With Control of the Senate in Play, These Are the Races to Watch

With the Senate tied at 50-50 for each party, Republican control is just one seat away. But this election season was full of surprises.

For much of the campaign season, Democrats seemed poised to win a Republican seat in Pennsylvania, meaning Republicans would have to flip two Democratic seats to secure a majority. But recent fumbles by Republican candidates in New Hampshire, Georgia and Arizona have made finding those two winable races more difficult.

These are the places where every party is vulnerable.

Cook Politics Report Race Ratings
for current senate seats

Republicans
Currently holds 50 seats, 51 needed for majority

democrats
Currently holds majority with 50 seats (Vice President casts casting vote)

Republicans not in favor re-election

Solid R

probably R

Skinny R

Toss up

Democrats not for re-election

solid D

Lean D

Toss up

FATHER

WI

FL

NC

OH

UT

AK

ALREADY

AR

IA

ID card

IN

KS

KY

LA

MA

ND

Okay

Okay

SC

SD

AK

ALREADY

AR

FL

IA

ID card

IN

KS

KY

LA

ME

MA

MRS

MRS

MT

NC

ND

NE

NE

SC

SD

TN

TN

TX

TX

UT

Related Post

WV

WY

WY

GA

NV

AZ

CO

NH

CA

CT

HI

IL

MD

New York

OR

VT

WA

AZ

CA

CO

CT

THE

THE

GA

HI

IL

MA

MA

MD

ME

MI

MI

MN

MN

MT

NH

NJ

NJ

NM

NM

NV

New York

OH

OR

FATHER

RI

RI

VA

VA

VT

WA

WI

WV

Republicans not in favor re-election

Democrats not for re-election

Earlier this year, Senator Raphael Warnock, a Democrat in Georgia, was considered one of the most vulnerable Democrats in the Senate when he took on Herschel Walker, a scandal-prone Republican backed by former President Donald J. Trump. Then came the charge that Mr. Walker, a staunch abortionist, paid for an ex-girlfriend’s abortion, and the race turned on its head.

Cook Political Report still rates the contest as a bull’s eye, but the new allegations have Mr. Warnock ahead and Mr. Walker put on the defensive.

A Democratic seat in Arizona may have once been vulnerable. But the continued popularity of incumbent Mark Kelly and the faltering campaign of his challenger, Blake Masters, could put it out of reach for Republicans.

Inside the race Nevada arguably the Republicans’ best shot at taking a Democrat seat. Catherine Cortez Masto, the incumbent, is not well established in a state known for its temporary population and fickle voters, especially in midterm elections.

But her Republican challenger, Adam Laxalt, the former state attorney general, lost his chance to run for governor in 2018 and doesn’t have a clear lead yet.

Democrats’ best shot at winning a Republican seat is here Pennsylvania, where Senator Patrick J. Toomey is retiring. The famous physician Dr. Mehmet Oz won the Republican nomination, helped by Mr Trump’s approval, but he didn’t have the love of the Republican base.

His opponent, Lieutenant Governor John Fetterman, suffered a life-threatening stroke that left Dr. Oz gave an opening. The obvious fallout from the stroke and the Republican’s attacks on Mr. Fetterman as a criminally coddled liberal have narrowed the race.

Democrats had high hopes for removing the Republican senator from Wisconsin, Ron Johnson, six years ago and were stunned by his relatively easy re-election. Since then, Mr. Johnson has become the Senate’s biggest peddler of conspiracy theories and misinformation about Covid-19, but he is holding on tight to Wisconsin Lieutenant Governor Mandela Barnes, who comes from the liberal wing of the Democrats and is vulnerable. has been found for attacks, especially on crime.

A sleeper race for the Senate is also the sleepiest. Representative Ted Budd, a North Carolina Republican, backed by Mr. Trump, has tried to keep low and take the national flow to the seat of Richard M. Burr, a Republican retiring.

Cheri Beasley, former chief justice of the North Carolina Supreme Court, is a judge above the political battle. North Carolina is a state that has broken the hearts of Democrats, and it may well be. But Mr Budd and Mrs Beasley consistently vote for a draw.

Despite the challenges ahead, Republicans still have plenty of ways to gain control of the Senate. They could beat Senator Catherine Cortez Masto in Nevada and push Senator Raphael Warnock to a second round in Georgia. They could overwhelm the Georgia race with money to defeat Mr. Warnock, Herschel Walker, to save. They could also take a come-from-behind win in Pennsylvania.

But the Democrats also have options. If they can seal a win in Pennsylvania and beat Senator Ron Johnson in Wisconsin, it’s hard to see a way for Republicans to take three Democratic seats to compensate.

Jacky

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