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As the NFL regular season nears its end, there’s a big gap between the league’s best teams and those praying for the offseason to arrive.
Many teams lack talent, are hit by injuries, or both. That’s why the favorites did well in Week 15. The favorites went 11-5 against the spread. During the final three weeks of the season, it will be difficult to defeat some of the big underdogs who seem to have done it all.
Here’s a look at Week 16 of the NFL season from a betting perspective, with all the odds. by BetMGM:
Thursday night: Chargers favored over Broncos
The point spread for Thursday night’s game refuses to change to the Los Angeles Chargers -3 against the Denver Broncos, which is telling. The Chargers remain 2.5-point favorites. NFL bettors know that 3 is a key number and until Thursday morning bettors had refused to give the Broncos a full field goal. A Chargers -2.5 line appears to be trying to entice bettors to take Los Angeles.
Maybe it’s because of last week. The Broncos didn’t play well but beat the Colts 31-13. Meanwhile, the Chargers were defeated 40-17 at home by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The Chargers won the first meeting between the teams, but it will be difficult to sweep.
We are at the point in the season where there are games on Saturdays. We have the four Christmas Day teams facing each other, so they will all get the same break when they play on Wednesday. In the first game, the Houston Texans play the Kansas City Chiefs. Patrick Mahomes’ status was in doubt at the start of the week, but with practices complete on Tuesday and Wednesday, it appears he will play. That’s why the Chiefs are 3.5-point favorites. The Chiefs have had trouble covering spreads this season, but they did it last Sunday against the Browns.
The second game could end up deciding the AFC North. The Baltimore Ravens host the Pittsburgh Steelers and are a pretty strong favorite by 6.5 points. Pittsburgh would clinch the division with a win, while the Ravens would move back into a tie for first place with a win. The Steelers won the first meeting 18-16, their eighth victory in nine tries over Baltimore. As one-sided as the rivalry has been and how close Ravens-Steelers games tend to be, the sheer variety is surprising.
New QB: Falcons are big favorites this week
Michael Penix Jr. gets his first chance to be a starter in the NFL, and the Atlanta Falcons found a soft landing spot for him. The rookie faces the New York Giants, who have looked terrible for weeks. Penix has never thrown a meaningful pass in the NFL and the Falcons have looked bad for weeks, but Atlanta remains an 8.5-point favorite. The big difference is due to the Giants’ ineptitude, the Falcons likely rallying around Penix in his first start, and the fact that Penix can’t be a big downgrade on the struggling Kirk Cousins.
There has been a interesting line movement. The line jumped from -8.5 to the Falcons’ -10 on Tuesday morning, when it became clear the Falcons were considering a quarterback change. The change was made and the line was finally bet back to 8.5. It’s still surprising to see such a big line for an unproven rookie quarterback replacing a veteran late in the season, but it’s understandable.
Player of the Week Prop: Sam LaPorta Receiving Yards
The loss of David Montgomery is huge for the Detroit Lions, and that will shift more of the offense to Jahmyr Gibbs. But the Lions have said they don’t want to overload Gibbs. That could mean more for receivers. That includes tight end Sam LaPorta.
LaPorta hasn’t had a great season, but he’s coming off a big game with seven catches and 111 yards. That was largely due to a game script in which the Lions chased the Buffalo Bills and passed a lot. However, it makes sense for the Lions to continue feeding him. The Chicago Bears haven’t been a difficult matchup for opposing tight ends and the passing defense in general has struggled lately. LaPorta has even odds of reaching 50 yards against the Bears. That seems reasonable. Jared Goff throwing for 300 yards at +188 odds also seems achievable.
Interesting loser: 49ers are road favorites in Miami
There are reasons to believe that the San Francisco 49ers should be the favorites against the Miami Dolphins. They are resting a little more. Analysts still believe the 49ers are better than their 6-8 record. But what have the 49ers done this season to be 1-point road favorites against any decent team?
San Francisco is perhaps the league’s biggest disappointment, and last week’s 12-6 loss to the Rams likely ruined any faint playoff hopes. It’s hard to imagine the 49ers will be too excited for the rest of the season. The 49ers are talented enough to beat a Dolphins team coming off their own crushing loss, but it’s still surprising to see them favored.
Sunday night: Jeans again?
The NFL did not flex the Tampa Bay Buccaneers against the Dallas Cowboys, which is disappointing. Sure, the Cowboys will get ratings as usual, but this isn’t the best product the league has to offer on Sunday night. At least the Cowboys haven’t given up completely. They have won three of four. They are still underdogs at home by 4 points, which is fair. The Buccaneers have been better than their 8-6 record would indicate and still need to win games to ensure the Atlanta Falcons don’t regain the division lead. At least if you want to pick the Cowboys, you’ll get a team that’s still competing.
Monday Night: Ugly Saints-Packers Showdown
At one time, maybe the New Orleans Saints’ game against the Green Bay Packers on Monday night at the end of the season made sense to the NFL scheduling people, but now it’s really a disaster. The Saints are decimated by injuries, the Packers are playing very well and are a heavy 14.5-point favorite for Monday night. It’s hard to pick any NFL favorite with more than two touchdowns, but it’s also hard to trust the Saints. The Saints’ comeback to nearly beat the Washington Commanders last week perhaps shows they can make this failed Monday night matchup compelling.