Of the 1.4 million adults who live in Manhattan, it will be almost impossible to find one who does not already have an opinion about Donald Trump.
But twelve of them will be chosen to ultimately decide his fate as the first former president to appear in a criminal trial that begins Monday.
They will be chosen from hundreds of eligible New York residents to appear in the landmark case in which Trump is accused of hiding a $130,000 payment to porn star Stormy Daniels to keep her quiet about their alleged affair in 2006.
If his group of peers finds him guilty, he could be sentenced to up to four years in prison for a saga that began 18 years ago and that has had wall-to-wall newspaper coverage not only in the Big Apple but around the world. .
Will it be impossible to find a dozen people who don’t already have a prejudicial view of the presumptive Republican presidential nominee? Experts who specialize in jury selection tell DailyMail.com it could be.
Jury selection in Donald Trump’s secret trial in Manhattan begins Monday. The process to choose a 12-person panel to decide the former president’s fate could be laborious
Selecting an impartial, nonpartisan panel in a highly publicized scandal — and in a city made up mostly of Democrats — is a monumental task for the court, and could take anywhere from five days to two weeks.
The jury will be made up of people who live in Manhattan, speak English, are American citizens and have not been convicted of any serious crimes.
Both sides want New Yorkers who can help and hear their case, but who are not biased and may have already jumped to conclusions.
During the arduous process that begins Monday morning, the judge will ask each prospective member 42 questions out loud.
Topics range from their career and family life to what news networks they watch and whether they have been members of a political organization.
There will then be follow-up questions and attorneys for each side will have a limited opportunity to challenge the jury.
Lawyers will have the opportunity to dismiss jurors and pepper them with questions before they are allowed to participate in the trial that could last up to six weeks.
Stormy Daniels with Donald Trump in 2006. She alleges they had an affair after meeting at a golf tournament.
“I think the biggest challenge for judges and lawyers will be determining who is deceiving and who is not,” Margaret Bull Kovera, a professor of psychology at John Jay College of Criminal Justice, told DailyMail.com.
“This is the kind of case where people can lie to get on or off the jury.”
He said there is a possibility that a jury could try to be selected driven solely by the possibility of convicting or acquitting Trump, without even hearing the evidence.
They could also see it as an opportunity to sell their story, despite the threat of public anger that disagrees with the verdict.
“The potential for bias is substantial,” Cornell University law professor Valerie Hans told DailyMail.com.
‘Jurors may have already formed opinions about the case based on what they have heard from their favorite media; Therefore, it will be important to find out what those opinions are and whether or not they prevent people from being fair and impartial.’
The potential jurors Trump’s legal team and Manhattan prosecutors will seek will be polar opposites.
Hans said Trump’s team will look for conservatives who have supported him in the past and believe the prosecution is politically motivated.
Since he was first charged, the 77-year-old billionaire who made his name in Manhattan as a real estate mogul has maintained that he is the victim of a witch hunt.
Meanwhile, prosecutors will want jurors who are open-minded, can follow the case and identify as Democrats.
Renato Stabile, a lawyer who advises juries, told DailyMail.com that both sides are likely to be stuck with jurors they don’t want, but the goal is to avoid “extremes.”
‘The judge has already said he will excuse anyone who says he can’t be fair. “Essentially opening the door to anyone who wants to leave,” he stated.
‘The parties have to ask themselves about the people who stay and why they stay.
“Many potential jurors will be dismissed because of what they have already heard and the feelings they already have about Donald Trump.”
He believes Trump’s team will look for people who are not interested in politics.
His ideal candidates will be wealthier jurors, who can recognize that he would be good with his finances.
“Young, wealthy, single, professional men, possibly in finance with an active social life, who can see the underlying facts as extortion and who have personal experience or know someone who does,” would be good prospects for the defense, he said . .
‘Also, people who have been mistreated by law enforcement or the criminal justice system and have a negative and skeptical view of prosecutors and the courts.
‘Alternatively, a mix of people who may not be able to agree.
“The goal will likely be a hung jury, as a full acquittal will be difficult in Manhattan.”
The jury will be made up of people who live in Manhattan, speak English, are American citizens and have not been convicted of any serious crimes. Both sides want New Yorkers who can help and hear their case, but who are not biased and may have already jumped to conclusions.
The jury selection process will be “difficult” given the extensive press coverage, Kovera said.
He also believes that finding a completely impartial jury will be a difficult task due to the “full saturation” of potential members.
‘There’s nowhere they can go to avoid it. Then what do you do?
‘Well, the best thing to do is look for a place that has a large number of people they can turn to.
‘The chances of finding 12 people who can be fair and impartial are greater in Manhattan.
“If they wanted to move the case to another county in New York, they would be going into smaller communities that will have fewer people in their jury pool.”
Trump has attempted to change headquarters to Staten Island, the only New York district that voted overwhelmingly for him in 2020.
It was one of many legal measures rejected by the judge in preparing the case.
He believes he can’t get a fair trial because more than 70 percent of Manhattan residents register as Democrats.
“There’s no perfect place, but it’s more of a question of ‘when’ than ‘where,'” Stable said.
But he doesn’t think Trump’s claim that he won’t be able to get a fair trial carries much weight.
‘The fairest thing could be to hold the trial after the November 2024 elections.
‘If Trump loses the election, the outcome of this trial will have smaller implications and the danger to activist jurors will be less.
The potential jurors Trump’s legal team and Manhattan prosecutors will seek will be polar opposites.
“If he wins, that raises different issues, but we’ll end up there anyway with the other criminal cases, so postponing the trial until after the election would be a reasonable compromise.”
Now that the trial location is set in stone, attorneys will have to confront concerns about jury impartiality in court.
Lawyers will have to sift through hundreds of candidates and try to spot anyone who is lying as they move through the lengthy selection process.
“Lie detection is a very difficult task according to research,” Kovera added.
‘People think they can do it pretty well. Therefore, they are actually based on signals that are not indicators of deception.’
That means a potential juror’s tone of voice, inconsistencies in their story or even their unease could be critical.
Kovera said that if he had advised legal teams, he would have conducted a community survey to assess which arguments would work on different types of people.
“The problem with prejudice is that it is very difficult to overcome,” Stabile said.
‘People tend to reverse engineer their decision making to match their worldview.
“They will see the evidence through the lens of their biases, and in this case they will be very strong.”