The consensus among executives and rival evaluators is that the MetsThe most valuable trade chip, by far, is their starting pitcher on Thursday. Luis Severino.
“Severino gives you an average prospect,” said one high-ranking American League executive.
The case of the star first baseman Pete Alonsohowever, it is more complex.
The Mets have not yet decided to become trade deadline sellers. In fact, as we previously reported, they would prefer to avoid that approach for the second season in a row. But closer Edwin Diaz does not return to form, it is difficult to see a path to containment.
While the Mets hope that Diaz, activated from the disabled list on Thursday, can regain his confidence… and his manager carlos mendoza you see signs that it will; rival evaluators remain concerned that he is not completely healthy.
Diaz missed all of last season after injuring his knee in the World Baseball Classic. Pitching with reduced velocity and control, he has a 5.40 ERA and has blown four saves in nine chances. He went on the injured list on May 29 with a right shoulder impingement.
One evaluator postulated that Diaz this year was “all arm, like he was trying to protect his knee.”
Díaz does not believe this is the case.
In a recent conversation with Diaz, Mendoza felt that the Mets closer seemed much more confident than when he was in the midst of his May slump. With few, if any, better options, Mendoza will immediately restore Diaz to the closer role.
If Diaz is successful, it’s easier to imagine the Mets hanging around the Wild Card race. If he doesn’t, they might determine, albeit reluctantly, that selling is more prudent.
Of the players with expired contracts the Mets could sell, Severino stands out for his appeal to other teams.
Others, like Harrison Bader, Adam Ottavino and JD Martínez they are expected to earn only modest returns.
The Alonso case divides baseball people. Many note that the rental market for right-handed hitters is typically not strong, hence the expectation of a lower return for Martínez.
“For a rental, you don’t get much for Alonso unless there’s a bidding war,” one evaluator said.
Another veteran executive said: “Alonso might get you a prospect with a 5 to 10 rating. Not someone who is a stud.”
“I don’t agree with that,” said a senior American League executive. “Pete could be the difference between making the playoffs or not. He is better than Arraez (Luis Arraez, for whom Miami acquired a reliever Woo Suk Go and three prospects from an aggressive Padres team).”
If the first two quotes are correct, it would make more sense for the Mets to retain Alonso until he hits free agency at the end of the season. Why subject a fan base to a traumatic trade just to receive a minor leaguer who may or may not become a major leaguer?
But if the third executive is right and teams see Alonso as a difference-maker, the Mets will have to consider him. It will depend on the president of baseball operations David Stearns and your group to evaluate its value and proceed accordingly.