Julio Rodriguez’s survival instincts cost the Seattle Mariners dearly on Wednesday.
With Seattle down 2-1 in the bottom of the 10th inning against the New York Yankees, Rodriguez started the inning at second base and soon moved 90 feet away from tying the game on a Cal Raleigh single. At that point, the Mariners had no outs and the middle of the order was up.
First it was Randy Arozarena, who got to a 2-2 count against Yankees reliever Ian Hamilton. And then it all went haywire for the Mariners.
Arozarena missed Hamilton’s swing for strike three, losing his bat in the process. The bat went careening down the third base line, causing Rodriguez to jump and then run off the base. Rodriguez might have been decompressing after a big scare, but unfortunately, the ball was still live.
A quick throw to third and Rodriguez was out.
According to Fangraphs’ win probability, that particular play took the Mariners from a 64.8% chance of winning to an 8.9% chance of winning, a 55.9% chance of winning. Justin Turner struck out in the next at-bat to end the game, a 2-1 Yankees victory.
The win made the Yankees just the second MLB team to clinch a playoff spot, joining the Milwaukee Brewers, who also clinched their spot on Wednesday. It also followed the worst season of Rodriguez’s career.
All of that would be bad for any team, but it’s particularly brutal for the Mariners given that this was their second straight game with a baserunning catastrophe. Victor Robles made perhaps the most baffling error on the bases all season on Wednesday. When he tried to steal home with a 3-0 count, bases loaded and two outs in the first inning.
He was caught, ending a threat in which the Mariners were one ball away from an easy run. To make matters worse, Robles hurt his hand on the play and was unable to play in the lineup Wednesday.
Both errors went far beyond the typical TOOTBLAN, but that brand of baseball has been the Mariners’ trademark this 77-75 season, in which they are fighting for a playoff spot despite having one of the best rotations in baseball and a trade deadline buyout.