If boy bands and Samsung were all we knew of modern South Korea, then Tuesday’s coup attempt – by its own president – might have come as a big surprise.
But those with longer memories will know that this peaceful, consumer-obsessed democracy has superficial foundations.
The southern half of the Korean Peninsula remained a dictatorship until the late 1980s. Even today, it is rife with tension and weaponry, home to 28,500 American troops and the largest American base outside the United States.
Now, President Yoon Suk Yeol has unleashed not only haunting memories but also dangerous forces of instability with his midnight declaration of martial law.
The immediate crisis was abated when – following massive protests by the South Korean people and politicians – President Yoon reversed his decision.
He did it in a matter of hours. But what has been done cannot be reversed.
The illusion of stability in Seoul has been shattered, and that means Americans should sit up and take notice: The importance of the Korean Peninsula to the United States and its allies cannot be underestimated.
South Korea sits on the front line of Washington’s defensive ring in East Asia, the anchor of a network of American bases that monitor China’s ambitions in the region, not to mention the activities of North Korea, the hermit kingdom. with nuclear weapons on the other side of the border.
The southern half of the Korean Peninsula remained a dictatorship until the late 1980s. Even today, it is rife with tension and weaponry, home to 28,500 American troops and the largest American base outside the United States. Now, President Yoon Suk Yeol has unleashed not only disturbing memories but also dangerous forces of instability with his declaration of martial law.
The immediate crisis was abated when – following massive protests by the South Korean people and politicians – President Yoon reversed his decision.
For decades, a modern conflict on the Korean Peninsula was thought to be so likely that it was a standard scenario in military planning for the outbreak of a Third World War.
Today we face the real risk that continued chaos will trigger an intervention from the North and, ultimately, a response from the United States, guarantor of Seoul’s protection since the cessation of the 1950-53 Korean War.
Pyongyang, which rarely misses an opportunity to provoke the South, could content itself with aggressive military maneuvers and rocket launches, as is currently the case.
But North Korean dictator Kim Jong Un could also try to exploit his neighbor’s divisions with sabotage, cyberattacks and other measures that are not a repeat of the 1950 North Korean invasion.
Any subsequent military response from South Korea would threaten to drag the United States into the conflict.
Although the South has a large military of its own, it relies heavily on the huge US presence and its base in Dongducheon, 40 miles north of Seoul, to ensure its protection.
And that makes American troops a target, too.
For all of North Korea’s saber-rattling with missile launches and nuclear tests in recent years, there had at least been a consensus that Pyongyang would never risk a suicidal confrontation with a rich, stable and democratic South Korea. .
But not anymore.
North Korea, China and Russia are increasingly seeking to assert themselves in the northeast Pacific. This is, make no mistake, a dangerous time.
South Korea was mired in political and economic turmoil even before President Yoon’s disastrous intervention.
Meanwhile, Washington is distracted by the White House transition and the paralysis of an outgoing presidency.
In fact, it is worrying that this week’s coup attempt appears to have taken the United States by surprise.
With several offshore bases at its disposal, including the Japanese island of Okinawa, the Pentagon has considerable resources at its disposal. But it is certainly not prepared for something as dramatic as an all-out attack by North Korea.
It is essential, then, that Washington learns the lessons, remains vigilant, and abandons easy assumptions about stability in the region.
President Yoon’s coup attempt came as a shock to South Koreans themselves, although they were already alienated by accusations of corruption and influence peddling against his wife and key supporters.
The fragility of Korean politics can no longer be overlooked, nor can the corruption of the political class.
Also serious is the destabilizing force of an economy under severe and increasing pressure as the country’s population continues to age – and shrink.
Yoon’s buffoonish takeover and humiliating descent are like something out of a comic opera. But there is nothing cheerful about the dangerous volatility now exposed.
Washington will be watching like a hawk, as will Russia, China and the deeply sinister forces of Kim Jong Un.