A pollster widely known as the “Nostradamus of U.S. presidential elections” appeared speechless Wednesday as he realized his prediction was wrong.
“I don’t understand it,” Professor Allan Lichtman was heard saying in his live broadcast of the elections since they concludedwhen Trump’s landslide victory became clear.
Lichtman, 77, has successfully predicted nine out of ten elections since 1984.
I was sure that Kamala Harris would win, at first in a landslide and then in a trickle.
But when Trump cruised to victory last night, Lichtman’s miscalculation was inevitable.
“I’m not doing any interviews, I’m done,” he said.
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“Time is running out,” Professor Allan Lichtman was heard saying in the live broadcast of the election posted on his YouTube account. He previously predicted a Kamala Harris victory, something that did not come true Wednesday morning.
“Trump has maintained his advantage in Pennsylvania,” he said around 1 a.m., before this and six others – all of them “swing” types – fell into the hands of the former president.
“It’s a good thing I have nothing to do tomorrow,” continued the 77-year-old who predicted a Trump victory in 2016.
He then attacked Trump thoroughly, claiming that the president will not finish his second term.
‘Do you know what happens if Trump wins? “He won’t serve a full term, he’ll hand it over to JD Vance,” he said, citing Trump’s advanced age.
His son, Sam, seemed equally perplexed by the results unfolding in real time.
Lichtman thanked his fans for tuning in before signing off for the night.
‘I’m encouraged by all the kind emails I’ve received, lots of people saying we should keep doing this show.
“Tomorrow I’m going to sleep all day,” he added immediately afterwards.
At several points, the experienced professor appeared to grimace and caress his face as he followed the results on the screen.
Within an hour, the American University professor was calling it a day, ending a six-hour broadcast in which his prediction for this year’s race failed. “I’m not going to do any interviews, I’m done with that,” Lichtman was heard saying as the live broadcast ended.
Last month, Lichtman came forward to claim that Harris had met what he believed were her critical goals for victory: He told CTV News that her made-up metrics are “based on a fundamental understanding of how American presidential elections actually work.” “.
The forecasts were surprising, coming from a man who had accurately predicted almost every US presidential election since 1984.
Still, Lichtman has been wrong in the past, though only once, in 2000, when he wrongly predicted an Al Gore victory.
In that case, part of the prediction came true, in that Gore won the popular vote.
However, this time, that was far from the case.
Trump, in turn, on Wednesday became the first Republican in two decades to secure the popular vote, capturing states such as Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, and proving Lichtman wrong on the process.
The ease with which Trump achieved victory baffled Lichtman.
‘That? That is not possible,’ he exclaimed. since projections showed that Trump would win the Hispanic vote in the very important Pennsylvania.
“The world has turned upside down, that’s all I can say,” Lichtman added another time, as more states turned red.
He massaged his temples well into the wind while saying there was “nothing positive yet for Harris,” then faced a slap in the face when it became clear that the seven states considered key to victory had gone to Trump. .
At that point, the visibly defeated academic thanked viewers for tuning in, including those who mockingly donated to the languishing livestream.
He went on to admit that his so-called ‘Keys (to victory) were wrong,’ pointing to his 13 keys to victory method of which he said Harris had fulfilled eight of them.
Last month, he came forward to claim that Harris had met what he believed were her victory goals: telling CTV News that her metrics are “based on a fundamental understanding of how American presidential elections really work.” “The polls don’t say anything,” he said.
“Many people believe that the future of the country is at stake and that American democracy could be a thing of the past,” Lichtman concluded, adding: “I don’t think it’s an illegitimate fear.”
“I’m very worried about the future of our elections, you know… democracy is precious but, like all precious things, it can be destroyed,” he added.
Lichtman’s 13 keys include things like the position, the charisma of the incumbent, the charisma of the challenger, foreign policy failure, and foreign policy success.
In an interview with the New York Times, he said Trump had five of those metrics against him, enough for the professor to incorrectly discern that he would lose.
