Table of Contents
We’ve moved on to December, the final segment of the fantasy football season. With most leagues in the final week of the fantasy regular season, it’s time to start breaking down those playoff schedules. Today we will address the first task, Accelerate the schedule for the fantasy playoffs.
It is necessary to establish a series of warnings from the beginning:
The rankings below show how teams are looking for run defense opponents in Weeks 15-17, inclusive. I’ve used some statistical analysis (weighted by the last two months’ results) and observation, with a little special sauce mixed in.
Your use of this list will depend on your unique position. Maybe you don’t have to play in Week 15. Maybe you don’t make it to Week 17. Running these stats based on three cumulative matchups is a quick and dirty way to do the math, but it’s obviously not perfect.
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I didn’t take into account the divisions between home and the road or the possible weather. And the strength of an offense’s running game is irrelevant to this exercise. Just because the Raiders have a good schedule and the Texans have a bad one doesn’t mean I want you to bench Joe Mixon instead of Alexander Mattison.
Next week we look at the Strength of Schedule passing game for the fantasy playoffs.
Again, the opponents listed are for Weeks 15, 16, and 17. If your league uses Week 18, that investigation is up to you.
The fantasy gods love you
1. Raiders: (Falcons, Jaguars, @Saints): I’m curious to see if there’s any staying power to what Sincere McCormick showed off last week. But keep in mind that the Raiders are in last place in percentage of ground plays.
2. Titans: (Bengals, @Colts, @Jaguars): Tony Pollard has been solid all year despite playing through nagging injuries. The key is for the Titans to keep the games competitive; On four different occasions, Pollard has failed to reach 10 carries.
3. Cardinals: (Patriots, @Panthers, @Rams): Given James Conner’s age and workload, Trey Benson is a worthwhile contingency reserve.
4. Lions: (Bills, @Bears, @49ers): It’s time to start another long streak of touchdowns. The Lions were unlucky in the Thanksgiving game, but their line is a steamroller and the running backs complement each other well.
5. Eagles: (Steelers, @Commanders, Cowboys): The Eagles have the highest run rate, by far, in the league. If Philadelphia allowed Saquon Barkley to score some one-yard touchdowns (he doesn’t have any), they would really be destroying the league. Barkley’s last seven scores have come from 19 yards and longer, and his average touchdown comes from an absurd distance of 28.5 yards.
6. Colts: (@Broncos, Titans, @Giants): Unfortunately for Jonathan Taylor, many of the rushing touchdowns will fall to Anthony Richardson.
7. Jets: (@Jaguars, Rams, @Bills): Since Breece Hall isn’t 100%, make sure Braelon Allen isn’t floating on his waiver wire.
8. Falcons: (@Raiders, Giants, @Commanders): Kirk Cousins is the cause of all the pain, but Bijan Robinson has lived up to the early billing.
9. Buccaneers: (@Chargers, @Cowboys, Panthers): I hesitate to use the phrase “league winner,” but Bucky Irving gives off those vibes. And maybe things are coming together in that backfield; Sean Tucker has only five plays in the last three games.
We can work with this
10. Ravens: (@Giants, Steelers, @Texans): Derrick Henry’s career YPC increases as the season progresses. December is your money month..
11. Rams: (@49ers, @Jets, Cardinals): Blake Corum saw his most snap action last week; Perhaps it was a silent (and brief) punishment for Kyren Williams, but let’s be careful.
12. Packers: (@Seahawks, Saints, @Vikings): The Pack has the fourth-highest run rate in the league. Josh Jacobs has been overshadowed by Barkley and Henry, but he’s also been a home run.
13. Vikings: (Bears, @Seahawks, Packers): Aaron Jones Sr. has four fumbles in three weeks, something that needs cleaning up. He also has the best yards per target of his career.
14. Chargers: (Buccaneers, Broncos, @Patriots): We know Gus Edwards is a fan of the low ceiling; At least rookie Kimani Vidal offers some passing skills and the silver lining of the unknown.
15. Panthers: (Cowboys, Cardinals, @Buccaneers): Rookie Jonathon Brooks did more in his second game, but I’m still willing to follow Chuba Hubbard into a burning building.
It’s not a dream, but it’s not a nightmare either.
16. Cowboys: (@Panthers, Buccaneers, @Eagles): Rico Dowdle looked the part on Thanksgiving and this grade is a little skewed by the upcoming Eagles. I will start it proactively in weeks 15 and 16.
17. Jaguars: (Jets, @Raiders, Titans): Unfortunately it’s a platoon and the Jaguars have had poor quarterback play all year. I cannot initiate these backups proactively.
18. Giants: (Ravens, @Falcons, Colts): Brian Daboll might be the coach for the job, and that means Tyrone Tracy Jr. has to play, even with the occasional fumble.
19. Saints: (Commanders, @Packers, Raiders): The Saints aren’t going anywhere and Alvin Kamara already has a worrying odometer for 2024. Will they scale back a bit down the stretch?
20. Broncos: (Colts, @Chargers, @Bengals): Sean Payton has talked about the hot hand all the time, but you had to be a little curious to see what Jaleel McLaughlin showed at the end of Week 13.
21. Commanders: (@Saints, Eagles, Falcons): They will use multiple running backs and quarterback Jayden Daniels appears healthy again, so keep expectations in check.
22. Dolphins: (@Texans, 49ers, @Browns): De’Von Achane’s ground efficiency has decreased significantly, but he is contributing More volume and juice in the aerial game..
23. Bengals: (@Titans, Browns, Broncos): Chase Brown was one of the best picks you could have made in August, and he’s doing it despite a spotty offensive line in Cincinnati.
Lanes could be difficult to find
24. Seahawks: (Packers, Vikings, @Bears): Kenneth Walker III is almost always dented; Don’t let Zach Charbonnet go unclaimed on your waiver wire.
25. Bills: (@Lions, Patriots, Jets): The story not reported here is how the Bills have built an excellent offensive line. The Niners didn’t bother Josh Allen at all in Sunday night’s glorious snow game.
26. Chiefs: (@Browns, Texans, @Steelers): Isiah Pacheco looked healthy in Week 13 and is ready to take Kareem Hunt out of the way.
27. Patriots: (@Cardinals, @Bills, Chargers): Rhamondre Stevenson had been stagnant, but his efficiency in Week 13 was his best performance since Week 5. To be fair, he is working behind the worst offensive line. based on PFF grade.
28. Bears: (@Vikings, Lions, Seahawks): At least new play-caller (and head coach) Thomas Brown seems to know what he’s doing; Former OC Shane Waldron wasn’t a good fit from the start.
29. 49ers: (Rams, @Dolphins, Lions): Isaac Guerendo isn’t getting into the same offense we’ve seen in past seasons; Brock Purdy isn’t healthy and we can’t be sure about LT Trent Williams either. But anyone who starts in a Kyle Shanahan offense demands our attention. I hope your best FAB offer was enough to get Guerendo this week.
30. Texans: (Dolphins, @Chiefs, Ravens): Joe Mixon’s season is nothing short of a miracle considering how poorly Houston’s offensive line has played.
31. Browns: (Chiefs, @Bengals, Dolphins): Nick Chubb has looked slow in his six games. Optimism about long-term injuries is not your friend.
32. Steelers: (@Eagles, @Ravens, Chiefs): Get excited because Arthur Smith wants to run, run and run some more. The Steelers’ range Last in approval rate above expectations.