an excellent job with Derrick Henry, but two plays saved the day: a short touchdown run in the first half and a 51-yard gallop in overtime, the last scrimmage play of the game. That’s the joy of Henry, he can look like he’s doing nothing, and he still scores 16.10 fantasy points. Surprisingly, Justice Hill was attacked only twice.
While Jackson preferred his wide receivers, Joe Burrow absolutely peppered his, sending 26 of 39 targets to Ja’Marr Chase (10-193-2) and Tee Higgins (9-83-2). Chase could legitimately be the first overall pick if he is drafted again tomorrow, especially considering Cincinnati’s weak defense on the other side. Higgins looks fully healthy again after missing the first two games of the year.
The Bengals already had a narrow usage tree, and it could get narrower in the future. Chase Brown was more effective than Zack Moss on Sunday, and Moss ultimately left the game with a nasty-looking ankle injury. Brown had a touchdown catch and a 2-point conversion, moving into the Top 10 of scoring running backs as the 1 pm ET window closed. The Giants present a reasonable matchup next week.
Burrow obviously didn’t look good in the season-opening loss to New England, but he has thrown 12 touchdown passes in the four games since. Interestingly, the Bengals have lost three of those games, allowing 26, 38, 24 and 41 points in that span. Maybe Cincinnati is the best fantasy carnival in the league right now.
The Colts are also starting to give off that carnivalesque vibe. The wonderful Joe Flacco had 359 yards and three touchdowns in Jacksonville, but his defense gave it all away, setting up Trevor Lawrence in three magic hours (371 passing yards, two touchdowns, one interception). The Colts know that developing Anthony Richardson is the priority of the season, but fantasy managers could be pining for more Flacco, especially considering how he clicked with receivers here. Lawrence hit Brian Thomas Jr. (5-122-1) for an 85-yard touchdown, but it’s criminal that Thomas has yet to see 10 targets in any game. Use your best players, guys.
Tank Bigsby is starting to look like Jacksonville’s best running back. He had 101 rushing yards and two touchdowns on 13 carries, including a 65-yarder. Travis Etienne was limited to 6-17-0 in the field, although he was useful in the passing game (6-43-0). Bigsby looked lost as a rookie, but he is one of the most improved players in the league right now. It’s time to proactively start him in mid and deeper fantasy formats. He is registered in only 22% of the leagues.
Jacksonville heads to London for two weeks, taking on the Bears and Patriots. Flacco or Richardson will face Tennessee in Week 6.
Other booms
The bears begin to accelerate
The Bears controlled their game against Carolina right away, so the volume was going to be difficult for passing options. But DJ Moore still came out ahead in his revenge game against Carolina, posting a 5-105-2 line against his former club. There is talent behind Moore in Chicago’s passing tree, but we all know who the alpha is.
Let’s say this for D’Andre Swift: the Bears remain committed to him. Although he failed to reach four yards per carry against Carolina, he had 23 touches for the second straight week and produced 120 total yards and a score. Yes, Roschon Johnson had two short touchdowns, but Swift is unrivaled as the team’s leading rusher. He will target the Jaguars next week, in the breakfast game in London.
Rhamondre Stevenson overcomes clumsiness problems
Stevenson didn’t start in Miami, which was a slight slap on the wrist for recent fumble issues. He then went 12-89-1 on the ground in Miami and caught four passes that went nowhere. New England has just 62 points through five games, so it appears they are limited to one touchdown per week. But if you had to bet, you’d expect Stevenson to score.
In other busts of the first windows
Bills (and opponents) put pressure on Josh Allen
Do the Bills need Davante Adams more than the Jets? Allen doesn’t get much help these days. He was limited to a miserable 9-for-30 passing game in Houston, absorbing three hours of physical blows (he briefly went into the medical tent in the fourth quarter, but was quickly released). Keon Coleman had a 49-yard reception, but his other targets fell to the grass. No one else on Buffalo’s roster punted for 35 yards receiving. Buffalo’s coaches also have to look in the mirror; Confounding decisions in the final minute of the game involved the decisive field goal for the Texans.
Dolphins still lost despite victory
The Dolphins got a win in New England, but there are no fantasy winners when your key guys can’t score touchdowns. The Dolphins’ only TD was a troll job by Alec Ingold, of all people. At least Tyler Huntley moved up to 6.3 YPA on his 31 attempts, so Tyreek Hill (6-69-0) and Jaylen Waddle (4-46-0) produced as WR3-4 for fantasy. De’Von Achane suffered a concussion in the first half, opening up more work for Raheem Mostert (19-80-0) and Jaylen Wright (13-86-0). Miami is quietly hoping that Tua Tagovailoa can return around Week 8.
Deshaun Watson’s struggles continue
I don’t know what it would take to bench Deshaun Watson, but apparently we’re not there yet. Watson took seven sacks and posted a putrid 4.5 YPA against a Washington defense generally considered one of the five worst in football. Would the Browns listen if someone called about an Amari Cooper trade?
Note: I will continue to add Week 5 analysis as the day progresses.