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Fantasy football analyst Sal Vetri offers the keys to a Week 12 victory.
Pick and Play of the Week: Jonnu Smith vs. NE
Smith is coming off his best week of the season. In Week 10, Smith produced 100 yards and two touchdowns on eight targets against the Raiders. Smith has now earned six or more goals in five of his last six games. This is something only three other tight ends have done during this stretch. Smith now leads the Dolphins since Week 5 with a 21% target share. He also ranks third in yards per run and second in yards after the catch among TEs during this time.
Smith is a great fit for the bye in Week 12. But there’s a chance he could be much more than that. He has been one of the top two options in the Dolphins’ passing attack over the past two months. Smith is closing in on being ranked among the top 10 TEs the rest of the season. This week he faces the Patriots, who rank in the bottom 10 in coverage. according to PFF. You can pick up and play with Smith this week.
Incomplete Spot of the Week: D’Andre Swift vs. MIN
Swift had another big fantasy day in Week 11. He was able to produce over 80 yards for the sixth time in his last seven games. As of Week 4, Swift ranks sixth in fantasy points per game among all backs. That’s how good it has been. But it wasn’t all good news for Swift in Week 11. His underlying usage actually got worse with new play-caller Thomas Brown. Backup Roschon Johnson saw a season-high 44% of snaps and handled 100% of the two-minute offensive snaps and the majority of goal-line touches. This led to Swift seeing just 48% of carries in the backfield, his second-lowest mark in a game this year.
That’s not great, and neither is their matchup this week against the Vikings. Minnesota allows the second-fewest rushing yards per play and simply held the Titans’ backfield to 15 yards on 12 carries in Week 11. It’s tough to sit Swift with six teams resting, but temper your expectations in this tough matchup.
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Best spot of the week: Bucky Irving vs. NYG
Irving returns from his bye this week and finds himself in a big matchup. The Bucs are 5-point favorites against Tommy DeVito and the Giants. There is a good chance that New York will fall behind in this game, which creates a positive game script for Irving to see more carries. But things get even better as the Giants struggle to defend the run. New York allows the most rushing yards per play this season according to NFL Pro.
The Giants also allow the third most explosive runs of 10+ yards this season. This is the ideal matchup for Irving, who has produced an explosive career ranking 12th highest in the league. Irving is also averaging 5.6 yards per touch this season and ranks third in broken tackle rate. He’s coming off a great performance in Week 10 against the 49ers, where he totaled 87 yards and a touchdown on 16 touches. Expect this efficiency to continue in a strong matchup this week against the Giants and there’s even a chance we’ll see his role increase after the bye week. Don’t be surprised to see the rookie win the first 20-carry game of his career.
Must Start: Brian Robinson Jr. vs. DAL
Robinson Jr. had one of the toughest matchups a running back can encounter last week, facing the Eagles’ No. 1 defense on a short week. Despite this difficult situation, Robinson was able to produce over 70 total yards and a touchdown. The most impressive part was that this was Robinson’s first game back from a hamstring and knee injury. He returned from these injuries and resumed his role as the RB1 commander, winning 67% of the backfield carries, his second-best usage of the season.
Robinson enters Week 12 with a much better matchup against the Cowboys. Dallas ranks 30th in run defense according to PFF and allows the fourth-most fantasy points per game for the position. Expect Robinson to carry the ball more than 16 times and push toward 100 yards and a touchdown. He is a must-have runner this week.
A new WR1 for the rest of the season: Jauan Jennings
Jennings continues to operate as the 49ers’ number one receiver. In Week 11, he led the team with 10 receptions for 91 yards and a score. He was consistently Brock Purdy’s first read in clutch situations. Jennings scored six of his 11 third-down targets last week. This is the money cut in the NFL: the cut where you lean on your best and most trusted player, and lately, that’s been Jennings for the 49ers.
In three games this season with either Brandon Aiyuk or Deebo Samuel Sr. out, Jennings has averaged 11.3 targets and 116 yards per game. He has never seen fewer than 11 targets in any of these three contests and is the No. 1 fantasy receiver in those three weeks. This is still a small sample size, but it’s increasingly clear that Jennings is the 49ers’ No. 1 receiver, ahead of Samuel. This week, Jennings faces a Packers secondary that may be missing cornerback Jaire Alexander and that only allowed Caleb Williams to complete 74% of his passes last week. Jennings is on the verge of a top-12 receiver this week and for the rest of the season. Make sure he’s in your lineup even if Brock Purdy were to miss with a shoulder injury.
Week’s farewell filler: Drake Maye vs. MIA
We have six teams off this week. Some top quarterbacks like Josh Allen and Joe Burrow are unavailable to fantasy managers. A filler is needed for the bye week and the perfect option is Drake Maye. Maye has finished as a top-10 QB in two of his five full starts this season and has never finished worse than QB18 in a given week. This is impressive for a rookie quarterback, but it’s even more impressive considering his best receiver has been Kayshon Boutte, and he plays behind arguably the worst offensive line in the league.
Not to mention, Maye had to face the Titans and Bears defenses in two of his last three games. Both teams rank in the top five in limiting the efficiency of opposing passes. But despite these tough confrontations, Maye was able to achieve success. He completed 71% of his passes against the Titans and averaged a season-high 7.4 yards per attempt against the Bears. Maye is also coming off one of his best outings of the season, where he completed 75% of his passes for 309 total yards and two touchdowns against the Rams in Week 11.
His composure under pressure and strong attacking ability make for a solid start this week, even if the matchup isn’t the best against the Dolphins. If you need help at QB this week, pick and play Maye as your bye week filler.
Recovery of the week: Calvin Ridley vs. HOU
Ridley had just four receptions for 58 yards last week against the Vikings. This was his first game under 70 yards or eight targets since DeAndre Hopkins was traded to the Chiefs. Entering Week 11, Ridley was averaging an elite 36% targeting percentage and 100 yards per game in the three games since Hopkins left the team. Ridley came back down to earth in Week 11, but still earned a team-high 22% target share.
This week, Ridley looks to bounce back against the Texans as an eight-point underdog. The Titans should trail often in this one, which sets up nicely for Ridley to see more passing volume. Believe it or not, Will Levis has been solid since returning from injury. In Week 10 against the Chargers, he completed 78% of his passes and posted a top-10 fantasy finish. Then in Week 11, Levis produced 295 yards at an average of 9.5 yards per attempt. His play has been much better than what we got earlier this season. Improved quarterback play and game writing have Ridley primed for a strong rebound in Week 12.
Upward trend: Buccaneers WR Mike Evans
Evans is expected to return from injury this week. He has missed the last three games with a hamstring injury that he reaggravated in Week 7 against the Ravens. Evans will return to face a Giants secondary that ranks 16th in coverage this season according to PFF. This is by no means a bad secondary, but it’s not great either.
New York allows the seventh-most explosive defensive plays this season and that sets up nicely for Evans, who has eight deep targets in five complete starts. Evans has finished as a top-10 receiver in three of his five full starts and has earned a solid 23% target share in these five contests. But this should only increase now that Chris Godwin is out for the year.
Godwin has earned a 27% target share this season and with him off the field, Evans should threaten 10+ targets. That starts this week with a good matchup against the Giants, but the good matchups will continue the rest of the year. Evans will face the Panthers twice, the Raiders and the Cowboys over the next six weeks. All of these teams rank in the bottom 10 in secondary play this season. according to NFL Pro. Evans is rising at the perfect time as the fantasy playoffs approach.
Downtrend: Vikings RB Aaron Jones
Jones entered Week 11 battling a rib injury. This was the fourth time this season he suffered an injury that would limit him or keep him out of practice the following week. Jones was limited in practice heading into Week 11, but was able to play on Sunday. However, he saw his worst usage in a full game this season, winning just 55% of snaps and 50% of quick attempts.
Cam Akers was more involved for the Vikings in Week 11, turning 12 touches into 36 yards and a touchdown. Jones was likely limited in this game due to his rib injury, but there’s also a chance the Vikings will try to lighten his load going forward. He turns 30 next month and has already battled rib, hamstring, hip and ankle injuries this season. Week 11 has created a lot of questions for Jones’ fantasy managers entering Week 12. Will his usage improve with another week of rest and recovery? Will Cam Akers still be very involved? This week against the Bears should answer a lot of these questions about Jones’ role for the rest of the season.
He’s still a top-20 running back this week, but he’d start Chuba Hubbard, Rhamondre Stevenson and Brian Robinson Jr. above him right now.