A university professor who has correctly predicted all presidential elections since 1984, says Donald Trump will win a second term at the White House – unless Democrats form a backbone and accuse him.
The fame of Allan Lichtman is a political disability system that determines whether the candidate of the sitting president's party will win the popular vote by studying 13 key indicators.
If six of the thirteen true / false assertions in Lichtman's list of criteria are false, he says, chances are that the keys to the Oval Office will move from Republican to Democrat, or vice versa.
& # 39; Currently the president is only three, & # 39; he said CNN on Wednesday, he noted that the president's party lost its seats in the 2018 mid-term elections, that he did not win a major foreign policy victory and, according to Lichtman's judgment, that Trump was not & # 39; charismatic or a national hero & # 39; 39; is.
To check more squares in his forecasting model and to prevent four years of Trump years, he says, House Democrats must start a deposition procedure.
The American University historian Allan Lichtman (right) has an infallible way of predicting presidential elections – it has been around since 1984 – and he says Donald Trump will travel to a second term unless House Democrats accuse him
Trump said Thursday that deposition & # 39; a dirty, filthy, disgusting word & # 39; is when he left the White House because of the graduation ceremony of the US Air Force Academy in Colorado
& # 39; Democrats are fundamentally wrong about the accusation policy and their prospects for the 2020 victory & # 39 ;, said Lichtman, a partisan historian who had just been in Trump for three months, entitled & # 39; The Case for Impeachment & # 39 ;.
He explained that the public spectacle of an indictment against the accusation in the US Senate would create a scandal in which another subject would be ticked off. Another Republican might feel a political opening and challenge him to the GOP nomination – a fifth of his 13 statements would be untrue.
The loss of confidence in an established chief executive could make the US economy suffer, arouse interest in a candidate who shares the vote, or even cause widespread social unrest. Each of them could be the sixth key indicator that the Lichtman model says would damn the president, even if the senate controlled by the republican refused to remove him from his post.
& # 39; Democratic prospects are grim & # 39 ;, Lichtman said, unless they form a backbone and do their constitutional duty and go to a settlement investigation. & # 39;
& # 39; What everyone forgets & # 39 ;, he said Wednesday, is that a simple majority in the House accusing Trump would provoke a public trial in the Senate in which prosecutors present evidence, present documents and make opening and closing statements & # 39 ;.
Lichtman says a public indictment against Republicans could inspire Republicans to fight against Trump or generate public unrest or even third parties, one of which could turn the scale
& # 39; Richard Nixon, before all the revelations, had 67 percent approval & # 39 ;, he recalled. & # 39; It was the public relations of his atrocities that brought him to 25 percent. & # 39;
When a reporter asked Trump on Thursday morning about a growing yell in the Democratic ranks for launching charges of persecution, he called it & # 39; presidential intimidation & # 39 ;.
& # 39; For me it's a dirty word, the word impeach, it's a dirty, filthy, disgusting word, and it had nothing to do with me, & # 39; he said.
& # 39; There was no high crime and there was no crime, & # 39; he said, referring to the grounds defined in the United States Constitution for removing a president. & # 39; So how do you set that? & # 39;
Democratic leaders have remained cautious in taking the politically charged step with elections less than 18 months away.
Nancy Pelosi, the speaker of the Democratic House, said Wednesday in a statement that Congress would step up the investigation while avoiding the word deposition.
& # 39; The congress keeps its constitutional responsibility sacred to investigate the president and hold the president accountable for his abuse of power & she said.
Lichtman wrote a book titled & # 39; The Case for Impeachment & # 39; and spent only three months in Trump's presidency
Lichtman rejected the idea on Wednesday that accusing Trump would allow him to reinvent himself as a victim of another trial that was easily dismissed as a witch hunt, depressing his support for the Republican people and the democratic rise.
& # 39; Absolutely not. You know, why would Democrats believe an incorrigible liar like Donald Trump? & # 39; he asked.
Lichtman urged the Democrats to take the plunge and cast a broader net than the previous Special Counsel Robert Mueller by & # 39; two crimes in which Trump was involved in the southern district of New York, before the Campaign Finance Law & # 39; to investigate.
& # 39; We are talking about abuse of power to undermine the separation of powers. We are talking about breaking the Emoluments clause of the Constitution. And in a process of deposition that everyone forgets, Trump's lawyers must make real arguments. They can't rely on the Giuliani-type spider, & he snorted.
Allan Lichtman & # 39; s 13 & # 39; keys & # 39; for predicting presidential elections
The American university professor Allan Lichtman lists 13 leading indicators that, according to him, will indicate whether the presidential candidate of a current president's political party will win the popular vote in an election.
If six of these statements are incorrect, Lichtman says, the White House is likely to change sides. He said in May 2019 that Trump loses on items 1, 11 and 12, but that list could swell if House Democrats accuse him.
- Party Mandate: After the mid-term elections, the current party has more seats in the United States House of Representatives than after the previous mid-term elections.
- Contest: There is no serious competition for the existing party performance.
- incumbency: The current party candidate is the current president.
- Third party: There is no significant independent or independent campaign.
- Short term economy: The economy is not in a recession during the election campaign.
- Long term economy: The real economic growth per capita during the term is equal to or exceeds the average growth during the previous two months.
- Policy change: The incumbent government influences major changes in national policy.
- Social unrest: There is no long-term social unrest during the term.
- Scandal: The incumbent government has not been infected by a major scandal.
- Foreign / military failure: The incumbent government does not suffer a major failure in foreign or military matters.
- Foreign / military success: The incumbent government achieves great success in foreign or military matters.
- The sitting charisma: The seated party candidate is charismatic or a national hero.
- Challenger charisma: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero.
Lichtman warned that a deposition led by landlord Nancy Pelosi would have an adverse effect on the Democrats, even though Bill Clinton's deposition led to Republican losses in the House.
"They won a much bigger prize, the presidency, because the cloud of scandals weakened the polls for Al Gore in 2000," he claimed.
With the release of his book from April 2017, Lichtman hit the interview circuit and insisted that Trump & # 39; be more vulnerable than any other president in the history of the nation. & # 39;
Describing & # 39; chilling & # 39; parallels between the current president and Richard Nixon during one GQ interview at that time, he said: & Trump is very thin in nature and regards the media as his enemy. He always believes in the attack, and in the importance of even dealing with people. & # 39;
& # 39; He has a preference for lying and for fending off controversies instead of following it up. & # 39;
& # 39; Finally, like Nixon, Trump seems to be deprived of some guiding principles, except to do what is best for himself, & # 39; Lichtman cut. & # 39; This lack of guiding principles, for a president, is very dangerous. & # 39;
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