Mark Dubowitz is executive director of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies. In 2019, Iran sanctioned him for his defense.
Memo to the White House: It’s time to withdraw President Biden’s ‘No Doctrine.’ It does not work.
Weeks after an April 1 Israeli airstrike in Syria killed a top Iranian terrorist general, Biden had a word for Tehran.
“No,” he warned, as US intelligence raised the alarm about a retaliatory attack by the Islamic Republic.
But Iran did it: it launched a 330 missile and a barrage of armed drones.
The attack on Israel – the first from Iranian territory – was defeated by the combined effort of Israeli air defenses and assistance from the United States, the United Kingdom, France and their Arab allies.
Memo to the White House: It’s time to withdraw President Biden’s ‘no doctrine’. It does not work.
However, it was Israel’s turn to fight back. However, Biden issued more irresponsible advice.
“Win,” he reportedly urged Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, arguing that Tehran’s failed attack was punishment enough for the regime.
Bibi thought otherwise. Overnight on Thursday, Israel launched successful retaliatory strikes against a sensitive military site in central Iran.
The fact that both enemies and allies ignore the “do not” doctrine raises serious concerns about the power and credibility of the United States.
But today, Biden should thank Israel for teaching him to play hardball in the Middle East.
Because the mullahs have backed down. The Iranians are expressing their desire to stop this escalation of the conflict… for now.
The Israeli strikes hit near the city of Isfahan, more than 200 miles south of Tehran.
It is from there that Iran launched part of its swarm of armed drones last week, making Isfahan a legitimate retaliation target.
The Israeli strikes hit near the city of Isfahan, more than 200 miles south of Tehran.
It was in Isfahan that Iran launched some of its swarm of armed drones last week, making Isfahan a legitimate target of retaliation. (Above) Military personnel stand guard at a nuclear facility in Isfahan, Iran
The Iranian S-300 air defense system, built in Russia and considered one of the most effective in the world, defends the area. But it was rendered useless after Israel eliminated at least one of its radars.
On Friday, Iran’s foreign minister attempted to downplay the attack.
“What happened last night was not a strike,” said Hossein Amirbdollahian in a poor attempt to save face. “They were more like toys that our children play with, not drones.”
“We are not going to have new reactions,” he concluded.
Translation – Tehran cried uncle.
Isfahan is also the location of Iran’s largest nuclear complex: the Isfahan Nuclear Technology Center.
In Isfahan, Tehran converts yellowcake, a powder obtained by processing uranium ore, into uranium hexafluoride, an essential precursor to enriched uranium, the material needed to build a nuclear weapon.
The Isfahan nuclear center also stores some of Tehran’s highly enriched uranium, which is now large enough to provide enough weapons-grade material for 12 bombs.
While the strike was an apparent success, the Jewish state did not unleash anything approaching its full capacity. In fact, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu is now being accused of weakness by hardline ministers in his cabinet.
But still, the attack sent a clear message to Tehran: we can penetrate its air defenses at will.
Iran appears to have been taken by surprise by this attack, indicating that Israel may have deployed a weapons capability that its enemies – perhaps even the United States – were unaware it possessed.
100 kilometers north of Isfahan is Natanz, the second largest enrichment facility in the Islamic Republic.
Iran appears to have been taken by surprise by this attack, indicating that Israel may have deployed a weapons capability that its enemies – perhaps even the United States – were unaware it possessed. (Above) Anti-ship fire seen over Isfahan on April 18, 2024
The Isfahan nuclear center stores some of Tehran’s highly enriched uranium. (Above) Technicians from the International Atomic Energy Agency inspect the site of the Isfahan uranium conversion plant in February 2007
(Aboce) Iran’s uranium conversion facility, outside the city of Isfahan.
Earlier this week, in an article for DailyMail.com, I advised that Israel attack there.
In Natanz, the regime is building a new, heavily fortified enrichment plant 100 meters under a mountain, and it is here that future nuclear weapons will be built.
When the Natanz underground facilities are completed, in about two or three years, they could be immune to Israeli and even American bombs.
But for now, Natanz’s only defense is the same compromised Russian-made missile system that defends Isfahan.
A devastating Israeli attack on Natanz would severely cripple Iran’s nuclear weapons ambitions, and the world now knows how vulnerable it is.
All of Tehran’s decisions will be made in the context of this new knowledge.
A devastating Israeli attack on Natanz would severely cripple Iran’s nuclear weapons ambitions, and the world now knows how vulnerable it is.
Khamenei not only has to worry about his country’s key infrastructure (pipelines, oil refineries and military assets), but also his crown jewels: the leaders of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard and Natanz.
Israel has done what the Biden Administration could not: subdue the mullahs.
It is now up to the White House to move further toward maintaining lasting peace.
Biden must stop granting Tehran access to billions of dollars in frozen oil assets and once again crack down on Iranian oil sales, which have recovered from a low of 200,000 barrels per day during Donald Trump’s administration. to 1.7 million barrels per day under this president.
These funds only finance Iranian terrorism and regional instability.
Most importantly, Biden must recognize that his tough-guy threats will do nothing to change the calculations in Tehran.
Like Israel, the United States must demonstrate its resolve through force if necessary.
In the coming weeks, as Khamenei considers his options and Israel once again demolishes Hamas battalions in Gaza, the Biden administration must send a clear signal: the United States is not a better friend to Israel and – it could be – a worse enemy to Iran. .