A prognosticator who has successfully predicted every presidential winner for the past 40 years has revealed Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s prospects for this year’s election.
Allan Lichtman, a history professor at American University in Washington, DC, has ended RFK’s hopes of entering the White House.
He dismissed him as a “third-party candidate” who would likely “fade away as the election approaches.”
“It’s not even clear how many ballots RFK junior will receive,” he said. fox 5describing why he doesn’t see him as a threat to Biden’s Democratic nomination.
Lichtman devised a system for predicting election results, which he calls “13 Keys to the White House.” He recently said that “a lot of things would have to go wrong” for Joe Biden to lose the White House to Donald Trump.
Allan Lichtman, a history professor at American University in Washington, DC, has ended RFK’s hopes of entering the White House.
He dismissed RFK as a “third-party candidate” who would likely “fade away as the election approaches.”
He says his keying technique allows him to “predict the outcome of the popular vote solely based on historical factors and not the use of candidate preference polls, tactics or campaign events.”
It judges candidates based on 13 key criteria, and its prediction is who wins the most.
One of the keys has to do with third party candidates. But Lichtman ruled out that Biden has lost that key and said RFK’s 8.5 percent polling lead will likely fade as November approaches.
He also responded to experts who say Biden should resign to make way for a younger candidate, insisting that the Democrat’s “only chance” of winning is his current candidacy.
Even though polls show Biden in trouble nationally and trailing in several swing states, Lichtman believes it is still in the president’s favor to retain office, with two of his 13 keys (the lack of a serious primary challenge and ownership) already in favor of Biden.
“It’s two keys from the top,” he said. “That means six more keys would have to fall to predict their defeat. “A lot of things would have to go wrong for Biden to lose.”
However, he acknowledged that the president has already lost two keys.
The first is the mandate, after losing seats in the United States House of Representatives in 2022, and the second is the charisma.
“He’s not John F. Kennedy or Franklin Roosevelt,” Lichtman said. “There are also four unstable keys that would have to fall to predict Biden’s defeat.”
Among them are his performance in foreign policy, social unrest and the threat posed by a third rival.
‘Third party, what force will RFK emerge as we get closer to the election? It’s been all over the map so far.
However, he added that he “really doesn’t expect” Biden to lose in this key.
On the contrary, there are currently prolific scenes of social unrest across the country as university campuses erupt in pro-Palestine protests over the Israeli bombing of Gaza.
Even though polls show Biden in trouble nationally and trailing in several swing states, Lichtman believes he is still in favor of the president to retain office.
Lichtman devised a system to predict election results, which he calls ’13 Keys to the White House.’
While he said it’s too early to know this year’s outcome, he declared that “a lot of things would have to go wrong” for Joe Biden to lose to Donald Trump in November.
According to Lichtman’s system, the conflict and war in Ukraine can also prove fatal for Biden.
“A lot of things would have to go wrong in these keys for Biden to lose, but that’s still possible,” Lichtman added.
The professor harshly criticized experts who rely on polls for their predictions, insisting they only present a snapshot of sentiment at the time.
An example of this was the 1988 election, in which Republican candidate George HW Bush trailed his Democratic opponent, Michael Dukakis, by 17 percent.
But Bush ultimately won his by 49 states to one.
Lichtman has successfully predicted the winner in every election since 1984.
It should be noted that while he was technically wrong in 2000 when he predicted that Al Gore would win, he believes this was a stolen election and said Gore won the popular vote.
However, he also takes credit for predicting Trump’s victory in 2016 despite Hillary Clinton winning the popular vote.
He admits that, regardless of the outcome, no system can be completely infallible.
“It’s stressful because there are a lot of people who would love to see me fail.” What if he does? ‘I’m human. That doesn’t mean my system is bad. Nothing is perfect in the human world.’
