Diontae Johnson’s time in Carolina turned out to be nothing more than a stopover on his way to playing for an AFC contender. Just months after being traded from the Steelers to the Panthers, Johnson returns to the AFC North in a swap of fifth- and sixth-round picks with the Baltimore Ravens. This is an extremely low-cost deal for a Ravens team that ranks second in both EPA per play and success rate.
No one can blame a team as good as Baltimore for pushing their chips toward the middle in an attempt to reach the top of the rankings, but it’s not like they were hurting for impact receivers.
What Diontae Johnson brings to the Ravens
Zay Flowers is having a solid second season and they’ve just started unleashing entry routes, minimizing some of the Mickey Mouse screen work that the Ravens overplayed in Weeks 1 and 2. Rashod Bateman is finally healthy and gives them stability . play in the X receiver spot. Ranks fourth in the NFL in both EPA per target and percentage of catches for a first down or touchdown, according to TruMedia. Mark Andrews’ season is stabilizing. He and Isaiah Likely have given this team some big moments at tight end.
The problem for any of those guys is overall volume. None of them are going to consistently push for more than eight targets weekly, both because of the surrounding pieces in the passing game and because of Baltimore’s commitment to its strong running game. Adding Diontae Johnson to the mix creates an even narrower target.
There’s no doubt that Johnson brings a dimension to this team that none of the others do. He is the best pure separator against man and press coverage on the perimeter. The Ravens have seen Cover 1 at the eighth-highest rate this season, according to Fantasy Points Data, so they need one-on-one hitters on the outside. Bateman has gotten that look this season, hence his per-sack efficiency, but Johnson gives them another proven body that can do it at high volume.
There’s almost no chance Johnson will come close to matching his route target rate of 27.1% from Weeks 1-8 with the Panthers in Baltimore. He’s also likely to dig into Flowers’ 27% target stake and increase volatility in Bateman and Andrews’ weekly output.
This trade is a really good move for the Ravens offense and Johnson brings separation skills that any team, particularly a playoff contender, can use. It’s just hard to make the math work when it comes to fantasy.
What do we do with the Panthers’ remaining pass catchers?
As for Carolina, some interesting young pieces remain on offense, but it’s hard to imagine anyone going on a run to fantasy glory. The offense ranks 31st in EPA per play; even the vaunted Andy Dalton era, which helped prop up Johnson, came to an end. At this point, the Panthers are likely close to returning Bryce Young just to see if there is anything to mine of the young passer. Still, rookie receivers Xavier Legette and Jalen Coker are the names to know.
Legette was and is a project receiver, but I love the way the Panthers have utilized him. He hasn’t been asked to win at X-receiver on vertical routes just because he’s big and fast. Instead, they deployed him off the line and had him run the intermediate routes that best suit his current skill level. That’s good training.
Fellow rookie Coker is an undrafted free agent who really impressed me on film. He is an advanced technician with a great sense of zone coverage. Coker has played 70.5% of his snaps from the slot this season and has earned playing time. Maybe Adam Thielen will come back and take the job, but with Carolina clearly looking to the future and unconcerned about the 2024 results, that doesn’t make sense. Especially not with Coker giving them good reps.
Elsewhere on the roster, veteran receiver David Moore, who is familiar with Seattle and Tampa Bay’s Dave Canales, took over Johnson’s vacant X-receiver spot last week and led the team in routes. He’s not a goal-winning guy, so he’ll simply open up concepts for Legette and Coker. Former second-rounder Jonathan Mingo is falling down the depth chart and his skills overlap too much with those of the 2024 rookies.
The Panthers’ passing offense does not appear capable of providing the ground needed to produce good results. However, it’s good to know those names in case something changes drastically.