Peter Dutton is about to cause a major historic upset in the next federal election, a shock new poll has revealed.
Seat-by-seat analysis of the latest polls shows that Anthony Albanese’s government currently has “almost zero” chance of retaining its majority in the House of Representatives and the Coalition is set to snatch at least nine seats from it in next year’s federal election. .
If Albanese loses government after one term, it will be the first time this has happened since 1932, when James Scullin led the Labor Party to a devastating defeat during the economic misery of the Great Depression.
The shocking prediction comes after Accent Research and RedBridge Group surveyed almost 5,000 voters, who then modeled what the makeup of the federal parliament is likely to look like after the next election.
The survey reported by the Daily Telegraph shows that New South Wales will be a crucial electoral battleground, with five seats likely to change hands and another seven teetering in the same direction.
Those seats stretch from Port Stephens and the NSW Hunter to Sydney, the Blue Mountains and all the way to the south coast.
In Victoria, polls show the Coalition is likely to claim at least one seat from Labor, while another is too close to call and also intends to claim at least one seat in other states and territories.
RedBridge found the Coalition’s strategy of focusing on provincial and suburban seats hardest hit by cost-of-living increases is paying dividends.
A new poll shows Anthony Albanese is in danger of leading a one-term government, which has not happened in Australia since 1932.
These areas showed a five per cent vote swing towards the Labor Party compared to three per cent in the middle suburbs and one per cent in the city centres.
Based on current voting intentions, there is an 82 per cent chance the Coalition will have the most seats in the lower house, winning between 64 and 78 seats, compared to 59 to 71 for the Labor Party, according to the director of Accent Research, Dr. Shaun Ratcliff.
The Greens and Cross MPs were likely to win 13 seats, while another 14 electors were too close to win.
The parties need to win 76 seats in the Lower House to form a government.
“We estimate that there is a 98 percent chance that a minority government will be formed and just under a two percent chance that a coalition majority will be formed,” Dr. Ratfliff told the publication.
“The probability of a Labor majority is now approaching zero.”
He suggested things could change quickly and that governments have historically recovered from worse positions to regain their positions.
However, Dr. Ratfliff believed that the Albanian government would have to demonstrate to voters that the Labor Party had solutions to the problems causing public disillusionment.
Pollsters said Peter Dutton (pictured left with wife Kirilly)’s strategy of targeting suburban and regional seats could deliver him a surprise victory.
RedBridge director Kos Samaras said the “inflationary crisis” was proving to be a “wrecking ball” for Labour’s re-election chances.
“Seats once considered relatively safe are now on a knife’s edge, as voters who historically backed Labor have moved from simply contemplating a change to aligning fully with the Coalition,” Mr Samaras said.
His colleague Tony Barry said a particularly dangerous period for the Labor Party was when Holiday credit card debt hit voters in the new year.
This would probably cause dissatisfaction with the current government.
The seats the Coalition is set to take from Labor are Macarthur, Robertson, Bennelong, Paterson and Gilmore in New South Wales and Aston in Victoria, Lingiari in the NT, Lyons in Tasmania and the new seat of Bullwinkel in WA.
Seats too close to call are Shortland, Werriwa, Macquarie, Dobell, Reid, Hunter and Mackellar in New South Wales, Corangamite, Chisholm, Hawke, Casey, McEwen in Victoria, Sturt in South Australia and Curtin in WA.
Currently, the Coalition will comfortably win 42 seats and is ahead in another 22.
Labor is likely to comfortably win 47 seats, but is only ahead in 12 others.
Federal elections must be held on or before May 17.