Summer is officially less than a month away – and forecasters expect large swaths of the country to be warmer than average this year.
The National Weather Service has released its latest seasonal forecast which predicts that much of the country will experience above average temperatures between June and August.
The southwestern states of Arizona and New Mexico have the highest likelihood of above-normal temperatures, with about a 69% chance of above averages. The east coast will also benefit from warmer weather.
But the forecast also shows that it will be wetter than usual on the east coast and around the southern highlands.
The forecast comes after the United States experienced its third hottest summer on record in 2022 – a year marked by extreme weather events including multiple heat waves and worsening droughts in California.
The National Weather Service’s latest seasonal temperature forecast for June, July and August shows much of the country is expected to get warmer than average in 2023
But forecasters also said large chunks of the country should also expect more rainfall than usual
Last year was the third warming on record in the United States and was marked by wildfires and a mega-drought in California.
A heat wave in New York in August 2022
A woman pours water on her face to cool off in a fountain in Domino Park, Brooklyn with the Manhattan skyline in the background as the sun sets during a heat wave on July 24, 2022
Much of the country, from Texas to New England, has about a 50-60% chance of above-average temperatures.
The Pacific Northwest is expected to be drier than usual and has a 33-50% chance of above temperature averages.
The average July temperature in New York is around 84F, but last year it peaked at 102F.
In Pheonix, Arizona, the average high is around 105F in July. Last year, temperatures for the month peaked at 111F
Average highs in Albuquerque, New Mexico in July are around 93F. Last year’s high for the month was 95F.
The forecast comes two weeks after the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said there was about a 90% chance of an El Niño weather event this summer.
El Niño is a warming of the ocean surface, or above-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs), in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean.
UK forecasters predicted in December that 2023 would likely be even warmer than last year.
But new records could be set in 2024 if El Niño forms, as this risks pushing average temperatures even higher.
A runner climbs the stairs of Buffalo Bayou Park during a heat wave in Houston, Texas, U.S., Monday, July 11, 2022. Texas residents and businesses have been urged to conserve electricity during the heatwave
People cool off along the ocean on Santa Monica Beach amid an intense heat wave in Southern California on September 4, 2022
An aerial view of cattle grazing in drought conditions June 21, 2022 near Ojai, California
In an aerial view, boats are moored in the Feather River branch of drought-stricken Lake Oroville July 6, 2022 near Oroville, California. Scientists have called the mega-drought the driest 22-year period in more than 1,200 years
The United Nations warned last week that 2023-2027 is almost certain to be the hottest five-year period on record. He said greenhouse gases combined with El Niño would drive up temperatures.
Global temperatures are expected to soon exceed the more ambitious target set in the Paris climate accords, with a two-thirds chance one of the next five years to do so, the UN’s World Meteorological Organization has said.
The eight hottest years on record have all been between 2015 and 2022 – but temperatures are expected to rise further as climate change accelerates.
“There is a 98% chance that at least one of the next five years, and the five-year period as a whole, will be the warmest on record,” the WMO said.
The 2015 Paris Agreement saw countries agree to cap global warming at “well below” two degrees Celsius above average levels measured between 1850 and 1900 – and 1.5C if possible.
The global average temperature in 2022 was 1.15°C above the 1850-1900 average.
The WMO said there is a 66% chance that annual global surface temperatures will exceed 1.5C above pre-industrial levels for at least one of the years 2023-2027, with a range of 1.1 ° C to 1.8 ° C predicted for each of these five years. .