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The architects of the 12-team College Football Playoff format had many goals in mind when they spent several months in 2020 and 2021 creating it.
They wanted to increase the value of a conference championship (five league title winners receive automatic bids and the top four are eligible for a first-round bye). They wanted to hold playoff games on campus (seeds 5-8 would host first-round games). And, perhaps most importantly, they wanted to increase the relevance of more late-season games by involving more teams (they added eight teams to the field).
Goals accomplished!
The chaos of Saturday’s playoffs? It wouldn’t have mattered much in a four-team playoff world. More than half a dozen games, irrelevant under the old system, were important to the playoff chase.
Take, for example, the madness in the SEC. The home underdogs essentially knocked two teams out of playoff contention with big upsets: Florida over Ole Miss and Oklahoma over Alabama. And a third upset (Auburn over Texas A&M in four overtimes) could send a three-loss team to the SEC championship game if the Aggies beat Texas next week.
How about all those chaotic games in the Big 12? Kansas’ win over Colorado has huge ramifications on the automatic bid process in the quest for the Big 12 crown, and Arizona State’s win over BYU did the same. In fact, four teams (Colorado, ASU, Iowa State and BYU) are tied atop the Big 12 standings.
Many or all of those games don’t matter in a four-team playoff field. But 12 teams? They are incredibly impressive.
The same goes for Penn State-Minnesota, where the Nittany Lions, fake punt and all, survived cold Minneapolis by one point. Boise State’s game against Wyoming presented significant ramifications for an expanded playoff, as the Broncos survived to keep their path to earning the Group of Five bid alive. The same goes for Notre Dame-Army, a matchup that, just last year, would have been irrelevant when choosing the four teams.
The losses to Ole Miss and Alabama, both within the CFP committee’s playoff projection last week, open the door for many others. The big winners of Saturday’s chaotic day?
(1) The ACC, whose second-place team in the title game (Miami or SMU?) and third-place team (Clemson?) are back in contention for one of the seven at-large bids.
(2) Georgia, which clinched a bid to the SEC Championship Game with losses to the Tide and A&M (they will play the winner of Texas vs. Texas A&M).
(3) Notre Dame, which, in all likelihood, will clinch not only a playoff spot but a first-round home game in South Bend if the Irish win next week against USC.
(4) Indiana and Tennessee, two bubble teams whose path to the CFP opened with all the surprises.
Another big winner: the Top 10, which underwent a small change. Let’s get to it!
1. Oregon Ducks
This week: goodbye
Next week: against Washington
Few teams punch their ticket to a conference championship game on a Tuesday afternoon while not playing. But that’s exactly what happened earlier this week with Oregon when the Big Ten, three days after the Ducks beat Wisconsin to move to 11-0, realized Dan Lanning’s team won every tiebreaker possible even if they lost to Washington. To be clear, they don’t want to lose to the rival Huskies!
2. Ohio State Buckeyes
This week: beat Indiana 38-15
Next week: against Michigan
The Buckeyes are in position with a win over Michigan to advance to the Big Ten championship game for a rematch with the Ducks. The game in Indianapolis is not just about a championship. The winner will almost certainly earn the No. 1 seed in the playoffs and receive a first-round bye. And the loser? He is likely to finish fifth or sixth and will have to play in the first round.
3. Georgia Bulldogs
This week: beat UMass 59-21
Next week: against Georgia Tech
This was strange. The Minutemen rushed for over 225 yards against Kirby Smart’s defense, a shocking result and one that may catch the attention of some CFP committee members, as the Bulldogs were one of the last at-large teams in the field, according to the rankings from last week. . However, Georgia still has two of the best wins of the season: at Texas and against Tennessee, two programs that, for now, are in the playoff field.
4. Penn State Nittany Lions
This week: beat Minnesota 26-25
Next week: against Maryland
With his team on the ropes and a playoff spot potentially on the line, James Franklin pulled a fake punt out of his bag of tricks in the final minutes to secure the victory over the Gophers. The Nittany Lions got another magical performance from their star tight end, Tyler Warren (eight catches for 102 yards), and appear poised to control their destiny. Beat the slumping Terps next week and punch your ticket not only to the playoffs but potentially a first-round game in Happy Valley.
5. Texas Longhorns
This week: beat Kentucky 31-14
Next week: at Texas A&M
In Year 1 of the SEC, Steve Sarkisian has the Longhorns in position to advance to the conference title game with a win in Aggieland. However, there is concern. Quarterback Quinn Ewers, who battled injuries for much of the season, hurt his ankle in the win over the Wildcats, but finished the game. His health is in danger before the confrontation in College Station.
6. Notre Dame fighting the Irish
This week: beat Army 49-14
Next week: at USC
The only thing standing between the Irish and a playoff berth is their old rival, the USC Trojans. Notre Dame has won nine straight since that surprising loss to Northern Illinois, and this one has never been closer. Notre Dame took a 14-0 lead in the opening minutes and cruised to a victory at Yankee Stadium.
7. SMU Mustangs
This week: beat Virginia 33-7
Next week: against Cal
Has any coach done a better job this season than Rhett Lashlee? In their first year in the ACC and after a mid-season starting QB change, the Mustangs punched their ticket to the league championship game to play either Miami or Clemson. The path to an unlikely playoff berth, and potentially a first-round bye, lies before QB Kevin Jennings and his team.
8. Miami Hurricanes
This week: beat Wake Forest 42-14
Next week: in Syracuse
Is there any team more explosive than Miami? When the Hurricanes and QB Cam Ward get hot, they can score in bunches. On Saturday, in a close game against the Demon Deacons, Mario Cristobal’s group scored 25 unanswered beginning late in the second quarter. The Canes can reach Charlotte for the ACC title game with a win next week.
9. Indiana Hoosiers
This week: lost to Ohio State 38-15
Next week: against Purdue
The Hoosiers probably didn’t help themselves Saturday at the Horseshoe (151 yards of offense), but they got help from elsewhere. They remain in our Top 10, just barely, after the Rebels lost in Gainesville. But our rankings don’t really matter. How far will Curt Cignetti’s team fall in the CFP committee rankings? They’ll probably be in that top 12 bubble with teams like Tennessee, SMU and Boise State.
10. Tennessee Volunteers
This week: beat UTEP 56-0
Next week: at Vanderbilt
Welcome back to the Top 10, Vols, the beneficiaries of the defeat of their SEC brothers (Ole Miss). Tennessee’s resume took a small hit with Alabama’s loss at Oklahoma, but Josh Heupel’s team has one of the toughest schedules in the country, just ahead of South Carolina, Boise State and Clemson in our rankings.
abandoned: Old miss (7)