America’s aging liberals could give Joe Biden an unlikely boost in his re-election fight.
The traditionally conservative voting bloc has been shifting to the left in recent times, and the explanation has been determined to be simple: liberals are aging.
According to the analysis of New York TimesLonger life expectancies among women and college graduates (about six and eight years respectively) may turn the tide after millions of high-ranking Republicans have died.
However, polls also suggest that Biden may be losing significant support among young voters, and a new poll this month found that half of voters under 40 are looking to vote for a third-party candidate amid an increase from RFJ Jr.
Another poll from November 2023 also put Trump ahead of Biden among young voters under 35 by four points, compared to Biden’s 26-point lead with the same age group before the 2020 election.
America’s aging liberals could give Joe Biden an unlikely boost in his re-election fight as he gains support among the voting bloc.
Many of America’s seniors came of age during the Cultural Revolution and “Summer of Love” periods, marking a shift in the traditionally conservative voting bloc.
The Times analysis noted that the “Silent Generation” – those born from 1928 to the end of World War II – were among the most conservative in modern history.
The voting bloc was the only one that shifted further to the right with Barack Obama’s nomination in 2008, and a larger proportion opted for John McCain than for George W. Bush in 2004.
That same group is now at least 15 years older and many of the staunch Republican voters have since died. In total, only 20 percent of the Silent Generation are alive today.
This demographic is also now made up of a considerably more liberal faction, as two traditional Democratic indicators (being a woman or having a college degree) tend to live longer.
Women, on average, live six years longer than men, and college graduates live eight years longer than those without a degree.
Instead, many of those who came of age thanks to the cultural revolution and the days of the ‘Summer of Love’ are now over 65, dramatically changing the voting intentions of a normally devout Republican group.
Now, the ‘Boomer’ generation (those born between 1946 and 1964) will represent more than 70 percent of seniors during the 2024 elections.
When Obama was elected to the White House in 2008, this figure was zero percent.
America’s aging hippies may offer Biden an advantage in 2024, while he is losing ground among young voters.
Biden may see stronger results in 2024 among seniors thanks to the same voters who pushed Obama over the edge in 2008.
In Obama’s re-election against Mitt Romney in 2012, the impact that demographic changes could have on the 2024 elections are even more evident.
In 2012, Obama won the Baby Boomer generation by two points, with 4.3 million Boomers over the age of 65 at the time.
Today, that group stands at 27.6 million, which would comfortably give Obama a five-point cushion in the election.
Among the “greatest generation,” those born between 1901 and 1927, Romney won in 2012 by an easy seven points.
After many have since died, while the liberal-leaning elders had a better chance of surviving, Obama would now win the generation by just under 1 percent, although the entire voting bloc now consists of only 321,000 voters in all the country.
Because Biden won the support of 48 percent of seniors in 2020, analysts believe the latest trends may work in his favor in 2024.
However, these trends have apparently been offset by the rightward shift of many young voters under 50.
In November 2023, a stunning NBC poll found that Trump had taken a lead over Biden among voters under 35, traditionally a group Democrats assumed they would win easily.
Younger voters look to third-party candidates, such as RFK Jr and Cornel West.
In November 2023, an astonishing NBC The poll found that Trump had taken the lead over Biden among voters under 35, traditionally a group Democrats assumed they would win easily.
Before the 2020 election, Biden had a 26-point lead among the same voting bloc, but the NBC poll found Trump had a four-point lead.
The same poll found that Trump was ahead of Biden in every age group except seniors.
And this month, a new poll also found that half of young Americans under 40, or 47 percent, plan to vote for a third-party candidate.
In total, more than a quarter of voters said they felt the same way.
Across all age groups, that would equate to 43 million voters willing to cross the ballot box for a third-party candidate, based on 2020 turnout.