Kamala Harris’ run for the White House could hinge on a key part of Pennsylvania that she is sure to lose.
Beaver County could prove pivotal to his campaign, based on past Democratic performances, but not by winning it, but rather losing it to Donald Trump by fewer votes.
The conservative, working-class community northwest of Pittsburgh has historically voted Republican in presidential elections.
In 2016, stunning losses in Beaver County helped put the final nail in the coffin of Hillary Clinton’s campaign.
But in 2020, President Joe Biden managed to minimize the margins before his successful election. The county was where he chose to make his closing argument hours before Election Day.
Kamala Harris’ White House candidacy could be doomed by her performance in Beaver County, Pennsylvania
Pennsylvania’s Democratic governor, Josh Shapiro, managed to capture Beaver County in his 2022 gubernatorial bid.
“The race is very close,” Shapiro told the New York Times.
“Four, five, six hundred more votes in a place like Beaver County could make a real difference.”
He and his Democratic colleagues have been campaigning hard for Harris in blue-collar territory.
The vice president also began a bus tour of Pennsylvania in Beaver County in August.
However, Harris might have more work to do considering a local bakery’s highly anecdotal cookie survey.
Kretchmars Bakery, which hosted Barack Obama in 2012, has been cranking out batches of Trump- and Harris-branded cookies and recording sales as a tasty indicator for Nov. 5.
As of midday Tuesday, Trump’s cookies were outselling Harris’s: 2,089 to 836.
Historically, the county has proven to be a bellwether for Democrats’ performance in presidential elections. The local bakery has started selling Harris and Donald Trump cookies as an informal way to gauge support.
Democratic Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro described the race as “very close” and believes a few hundred votes in Beaver County could make the difference.
But in 30 interviews conducted by the New York Times, the picture was much more mixed.
Donald Rea, 64, of Brighton Township, painted a 36-foot-tall, 90-foot-wide Harris sign on his land overlooking the Ohio and Beaver rivers.
He said since creating the sign, several people have approached him to “come out” and express their support for Harris.
But several residents expressed concerns about inflation and immigration, two sticking points throughout Harris’ campaign.
“They’ve had it for the last four years,” Meghan Stanislow, 45, said of Democrats. “We’re barely making it month to month.”
He added that while he doesn’t like Trump personally or his stance on abortion, he can’t stand Harris’ “word salad” and constant mention of her middle-class roots.
Harris desperately needs to gain traction among working-class male voters and has sent running mate Tim Walz on a charm offensive in which he recently showed off his shooting skills on a farm 126 miles from Beaver County.
However, a video appealing to male voters was mocked after its release earlier this month, with many claiming it reduced masculinity to “shameful” stereotypes.
Democrats don’t think they’ll win Beaver County, but they’re just trying to minimize losses.
Former Pennsylvania Rep. Conor Lamb expressed doubts about Harris’ campaign in the area.
“It may not be visible until the end, but I can’t say I’m seeing progress yet,” he said.
He also acknowledged that there is a risk that Harris will lose even more white working-class voters than her predecessors.
“If it turns out that people are that angry about inflation or, you know, any problem, it could certainly go in the other direction,” he said.
