- Polls conducted from late July to early September remain virtually unchanged
- Results suggest Trump support remains strong as Harris honeymoon fades
With just two months to go until Election Day, Kamala Harris and Donald Trump are entering the final stretch with a non-significant gap in the polls.
But despite the small gap, the results show a shift toward the former president after Harris entered the race in late July.
Just two days before the first presidential candidates debate, A New York Times/Siena College poll puts Trump 1 percent ahead of the vice president (48 percent to 47 percent), within the poll’s 3-point margin of error.
The latest poll was conducted Sept. 3-6 and is virtually unchanged from the same national survey of likely voters conducted in late July after President Joe Biden ended his reelection campaign and endorsed his No. 2 candidate.
In particular, the poll suggests that despite Harris’s “honeymoon phase,” support for Trump’s bid for a second non-consecutive term in the White House remains strong.
Donald Trump leads Kamala Harris by one point in latest NYT/Siena poll
The national result is largely in line with the sentiment of Americans in the seven key states for winning the 2024 election.
In Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, Trump and Harris’ preference is still within the margin of error for likely voters and is even tied in some states.
Trump and Harris are tied in Arizona, Georgia, Nevada and North Carolina, with 48 percent each.
Harris then leads Pennsylvania by 1 point and Michigan and Wisconsin, other swing states, by 2 points.
Overall, the latest results reveal a tight race whose outcome still eludes some of the most experienced political scientists, pollsters and experts in the final stretch of the election.
On Tuesday, September 10, Harris and Trump will meet on stage in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, for a debate hosted by ABC News — their first face-to-face confrontation.
Support for Donald Trump remains strong in national polls
But when broken down by key states, Trump is either tied with Harris or the vice president has a lead of one or two points.
Biden’s debate with Trump in late June is ultimately what led to the president’s downfall in the 2024 election because his disastrous performance prompted a chorus of calls within the Democratic Party for Biden to step aside and let Harris take over.
There are just eight weeks until Election Day on November 5 in the shortest presidential race in modern US history after Harris joined the race on July 21.
Many MAGA supporters and Republicans say Harris’ polling surge and enthusiasm are part of a honeymoon phase and believe it will fade before voters cast their ballots. But mail-in ballots are already being sent to voters in some states for early and absentee voting.