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The winter meetings are over, Juan Soto is a New York Met, and several of the big names on this year’s free agent and trade market have been on the move. But as teams began to pivot from their initial plans for this winter, the biggest problem soon became that there were no players available to disrupt the franchise once Soto was off the market.
At least, that was the case until Astros outfielder Kyle Tucker became available.
Since arriving in the Major Leagues in 2019, Tucker has been a force for the Astros and the true definition of a five-tool player. He owns a .274/.353/.516 line with 125 home runs and 94 stolen bases, and is an elite defender in right field. Tucker was on pace to have the best year of his career last season, with 23 home runs in 79 games, before a broken shin from a foul forced him to miss significant time.
In recent weeks, word emerged that the Astros were open to moving the star outfielder.
On Friday, the Astros traded Tucker to the Chicago Cubs in exchange for infielder Isaac Paredes, pitcher Hayden Wesneski and third base prospect Cam Smith.
The deal instantly makes Tucker Chicago’s best player. For Houston, Paredes has the ability to play third or first base with drawing power that should play at Minute Maid Park. Wesneski is a versatile arm with good stuff who pitched in 68 games with 22 starts for the Cubs, with a respectable 3.93 ERA for his career.
But the crown jewel of the trade for the Astros is Smith. The Cubs’ 2024 first-round pick was one of the best hitters in college baseball before Chicago took him with the 14th overall pick last year. He performed well during his first year in professional baseball, hitting .313/.396/.609 with seven home runs and 24 RBIs, and finished the year in Double-A.
What does this deal mean for the Astros?
The Astros have won a lot over the last decade, including two World Series titles. The only team that has won more games than Houston since 2015 is the Los Angeles Dodgers. But keeping their winning window open for so long comes at a cost, and it left the Astros’ prospect pool quite thin. Sources familiar with Houston’s thinking told Yahoo Sports that the hope was that a Tucker trade could help replenish the farm system that has allowed the Astros to reach the American League Championship Series in seven of the last eight seasons.
With that trade now complete, Paredes immediately slots into the Astros’ infield and lineup, and Wesneski could play multiple roles for Houston, either in the bullpen or the rotation, depending on how the rest of their season plays out. low. And with Smith, who was ranked the Cubs’ seventh-ranked prospect by MLB Pipeline, the Astros could have acquired their third baseman of the future.
The other side of the equation for Houston was that team owner Jim Crane doesn’t seem willing to go beyond six years on a contract offer for any player, whether it’s Tucker or a free agent like Alex Bregman, whom The team would like to re-sign. The addition of Paredes will likely make re-signing Bregman less feasible, but Houston could, in theory, move Paredes to the top spot if they still want to retain their longtime star.
What does this mean for the Cubs?
What the Cubs have lacked in recent years has been a true difference-making bat in the middle of their lineup. They haven’t had one since the days of Kris Bryant. Now Tucker offers exactly that: a player who can consistently produce on offense and carry a lineup for weeks at a time. And with other National League teams having game-changing players, including Bryce Harper, Manny Machado and Fernando Tatis Jr., Soto and Francisco Lindor, and the Dodgers’ three MVPs, Chicago now has an answer.
The addition of Tucker also immediately improves the Cubs on defense. With Tucker presumably in right field, Pete Crow-Armstrong in center and Ian Happ in left, it can be argued that the Cubs have one of the best defensive outfields in baseball. What the team will do with outfielders Cody Bellinger and Seiya Suzuki is yet to be determined, but this deal gives Chicago mobile assets to continue improving the roster.
And after this trade, the Cubs have even more incentive to continue improving. The next step for Chicago will be to get one more starting pitcher; For starters, they have been active in the free agent and trade markets. Adding a high-leverage arm or two to the bullpen is also a major need and would really put a seal on what is shaping up to be an impactful winter for the Cubs.
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But there is a warning
For the Cubs, the concern about acquiring Tucker has nothing to do with his talent, which at his peak places him among the top 10 players in MLB, but rather with his contractual situation. The 27-year-old is entering his final season under club control before hitting the free agent market next winter. With the Yankees and Soto, we just witnessed a warning about making a move like this.
New York pulled the trigger on a Soto trade to acquire what they hoped would be the final piece of their championship puzzle, and they were wildly successful, making it all the way to the World Series before falling to the Dodgers. Despite all that, Soto decided to leave in free agency and sign with the Mets, leaving the Bronx Bombers with a major hole in their lineup.
According to sources, Tucker’s entry into free agency after the 2025 season is almost a certainty. After Soto signed his record contract, players like Tucker and Vladimir Guerrero Jr., who will also be a free agent next winter, are even more incentivized to let the free agency process, with a potential $400 million, play out. -500 million pay awaits them at the end.
The Cubs acquired Tucker in a trade with the full knowledge that he could leave in 12 months and sign elsewhere. There’s no guarantee he’ll stay in Chicago or even that they’ll have an advantage in free agency negotiations. In the case of the Yankees, they at least still have a top-five player in Aaron Judge following Soto’s departure, but the Cubs probably won’t have that kind of security.
The trio of players the Cubs waived represent a high price for a one-year rental. But it is understandable that the price was so high. Tucker is the type of player who can take a team over the top as a contender or, perhaps more aptly in Chicago’s case, take a team on the brink of the playoffs and carry it into October. With Soto signed, Tucker was the only player available with that type of skill.
But the Cubs need to make sure they have the rest of the pieces in place before Opening Day. Because they will probably only have one chance with Tucker on their roster.