The NBA’s deep dive into the three-point shot has completely transformed the game. Today, the 3 is not just a weapon; It is the basis of almost all crimes. Analytics demands it, coaches preach it, and players adapt to it. But here’s the question: has this evolution really been good for the game? Is basketball more fun to watch or has something been lost in the process?
Last season, the Boston Celtics won the NBA Finals and broke the all-time three-point shooting rate previously set by the Houston Rockets. Now other teams are following suit: 3-point shooting is way up league-wide with 41.7% of shots coming from behind the arc. If this continues, it will be the first time in NBA history that the three-point rate exceeds 40%.
The Timberwolves have undergone one of the most dramatic swings this season with 50.5% of their shots coming from 3, behind only Boston. This comes a year after they ranked 17th in 3-point shooting rate. Clearly, Minnesota is trying to follow league trends as it attempts to jump from a West Finals appearance to a champion.
At the heart of Minnesota’s embrace of the 3-point revolution is Anthony Edwards, who has taken 90 total shots this season, 53 of them from behind the arc. That’s a rate of 58.9%. Higher than James Harden has ever had. Higher than any other player with an average of more than 25 points. Taller than you would expect from a dynamic player capable of cutting, generating contact and finishing at the rim with authority. But this is the style it adopts in all game contexts:
Anthony Edwards has attempted 90 total shots, 53 of them from behind the arc. That’s a 3-point rate of 58.9 percent. Higher than James Harden has ever been. pic.twitter.com/nXfjWfBJ3k
– Kevin O’Connor (@KevinOConnorNBA) October 30, 2024
In the clips above, Edwards scores 3-pointers by running a pick-and-roll, sliding a screen, reusing a screen, and pulling up in transition. He is hunting at all times. And do them too. Edwards has made 37.1 percent of his dribble and jumper 3-pointers and 50 percent of his catch and shoot 3-pointers. Prior to this regular season, Edwards had earned 33.2 percent and 38.7 percent, respectively. We will see if these percentages, the best of his career, are maintained.
But as Edwards takes on this perimeter-focused role, questions arise about what’s left on the table. By relying so much on the long ball, is Ant sacrificing some of his best attributes? Are you missing opportunities to develop your weakest offensive skill: playmaking? And could the mid-range pull-ups and MJ-style athletic thrusts that made him a nostalgic fan favorite be disappearing?
On the latest episode of The Kevin O’Connor Show, I invited Timberwolves insider Dane Moore to talk about Minnesota’s new look. Moore said the increase in 3-point shooting isn’t necessarily an order from Wolves head coach Chris Finch. It’s just the way the team is built. I believe it.
Yes, the Wolves are running more off-ball screens that launch players into threes (or driving them toward the basket). And they feature more movement and movement than before. But the huge increase in 3-point attempts is largely due to Edwards alone.
Karl-Anthony Towns is the self-proclaimed greatest three-point shooter of all time, and he’s gone. But Julius Randle has also always shot his fair share of three-pointers. And guard Donte DiVincenzo is also a high-level 3-point ace.
Rotation players like Mike Conley, Naz Reid and Nickeil Alexander-Walker have made plenty of threes before, so nothing has changed there either.
Only Edwards has fueled Minnesota’s 3-point surge, going from a modest third of his attempts from deep last season to more than half this year. At only 23 years old, he is still developing and still discovering the player he will need to be to win at the highest level. Tuesday’s game against the Mavericks was a perfect test case.
In the first quarter, Edwards looked unstoppable, scoring 24 points and hitting three-pointers from all over the court. But once Dallas tightened up, pressuring him in transition and finishing off those easy looks, everything changed. At half court, the Mavericks began switching almost every screen, often with PJ Washington following behind. Edwards struggled to find his shot against their sagging defense, and the ball pressure led to some sloppy turnovers late in the game.
To go further than the Timberwolves did last season, these are the matchups where Ant needs to take advantage of his entire tool set, especially his drives. And in a long regular season, Edwards has a great opportunity to refine his game and add layers to his game. Right now, his focus is the 3. But at some point, he must also focus on making his teammates better by manipulating defenses as a passer.
However, it’s no surprise that the Timberwolves are embracing Edwards playing this way. His shot looks excellent. This is how teams win nowadays. But it’s not just about strategy: it’s about the broader evolution of basketball itself.
Think about what basketball used to be like. A tapestry of styles, each team with its own identity. The triple used to be the surprise. The coup de grace. Now it’s just another blow. You could watch a game and instantly know: This is Spurs basketball either These are the Seven Seconds or Less Suns either These are the Grit and Grind Grizzlies. Today? You’d be forgiven if you mix up the styles. When everyone is running similar high-volume 3-point strategies, that distinctive identity takes a backseat, and what we’re left with is a league that sometimes feels like a copy-and-paste job.
From a narrative standpoint, the three-point shot was once exciting because of its rarity. But do fans really want a player with Edwards’ build to take a higher rate of 3-point shots than Reggie Miller or Ray Allen did in their careers? The triple, in all its effectiveness, has become routine and, with it, some of the drama has faded.
Don’t get me wrong. Watching Steph Curry make Mike Breen yell “Bang!” with the 3s logo it is exciting. Seeing centers like Brook Lopez adapt by migrating from the post to the 3-point line is commendable. And seeing the Celtics combine elements of what the Warriors and Rockets pioneered to revolutionize the game is extraordinary.
The talent across the league is greater than ever, and with parity in the West and East behind Boston, the level of competition is high entering this season. But Television ratings experienced declines last weekwith many factors influencing it, including the absences of superstars. When that style of three-point shooting becomes the de facto state of the game for almost every player and team, the excitement can begin to wear thin for many fans as well.
For individual players like Edwards, and for the NBA as a whole, the challenge is finding that sweet spot between analysis and artistry. At the end of the day, what most fans want is not just a good frame of shots: they want a good story. And maybe the story is better when it has a little more variety in the way it’s told.