For the first seven weeks of the MLB offseason, the first base market was frozen. Despite a slew of intriguing candidates to pull strings in both free agency and the trade block, there was barely any movement at first base to speak of. Starting pitchers continued to find new homes. Seven catchers signed major league deals. The outfield market gained momentum after the historic signing of Juan Soto.
But the first basemen? Irons.
While Alonso’s agent, Scott Boras, secured lucrative contracts for several other high-profile clients, the first baseman’s uneventful free agency lingered as the most prominent example of his position being overlooked.
But then, the week before Christmas, a tornado of transactional activity began involving Alonso’s positional peers. The Astros, fresh off a failed attempt to trade for Nolan Arenado, a deal that would have moved newly acquired Isaac Paredes to first base, pivoted and signed Christian Walker to a three-year contract to solidify their corner in the chart. The next day, the Yankees agreed to a one-year contract with former MVP Paul Goldschmidt. The D-backs then acquired All-Star Josh Naylor from the Guardians, and Cleveland quickly replaced Naylor with the signing of veteran switch-hitter and familiar face Carlos Santana. Finally, the Nationals reached an agreement with Texas to acquire a former Silver Slugger and Gold Glove winner, Nathaniel Lowe.
Over the course of 48 hours, five first basemen changed teams. Suddenly, a frozen market had quickly thawed. However, Alonso remained available, with minimal rumors suggesting that would soon change. In fact, the calendar has almost changed to 2025 and Alonso is still unsigned.
To be fair, Alonso is a flawed player, one who provides minimal value defensively or on the bases. But for all his shortcomings, he offers a nearly unmatched combination of durability and power production: Only Marcus Semien has played more regular-season games since Alonso’s debut in 2019, and only Aaron Judge has hit more home runs.
In fact, Alonso is one of 10 players in MLB history to hit at least 30 home runs in five of his first six MLB seasons. That group includes five Hall of Famers (Ralph Kiner, Eddie Mathews, Frank Robinson, Ted Williams, Joe DiMaggio), a future first-ballot Hall of Famer (Albert Pujols) and three other fantastic sluggers of the century. XXI (Ryan Braun, Dan Uggla, Marcos Teixeira). Only Pujols reached the 30-homer threshold in each of his first six major league seasons, but Alonso, who hit 16 homers in 57 games in 2020, likely would have had his second MLB season not been shortened due to the pandemic.
Even with that abbreviated campaign, Alonso has one of the greatest collections of home runs to this point in his career that the sport has ever seen. Only Kiner (257) and Pujols (250) hit more home runs during his first six seasons than Alonso (226), an astonishing demonstration of his consistency and availability.
The lack of movement on a sizeable investment in Alonso could also be a reflection of the state of his position. It is no longer the first base where most of the game’s most prodigious sluggers are found. Today, teams’ power production is more distributed across the roster, and first base often serves as a position where multiple players rotate and receive consistent at-bats. There are still a handful of superstars at the position, but far fewer than 20 years ago. Only four top first basemen (Freddie Freeman, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Bryce Harper and Matt Olson) were worth at least 3 WAR in 2024, according to Baseball Reference. This is the fewest first basemen to reach 3 WAR in a full season. since 1963. For comparison, six did so in 2023, 11 in 2021 and an all-time high of 15 first basemen reached 3 WAR back in 1997.
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While Alonso came up short in 2024, he surpassed the 3 WAR mark in four of his first five major league seasons. And as the position has evolved around him (with the legendary careers of Albert Pujols, Miguel Cabrera and Joey Votto officially in the rearview), Alonso has emerged as one of the few everyday stars to remain in his position, the epitome of a first base slugger. in an era that no longer venerates such an archetype. However, due to teams’ reluctance to commit long-term to players of his profile (right-handed first baseman with limited defensive value), Alonso finds himself waiting for a worthwhile deal.
At the beginning of the offseason, a meeting with the Mets seemed to be the most likely and sensible outcome for Alonso’s long-awaited free agency. Queens is where he became the lovable, recognizable mid-order presence he is today. And beyond the club’s pursuit of Soto, retaining Alonso was declared a winter priority by New York leaders. At the time, however, there were several other contenders with notable needs at first base who could have emerged as suitors for a player of Alonso’s ilk, such as the Astros, Yankees and D-backs. As those potential alternatives have dwindled in recent weeks, the Mets have emerged as not only the most ideal options landing spot for Alonso, but it could also be said to be the only one logical landing spot on the left.
It’s this dynamic, plus the industry-wide reluctance to commit substantial resources to his position, that has left Alonso’s free agency seemingly stuck in the mud. In theory, the Mets’ long-standing affinity for the player, combined with owner Steve Cohen’s unparalleled spending power, should result in a sizable deal to keep Alonso in the orange and blue for the long term. But if there are no other clubs aggressively pushing for Alonso’s services, the Mets don’t need to go overboard and bid against themselves. This is a far cry from the Soto draw, in which multiple big-market clubs were collectively driving up the price to the unprecedented heights Cohen was finally willing to reach. In this case, the Mets can wait more comfortably, recognizing that there is much less competition, and hope that Alonso’s demands eventually match the club’s vision for a deal.
If not the Mets, the Giants are emerging as the most logical potential impediment to Alonso’s return to Queens, but they are not the most natural option. Eager to reestablish themselves as a contender, San Francisco made a splash in early December with the signing of shortstop Willy Adames, creating a fantastic left side of the infield alongside Matt Chapman. The Giants are also reportedly interested in increasing their rotation, but have not done so yet.
LaMonte Wade Jr., entering the final year of his contract, is the starter at first base in San Francisco, although he has been the subject of trade discussions. The Giants’ top prospect, Bryce Eldridge, who reached Triple-A this season as a 19-year-old, is also a first baseman and could be knocking on the door in late 2025. Perhaps a Wade trade to make room for a deal Short-term with Alonso would make some sense, but it’s hard to imagine the club committing to Alonso long-term with Eldridge waiting in the wings.
Beyond San Francisco, Toronto is another club that has aggressively attempted to upgrade its roster through free agency but has fallen short on multiple fronts. While first base is pretty much the team’s last need, considering the presence of Vladimir Guerrero Jr., the Blue Jays lineup is in dire need of power production. If Alonso and Guerrero are willing to split the DH and 1B duties, maybe there’s something that fits there. Otherwise, Seattle is the other club with obvious October aspirations that has a unstable first base situation, but the Mariners have not shown anything remotely resembling an appetite for the type of contract Alonso is seeking.
Maybe there’s still a Corbin Burnes-to-Arizona-style upset in store for Alonso, and maybe a mystery team emerges late as a legitimate suitor. Otherwise, all signs point to Alonso staying in Queens, although probably not for the size of the contract he and Boras were seeking at the beginning of the offseason.