Britain’s falling fertility rate could have been exacerbated by Brexit, a leading European think tank has claimed.
A report published by the Paris-based Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) pointed to “Euroscepticism” as one of the reasons for the recent interest rate decline in the United Kingdom.
But one expert speaking at the launch of the Society at a Glance paper went a step further last week (June 20), claiming that Brexit could lead young couples to decide not to have children.
The paper had generally concluded that the total fertility rate (TFR) had fallen on average by more than half in OECD countries since the 1960s.
On average, women gave birth to 3.3 children in 1960, falling to 1.5 children in 2022.
A report published by the Paris-based Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) pointed to “Euroscepticism” as one of the reasons for the recent interest rate decline in the United Kingdom.
But one expert speaking at the Society at a Glance paper launch went a step further last week (June 20), claiming Brexit could lead young couples to decide not to have children.
The UK was slightly above average when it came to falling fertility rates: British women gave birth to 2.7 children in 1960, falling to 1.5 children in 2021 (figures from last year available to the OECD).
When asked if fertility was related to political changes, Brexit was cited as an example of why younger couples might choose not to have a child.
Vienna-based researcher Tomas Sobotka told the assembly: “I would like to mention one factor which is political polarization in some countries, very polarized political discourses, where often the generation can feel excluded from politics or that politics does not reflect their points of view”. and your needs.
“An example could be, for example, Brexit in the UK, where generations over 50 were overwhelmingly supportive politically, while young adults have completely different opinions and preferences on the issue.”
The UK’s fertility decline was notably smaller than other leading nations, including several leading G7 nations, Italy, Japan, Canada and Germany.
In their section on perceived uncertainties that could affect fertility, the report’s authors stated that “xenophobic responses” and “rising populism” could affect fertility rates.
The report adds: “Concerns about the future go beyond the economic consequences of the 2008 recession and include xenophobic responses to the 2015 refugee crisis.
“Euroscepticism, the rise of populism and Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine contribute to a feeling of uncertainty and unpredictability that future parents face when they decide to have (another) child.”
Reform MP Lee Anderson said: “Blame it all on Brexit.” “England played nonsense last night, and that’s also because of Brexit.”
The UK was slightly above average when it came to falling fertility rates: British women gave birth to 2.7 children in 1960, falling to 1.5 children in 2021 (figures from last year are available for the OECD).
According to the Office for National Statistics, responsible for collecting and analyzing statistics on UK society and population, the TFR has been declining since 2010.
TFR estimates how many children a hypothetical cohort of women could expect to have at the end of their reproductive period.
The comments were criticized last night as an attempt to blame the challenges on the UK’s decision to leave the EU.
Reform MP Lee Anderson said: “Blame it all on Brexit.” England played nonsense last night, and that’s also because of Brexit.
“We’ve probably had one of the wettest years so far, and that’s because of Brexit.” I’ll tell you one thing, we blame everything bad that happens in Europe on Brexit.
‘But interestingly, European countries are having exactly the same problems as us. Is it due to Brexit?
‘These people are just grasping at straws. You should take what these people say with a pinch of salt.
“They need to take them somewhere, put them in a dark room and listen to whale music.”
OECD sources said that while Sobotka did not contribute to the report, the authors referenced his articles in the fertility chapter.
He was one of the independent experts invited to the round table; The source added that Sobotka enjoyed great prestige in this field.
Sobotka later appeared to downplay his comments, adding that there was no data to prove his speculations.
He said: “I did not intend to suggest that Brexit would have a direct impact on fertility decisions.
‘I was using the example of Brexit as one of the iconic examples of political polarization, where the political representation of many countries makes long-term, life-altering decisions that are not aligned with the interests (and vote) of older generations. youths.
‘These political divisions contribute to high levels of dissatisfaction and pessimism about future prospects among young adults in many countries today, which is one of the factors that can in turn negatively impact fertility.
‘You can probably notice a lot of ‘could’ and ‘might’ in my writing, because I don’t really have data or evidence to test this link for individual countries or make any empirical evaluation, so the inference is speculative.
‘It goes without saying that my views do not represent the OECD. I was invited as an independent researcher to comment on trends and factors affecting fertility.’
The OECD has previously been accused of projecting a bleak economic outlook for the UK economy post-Brexit.
Days before the Brexit referendum vote in 2016, the OECD said the UK’s economic growth would be 3 per cent lower than it would be if it remained in the EU – at the time, the equivalent of £2,200 less per home.
