Here’s a disturbing scenario as we wait to find out who will become the next president of the United States.
All polls suggest a close battle. Much of the rhetoric suggests that whatever the outcome, it will be a controversial result, with recounts in key battleground states.
A Supreme Court challenge similar to what happened in 2000, when George W. Bush defeated Al Gore, is also not out of the question.
And there is even the possibility of a tie in the Electoral College votes.
When you consider how volatile American politics is right now, what both presidential candidates are saying about each other, and in the context of allegations that the 2020 election was stolen and led to riots at the Capitol, a protracted process to determine the next president will create enormous tensions.
And this is where a potential nightmare scenario could unfold.
It would be the president of the Senate, as the constitutionally appointed official who certifies the result of the presidential election in a joint session of Congress, who would ultimately declare the winner.
Guess who it is? Democratic candidate and current Vice President Kamala Harris, that’s who!
Imagine a scenario where, after all the potential recounts, court challenges, and claims of a rigged election, Kamala Harris approves her own victory.
Trump supporters would go crazy. Trump would go crazy, writes Peter van Onselen
Imagine a scenario where, after all the potential recounts, court challenges, and allegations of a rigged election, Harris approves her own victory.
Trump supporters would go crazy. Trump would go crazy.
Alternatively, she will face the indignity of condoning Trump’s victory, after all the nasty things he has said about her and her campaign.
But it is the first scenario that is likely to cause instability.
The date of the joint session will be January 6 of next year. In such a set of circumstances, tensions will rise and previous riots in DC might seem tame in comparison. Back then, it was Trump’s vice president, Mike Pence, who approved Joe Biden’s victory, and even that simple constitutionally defined duty was considered controversial by some Trump supporters.
No screenwriter of the most avant-garde of political thrillers could come up with a juicier scenario than one that is highly probable once all the votes have been counted.
But before we get there, today we’ll look at how the votes stack up. Assuming all other state-by-state results come out as expected, there are seven key states in the battleground:
1. Michigan
2. Pennsylvania
3.Wisconsin
4. North Carolina
5.Arizona
6. Georgia
7. Snowfall
The first three are the so-called ‘blue wall’. America’s traditional working-class industrial zone supported Biden last time. If all three states back Harris this time, she is almost certain to win.
Conversely, as long as Trump takes back North Carolina, Arizona, and Georgia (all of which he won against Hillary Clinton in 2016), he can win by simply claiming one state inside the blue wall to emerge victorious.
Nevada is a very small state, but it gets interesting depending on where other states finish because whoever wins could make the result a tie in the electoral college, which will send the result to Congress to decide the winner.
So sit back and watch the results come in, but don’t make the mistake of assuming the first clues are important. In US elections you see big swings as large amounts of votes arrive for particular areas that vote very differently from each other, changing the numbers you will see dramatically and suddenly.
My kiss of death? A Trump victory… but that’s more of a guess than a prediction, and I’d be very happy to be wrong.
This election is too close to call.