A man known as the “world’s most accurate economist” is taking his talents to the US elections, predicting whether Kamala Harris or Donald Trump will win and how that will affect markets.
Christophe Barraud of Market Securities has been ranked by Bloomberg as the economist who best predicts what will happen to the US economy each year, in 11 of the last 12.
Now, he’s taking a look at the 2024 election, focusing on what will happen to markets if Harris or Trump are elected, as polls show Trump has an advantage over Harris on the economy.
Barraud is optimistic about a growing economy regardless of who wins, because markets are currently indecisive due to the election, as well as climate disasters and labor strikes.
However, Barraud says the most likely outcome in 2024 is a red wave: Donald Trump taking back the White House and Republicans taking back the Senate, with a toss-up for the House of Representatives.
Christophe Barraud, a man known as the “world’s most accurate economist,” is taking his talents to the US elections and predicting whether Kamala Harris or Donald Trump will win and how that will affect the markets.
It uses a model that combines economic, financial and satellite data, as well as backtesting and external models, Barraud said. Insider business information.
Barraud also takes into account what the betting markets have said about elections, valuing those that get the most action. Betting markets have been bullish on Trump for most of the year.
What would happen to the economy if Trump won and Republicans took power in Congress?
Barraud is forecast to increase GDP by 2.1% to 2.3% in 2025 after Trump implements tax cuts.
However, he is concerned about America’s widening deficit and where it will go if Trump enacts tax cuts.
The economist’s other forecasts include Trump’s victory, but a divided Congress, which would limit the president’s power and force him to focus most of his time on foreign policy.
The tariffs – a big part of Trump’s economic plan – would be enacted sooner than many think, according to Barraud, hurting global growth and potentially damaging the economy in the long term.
His third most likely scenario, a Harris victory and a divided Congress, would leave the economy in a status quo, with little change expected.
Barraud says the most likely outcome in 2024 is a red wave: Donald Trump takes back the White House and Republicans take back the Senate, with a toss-up for the House of Representatives.
His third most likely scenario, a Harris victory and a divided Congress, would leave the economy in a status quo, with little change expected.
A series of new polls just two weeks before Election Day show that Donald Trump has an advantage on the economy, an issue that historically drives presidential races.
At a time when voters are still focused on inflation, even as it has cooled to 2.4 percent, Americans are concluding that Trump will make them richer and say, by a narrow margin, that they trust him more in economics subject.
Trump has a narrow 48 to 46 percent in a new CNBC All-America Economic Survey.
But among those who make inflation and the economy a priority, Trump’s lead increases to 42 to 24.
Trump also holds a narrow 48-47 lead in key states that will determine the outcome of the election.
Both candidates are touring the country in those states to spread their economic messages.
Trump had a 35-point lead among those most concerned about the economy, an issue he constantly emphasizes, and a 19-point lead among those most concerned about crime and safety (an issue he often intertwines with immigration when talking about horrendous murders committed by immigrants).
In the seven battleground states, Trump leads 48% to 47%, within the 4% margin of error for that portion of the poll.
A series of new polls just two weeks before Election Day show that Donald Trump has an advantage on the economy, an issue that historically drives presidential races.
Both candidates travel the country in those states to spread their economic messages.
The poll also showed that Trump has a 35-point lead among voters most concerned about immigration and a 19-point lead on crime and safety.
Other survey in the Financial Times conducted by the University of Michigan’s Ross School of Business, Trump had a narrow lead in the economy.
He led Harris 44 percent to 43 percent, essentially a tie. When asked who would improve their financial situation, respondents chose Trump by 45 to 37 percent.
