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World Health Organization reveals 30 pathogens most likely to trigger the next pandemic

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The above shows a selection of pathogens included in the list that the researchers considered to have a probability

The World Health Organization has revealed its list of more than 30 pathogens that are most likely to cause the next pandemic.

Among the most dangerous viruses and bacteria is the H5N1 bird flu, which is spreading in the United States and which scientists fear could easily mutate and be transmitted between humans.

There are also fears about mosquito-borne dengue fever, sometimes called the “bone-breaking disease,” which is also spreading in the United States at record levels.

And monkeypox, which caused a global epidemic in 2022, was also on the list, amid an outbreak of a deadlier and more infectious strain in Africa.

The above shows a selection of pathogens included in the list that researchers considered to have a “high” likelihood of causing the next major pandemic or outbreak.

More than half of the entries were new compared to the 2017 list, when it was first published.

It also included hantavirus, a virus that spreads among rodents, West Nile virus transmitted by mosquitoes, influenza and Covid.

Scientists also added smallpox, although it is now eradicated, out of fear that it could be accidentally released in a laboratory accident and then spread rapidly because few people now have immunity to the virus.

And Lassa fever, transmitted by rodents, can cause bleeding from the gums, eyes and nose and seizures in patients.

The list was compiled by 200 scientists from more than 50 countries after reviewing a shortlist of 1,600 bacteria and viruses.

Strains flagged as having “pandemic potential” were highly transmissible and virulent (or capable of causing severe disease in humans).

The most dangerous diseases were also those for which there were no vaccines or treatments available to patients.

Previously, the 2017 and 2018 lists only included about a dozen pathogens.

The list was updated due to climate change, deforestation and the growth of international travel, which can make other diseases more likely to cause a new outbreak (stock)

The list was updated due to climate change, deforestation and the growth of international travel, which can make other diseases more likely to cause a new outbreak (stock)

REVEALED: The diseases that could cause the next pandemic
Disease Latin name Risk level
Lassa fever
Argentine Hemorrhagic Fever
Anger
Plague
Shigellosis
Salmonella
Pneumonia
MERS; Middle East respiratory virus
SARS; Severe acute respiratory syndrome
Ebola
Marburg virus
Zika virus
Dengue
Yellow fever
Tick-borne encephalitis
West Nile Virus
Hantavirus
Crimean-Congo haemorrhagic fever
Avian flu (H1 to H10)
Swine flu (H1 to H3)
Nipah virus
SFTS fever
Rift Valley Fever
Smallpox
Smallpox virus
Monkeypox
Chikungunya virus
Venezuelan equine encephalitis
Pathogen X
Adenovirus
Adenovirus 14
Hand, foot and mouth
Lentivirus
Borna disease virus
Hepatitis C
Hepatitis E
HerpesHPVParvovirus
Mammarenavirus lassaense
Mammarenavirus juniense
Vibrio Cholerae Serotype 1
Yersinia pestis
Shigella dysenteriae
Salmonella enterica
Klebsiella pneumoniae
Subgenus Merbecovirus
Subgenus Sarbecovirus
Zairian orthoebolavirus
Sudanese orthoebolavirus
Orthoebolavirus zikaense
Dengue orthoflaviviridae
Orthoflaviviridae flavi
Orthoflaviviridae encephalitis
Orthoflaviviridae nilense
Unnamed Orthohantavirus
Orthonairovirus haemorrhagiae
Influenza alpha virus
Influenza alpha virus
Henipavirus nipahense
Bandavirus dabienense
Rift phlebovirus
Variola orthovirus
Orthovirus vaccine
Orthovirus monkeypox
Chikungunya alphavirus
Venezuelan alphavirus
Pathogen X
Recombinant mastadenovirus
Mastadenovirus blackbeardi serotype 14
Coxsackiepol enterovirus
Lentivirus humimdef1
Bornean orthobornavirus
Orthohepadnavirus hominoidei C
Paslahepevirus balayani 3
HerpesviridaePapillomaviridaeCarnivorous protoparvovirus
HIGH
HIGH
HIGH
HIGH
HIGH
HIGH
HIGH
HIGH
HIGH
HIGH
HIGH
HIGH
HIGH
HIGH
HIGH
HIGH
HIGH
HIGH
HIGH
HIGH
HIGH
HIGH
HIGH
HIGH
HIGH
HIGH
HIGH
HIGH
HIGH
medium low
medium low
half
half
low
low
low
lowlowlow

But now researchers have expanded the list amid more opportunities for diseases to spread from animals to humans and between areas of the world.

Urbanization and deforestation have boosted contact between wildlife and humans, scientists said, while more international travel creates new opportunities for a disease to reach new areas of the world.

There are also concerns that climate change could fuel an outbreak by causing diseases to spread to new areas.

Dr. Ana Maria Henao Restrepo, who led the report, said Nature“The prioritization process helps identify critical knowledge gaps that need to be urgently addressed.”

Other diseases also included in the report were five bacteria, including cholera, which can cause stomach upset, and Yersinia pestis, the bacterium responsible for plague.

Among those remaining on the list was also the bat-borne Nipah virus, which can cause severe inflammation of the brain.

Many of the diseases on the list have only been diagnosed in sporadic cases so far.

But researchers warned that if they acquired mutations that allowed them to spread better between people, they could trigger an outbreak.

Most diseases are transmitted by ticks, bats, mosquitoes, rodents or people, and are often spread through respiratory droplets.

To become a pandemic, a virus or bacteria must spread among humans, be detected worldwide and cause disease.

World Health Organization

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