The betting markets have changed: they now have the Coalition as favorites to form a government after the next federal election, not the current Labor Party.
Sportsbet has the Coalition at $1.80 and Labor at $2. The TAB has Labor at $2.10 and the Coalition at $1.72.
Clearly the impact of cost of living pressures, a decreasing likelihood of an interest rate cut early next year and criticism surrounding Albo’s Qantas upgrades and holiday home purchase $4.3 million beachfront property has spooked gamblers.
They are investing more money in the Coalition than in the Labor Party, thus reducing the Opposition’s chances.
Perhaps the election of Donald Trump has also helped change sentiment since his resounding victory last Tuesday.
But before we continue, a warning to anyone who sees this change as a clear sign that Labour’s chances in the next election are dwindling. Bet responsibly!
Betting markets, while usually a good guide to which party is likely to form government, become more accurate the closer we get to election day and as more money is poured into the pot.
Historically, political betting markets tend to fill up with bets closer to election day, which won’t take place for another six months.
Betting markets usually offer a good guide as to which party will form the government.
Many things can change in six months and the prime minister can choose the time of the elections.
He’ll pay it when he thinks he can win, you can bet on that. In other words, he still very much has the whip.
Furthermore, no first-term government has lost a bid for re-election at the federal level in this country since 1931, so history is on Labour’s side.
However, many first-term governments have come close to losing.
John Howard’s Coalition did well in the 1998 election with less than 50 per cent of the two-party votes.
Julia Gillard’s Labor Party was reduced to a minority government in the 2010 election.
And Malcolm Turnbull’s team won the 2016 election with the slimmest possible majority.
All of these first-term governments were re-elected, although just barely.
Albo’s destiny could well be to win badly and form only a minority government with the support of the Greens.
But in my opinion, winning one way or another is still the most likely outcome, despite what the betting markets and opinion polls currently say.
Yesterday’s Newspoll reflected the betting markets, with the two Labor parties voting behind the Coalition’s 49-51 per cent.
But one person who should be watching the shift in betting markets with more than a little interest is Andrew Leigh, a Labor Party minister who works for Albo. He is the assistant minister to the Treasurer.
In a past life, Dr Leigh was a professor at ANU and wrote an academic study for the Australian Journal of Political Science on the accuracy of betting markets.
Economist Andrew Leigh, who works for Albo as deputy treasurer, wrote an academic study on the accuracy of betting markets in predicting election results.
By crunching the numbers on the accuracy of the betting market versus other metrics for predicting election outcomes, such as opinion polls, Dr. Leigh found that Betting markets are easily the most accurate way to predict election results.
Maybe that’s why you’ve already sent your resume to universities that plan to return after the next election?
But I’m sure the good doctor would say it’s too early to read too much into the predictions of reverse betting, as already mentioned.
However, they must worry the Albo team. You need to find some momentum.
It seems his higher education bribe, which reduced 20 per cent of people’s HECS debts, has not changed their fortunes, at least not yet.
The betting markets got it right in the US race and also in the recent Queensland election.
Punters will no doubt be watching closely between now and the federal election to see if it becomes a case of three times lucky.