Brazil will beat France in the World Cup final, according to a supercomputer.
The algorithm pits Argentina and Spain in a third-place play-off, with England most likely crashing out of the tournament in the quarterfinals – along with Germany, The Netherlands and Belgium.
Stats Perform’s prediction model estimates the probability of each match outcome using betting market odds and internal team rankings, historical and recent team performance, and opponent strength – before running 40,000 simulations to predict each team’s chances of reaching each stage.
Group stage results
The supercomputer predicts England will lead Group B (60 per cent), but has a one in four chance of finishing in second place, while a group stage departure – like Brazil’s eight years ago – is 11 per cent.
The United States side Wales for second in Group B, with 29 percent and 26.8 percent respectively to secure that position.
The odds also suggest that a first-place finish for Rob Page’s team at 14 percent isn’t out of the realm of possibility, which equates to a one-in-seven chance — but there’s also a 29 percent chance of bottoming out. reach.
Brazil are most likely to top all groups at 68 percent in Group G, followed by South American rivals Argentina at 65 percent in Group C – with Gareth Southgate’s side-joint-third favorites to outdo their pack at 60 percent, along with France.
Progress to Knockout Stage
- Group A: The Netherlands and Senegal
- Group B: England and United States
- Group C: Argentina and Mexico
- Group D: France and Denmark
- Group E: Spain and Germany
- Group F: Belgium and Croatia
- Group G: Brazil and Switzerland
- Group H: Portugal and Uruguay
The computer’s odds for knockout progress don’t necessarily match the teams’ route to the final, meaning there could be a clash when two sides predicted to reach the final stages meet each other sooner. meet in the knockouts.
However, the Samba stars recently jumped Belgium on the FIFA World Rankings and are favorites to lift the trophy at Lusail Stadium on December 18 – with France as the most likely finalist losers.
England have an 84 percent chance of making it to the round of 16, with the odds for the quarter-finals (55 percent), semi-finals (31 percent), final (17 percent) and winner (nine percent). So Southgate has a one in ten chance of ending the country’s 56-year run without a trophy in the men’s game.
Wales’ progress to the knockouts is measured at 41 per cent, with a quarter-final clocking in at 17 per cent – matching progress in their only previous World Cup show in 1958. The odds of booking a place in the semi-final (5.8 percent), final (1.9 percent) and the eventual winners (0.6 percent).