Storm Rafael is brewing in the Caribbean and its effects could affect the United States.
The National Hurricane Center (NHC) issued a warning on Monday that the storm, currently named Tropical Cyclone Eighteen, could hit the Cayman Islands within the next 36 hours.
Strong winds could cause Rafael to reach Category 1 hurricane status in the western Caribbean on Wednesday, but storm trackers said it should weaken to a tropical storm as it moves toward the U.S. Gulf Coast states during the weekend.
As a result, Louisiana, Mississippi and Texas could see heavy rain and flooding on Saturday, while the southwestern part of Florida could see minor impacts starting Thursday.
“Interests in the Florida Keys should closely monitor this system as tropical storm watches may be required for portions of these areas today,” the NHC shared.
The agency noted that the system is expected to venture into the Gulf of Mexico later this week, but given significant uncertainties in the track and intensity of the long-range forecast, it is too early to determine what, if any, impacts. , could occur.
November is the last month of hurricane season, but up to three more named storms could form before it ends.
The National Hurricane Center has issued a hurricane warning for parts of the Caribbean. The agency is also monitoring the storm’s path as it could cross Florida
Forecasters are tracking Storm Rafael, which is expected to reach the United States by the end of the week.
AccuWeather’s top hurricane expert Alex DaSilva said: “There have only been three hurricanes that made landfall in the US during the month of November since 1900.
‘They all made landfall in Florida. We have never seen a tropical storm or hurricane make landfall in Texas or Louisiana during the month of November.’
The storm is currently a disturbance in the Caribbean, with a maximum wind speed of 35 miles per hour as it moves about nine miles per hour northward.
Once the wind speed reaches 39 miles per hour, it will become a tropical storm, but will need to reach 74 miles per hour to reach hurricane status.
NHC data predicts the storm’s high-speed winds will reach the western tip of Florida on Wednesday morning and Louisiana, Mississippi, on Thursday night.
Forecasters are unsure if the storm’s intensity will remain the same when it reaches Florida later this week, but they said it could cause localized wind damage and flash flooding in some areas.
“The system is forecast to enter the western Gulf of Mexico later this week, but given the significant uncertainties in the long-range forecast track and intensity, it is too early to determine what, if any, impacts could occur.” said the NHC.
The agency has placed Cuba under a hurricane watch and Jamaica is under a tropical storm warning as of Monday morning.
The storm was located about 220 miles south of Jamaica as of 7 a.m. ET on Monday.
‘Precipitation totals of between three and six inches and locally up to nine inches are expected. Flooding could occur in parts of Jamaica and Cuba, with possible landslides,’ the center said.
The storm will affect states along the Gulf Coast, including Louisiana and Texas, in November for the first time in history.
The storm has currently reached speeds of 35 miles per hour, but could upgrade to hurricane status when it crosses Jamaica and Cuba on Wednesday.
It also comes as AccuWeather meteorologists are tracking a second storm in the Atlantic basin heading east toward Portugal.
The tropical development, which formed on Sunday, is located north of the Caribbean and will be monitored until November 8 when it reaches the Bahamas.
However, strong wind shear in the area means the storm will be less likely to develop, but forecasters warned its proximity to land “warrants close monitoring.”
Wind shear could slow the storm as it enters the Gulf of Mexico by removing heat and moisture from the center of the hurricane.
Since 1900, only three hurricanes have made landfall in the United States in November, all of which hit Florida – but this is the first time tropical storm or hurricane will make landfall in Texas either Louisiana.
AccuWeather Senior Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva said, “We are in the final month of hurricane season and expect one to three named storms to develop this month.”
This is the 17th storm of this year’s hurricane season, which runs through November 30.
“This has been an extremely impactful hurricane season and it’s not over yet,” DaSilva said.
“AccuWeather experts estimate that the total damages and economic losses caused by the storms that made landfall in the United States this year are approaching $500 billion.”
