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It’s a huge milestone, as about a quarter of the way through the fantasy football season has been completed. Many of us use this brand as a confidence check: which attacks are really good, which defenses can be exploited, and which fantasy products are the real deal? It’s the perfect time to reflect a little on the current fantasy landscape.
Many of us don’t seem to have much to reflect on: our template is just a trail of little red O’s. Furthermore, some of us find it difficult to reflect without emotion. We are tied to our draft picks in very personal ways; every touchdown or 40-yard run is a validation, while every drop or dropped bomb pass is a mix of anger and shame. Weekly ups and downs can drive us almost as crazy as constant disappointments.
To move forward effectively, it’s important to put emotions aside, ignore draft capital or ADP, and simply evaluate the players you have on your roster or could get through trades or waivers.
In this edition of Fact or Fluke, I’ll reflect on players selected in the first six rounds who perform against expectations, either overall or specifically in Week 4. We’ll decide who starts every week no matter what and who is a matchup-based play (with a focus on the Week 5 matchup) to give you the most actionable information.
Field Marshals
Through four weeks, the season’s seven highest-scoring quarterbacks are Jayden Daniels, Lamar Jackson, Baker Mayfield, Sam Darnold, Josh Allen, Dak Prescott and Justin Fields. Meanwhile, some star QBs have disappointed due to injuries surrounding them or their own inherent struggles: Patrick Mahomes (QB15), CJ Stroud (QB12) and Trevor Lawrence (QB22) have all failed to live up to their draft day expectations, while Anthony Richardson (QB20) started the season hot, but has since had a string of single-digit fantasy outings. His Week 4 injury, a hip issue, won’t keep him out as long as some initially feared.
Patrick Mahomes He was the highest pick among these quarterbacks who have disappointed their coaches. Losing Isaiah Pacheco, Hollywood Brown and now Rashee Rice hasn’t been good for Mahomes, who continues to find ways to win games anyway. They’ll get a tough Week 5 matchup with New Orleans, whose defense, while allowing the seventh-most passing yards per game, ranks among the top defenses in points (and QB fantasy points) allowed and the best in passing of touchdowns allowed.
There’s a reason a player of Mahomes’ caliber has some leeway in fantasy advice articles, but I wouldn’t hesitate to bench him for Jordan Love or Brock Purdy in Week 5 based on numbers and matchups. If you have Fields or Daniels, you’ll obviously start one of them over Mahomes this weekend.
CJ Stroud He had his best game of the season in the Week 4 win over Jacksonville, with 345 passing yards and two touchdowns. His low numbers in Weeks 2 and 3 were frustrating, but at least he’s performing in good matchups. Buffalo in Week 5 should be fun to watch, but might not produce any fantasy fireworks for Stroud given that Buffalo is an above-average defense in terms of points allowed, passing yards allowed, and fantasy points allowed to QBs.
Trevor Lorenzo has a chance to bounce back in Week 5 as the Jaguars face the second-ranked defense in fantasy points allowed to QBs. Number one is Jacksonville, so we all hope Richardson returns to action. If not, Joe Flacco is a worthy start to what should be a high-scoring game. Lawrence threw two touchdown passes in Week 4, but his yardage was still low (169 yards), which is a fatal blow to fantasy managers given his lack of rushing potential.
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takeaway
It’s much harder for pass-dominant QBs to meet or exceed fantasy value compared to a dual-threat rushing QB. You’ve been warned for years, but looking for pocket passers in drafts, even Mahomes, isn’t the best strategy. Six of the current top 10 quarterbacks in fantasy scoring have over 100 rushing yards. Sam Darnold is the only one in the top five without a rushing touchdown. It’s much easier to take a swipe at a next-gen player (a la Fields or Daniels) than it is to predict a big season from Darnold or Mayfield.
runners
It was a quiet week for Breece Hall (RB16) and another quiet week for Bijan Robinson (RB21) and Rachaad White (RB35). James Cook (RB10) also took a big step back, matching his 39-yard output from Week 3, but failed to score a fantasy touchdown to save the line against the Ravens. On the other hand, just when most people had given up, D’Andre Swift (RB24) had the third-best RB performance of the week with 26 fantasy points.
Breece Lounge and the Jets’ loss to Denver at home was alarming on several fronts, but Hall didn’t seem like a fantasy go-getter at all. Hall hosts the Vikings in London for Week 5, a defense that allows the sixth-fewest fantasy points to running backs. He’s done enough to warrant another start (and honestly, who else do you have?), but another lackluster effort would worry me to the point of benching him if I had a choice.
Bijan Robinson It should give managers a nice surprise in Week 5 when the Falcons face a Bucs team that has been too generous to opposing backs, giving up 10th in most fantasy points and 3rd in touchdowns. ground per game. If he doesn’t produce here, I’ll be concerned, especially since his usage (in terms of snaps, routes run, and third downs) is decreasing, while Tyler Allgeier’s is increasing.
D’André Swift You’d win the week if you had to start it, and frankly, I’m curious how so many coaches avoided it (59%) that I couldn’t in one of my leagues. I give most of the credit to the matchup, as the Rams haven’t stopped anyone on the field this season. The good news for Swift’s managers is that next up is Carolina, an even juicier matchup for opposing backs (second-most fantasy points allowed). I’m starting Swift again in Week 5, based on the matchup and the fact that Recency Bias isn’t always bad. Swift seemed motivated to make an impact and that’s something the Bears desperately need.
James Cook He peaked in Week 2 with his three total touchdowns, but he hasn’t been an amazing fantasy outside of that game. Useful, yes, before Sunday night, but not league-winning. His one goal in a game where the Bills were down deep early was alarming, especially considering Ray Davis was also ineffective (1.7 YPC). Ty Johnson scored the only touchdown, but did not rely on defeat (three carries).
A lot of credit to Baltimore’s defense on this one, so I head into Week 5 with some optimism that Cook bounces back against the Texans, who are an average run defense. Cook is the clear leader here, with no alarming changes in usage rate in this Buffalo backfield. While the post-Week 2 hype may have been overblown, Cook will still be a fantasy starter with some weeks being better than others.
takeaway
It’s time to think about stockpiling some potentially explosive backup running backs if your starters have let you down so far. Consider acquiring Tank Bigsby, Bucky Irving, Braelon Allen or Emanuel Wilson if you can. Each of them would be a Jordan-Mason-style game-changer if something happened to their respective team’s starting running back.
Wide receivers
There has been a little less volatility at the WR position than others this season. The guys we thought would be good are good. Some, like Nico Collins, Malik Nabers, and Jayden Reed, are better than expected, but you won’t get any complaints from me. They should all have been firmly in starting territory from Week 1. Jauan Jennings might be more than a fluke, as he followed up his ridiculous Week 3 with a very solid 3/88 game in the Week 4 win.
Garrett Wilson (WR43) is the biggest disappointment so far (aside from WR or QB injuries). He should hit double-digit goals every game and average well over 8.4 fantasy points per game, but on his (and the Jets’) defense, he’s faced some tough matchups. All of them except New England (where he had his best game and scored) are in the bottom third of the league in DvP to wide receivers.
takeaway
Better days are ahead for a player of this caliber as long as the Jets can keep Rodgers healthy. Although Minnesota has been a great defense so far, they allow the second-most fantasy points behind opposing WRs. Fingers crossed for a Week 5 breakout game.
tight ends
The wasteland of fantasy football is the tight end position. The real solution to this problem is to make it optional as a flexible bonus point, commissioners! The only tight ends who were drafted in 12-team leagues to score touchdowns this year (one each) are Kyle Pitts, Dalton Kincaid, Pat Freiermuth and George Kittle (2). Dallas Goedert leads the position thanks to weeks without AJ Brown and Devonta Smith, while Brock Bowers, Cole Kmet and Isaiah Likely have more fantasy points than Kincaid, Pitts, Travis Kelce, Trey McBride, Sam LaPorta, Mark Andrews and Jake Ferguson.
takeaway
You’ll still start Goedert, Kittle and Ferguson, who along with Kelce, Kincaid and McBride enjoy a high usage rate in both snaps and target percentage. Also notable is Hunter Henry, who enjoys 20% of the targets and 26% of the passing yards for New England. Rice’s latest injury will likely force an uptick in Kelce’s fantasy production, but I’m having a hard time finding an excuse to keep starting Andrews, LaPorta, or Pitts.