James Carville is a veteran political consultant who served as chief campaign strategist for President Bill Clinton’s successful 1992 presidential campaign.
How ironic that in 2024 the Democrats will once again hold the Democratic National Convention in Chicago.
Because I fear that what happened in 1968 will be repeated.
Nearly six decades ago, delegates gathered inside the International Amphitheater in the Windy City to nominate Hubert Humphrey for president, but chaos reigned outside.
Ten thousand protesters against the Vietnam War were met by more than two thousand police officers and members of the National Guard.
I remember seeing it all when I was 23, fresh out of the Marine Corps. The war was as real as it could be for me.
Tear gas was fired into the crowd. The officers indiscriminately beat the protesters. Hundreds of people were sent to hospital and even more were injured.
Television cameras captured it all, telling Americans at home that the disorder they feared was worse than it seemed.
I’m not predicting that the streets of Chicago will erupt in violence again, but if tensions in the Democratic Party continue to rise due to the ongoing war between Israel and Gaza, the malcontents will look for a way out. And their numbers can be overwhelming.
In Michigan’s Democratic primary, 100,000 voters voted for “uncommitted” instead of President Joe Biden. And along with the Arab-American communities of Dearborn and Hamtramck and the college students of Ann Arbor, Michigan, black voters are angry about the carnage in Gaza.
Last weekend, First Lady Jill Biden was heckled at a campaign event in Arizona. ‘It’s genocide, Jill!’ one protester shouted. ‘You and her husband support the genocide of the Palestinian people!’ another shouted.
Nearly six decades ago, delegates gathered inside the International Amphitheater in the Windy City to nominate Hubert Humphrey for president, but chaos reigned outside. (Above) Police and protesters clash near the Conrad Hilton Hotel on Chicago’s Michigan Avenue on August 28, 1968 during the Democratic National Convention.
Tear gas was fired into the crowd. The officers indiscriminately beat the protesters. Hundreds of people were sent to hospital and even more were injured. (Above) A protester with his hands on his head is led by Chicago police down Michigan Avenue on the night of August 28, 1968.
I remember seeing it all when I was 23, fresh out of the Marine Corps. The war was as real as it could be for me. (Above) Author James Carville with Bill Clinton in 1992
Certainly, the American far left, of which I have a very low opinion, is mobilized by the war. And they will undoubtedly seek to exploit the unrest this creates, foolishly believing that unrest advances their cause. But the deep unrest over this conflict extends far beyond the grassroots.
It would be a grave mistake for Democrats to ignore that.
It is increasingly clear that if Biden wins a second term, it will not be with a doubling of his 2020 coalition. A winning alliance for Democrats in 2024 will be older and whiter.
Enthusiasm among Democratic voters is in the toilet. Support among black Americans, particularly black men, and those under 30 is nowhere near where it should be.
Four more months of war will only lead to more difficult times in Chicago, and the White House knows it.
Not surprisingly, before the Michigan primary, President Biden said he thought a ceasefire was imminent, although he was perhaps the only person who believed it. Maybe it was an illusion.
During the president’s impromptu White House press conference last month following special counsel Robert Hur’s report, the president stepped away from the podium, only to turn on his heel and answer one more question about… Gaza.
On Sunday, Vice President Kamala Harris demanded an immediate ceasefire in Gaza in her most direct rebuke of the Israeli government to date. ‘People in Gaza are starving. The conditions are inhumane and our common humanity compels us to act,” she said as she stood in front of the Edmund Pettus Bridge in Selma, Alabama, where state troopers brutally beat civil rights protesters nearly 60 years ago.
And on Monday, Harris met at the White House with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s main political rival.
Now, there is no doubt that the GOP faces even stronger headwinds than the Democrats in 2024. Republicans have barely won since the Supreme Court overturned Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization and ruled that the Constitution does not guarantee a woman’s right to abortion.
But either way, it would be incredibly crazy for Democrats to dismiss the magnitude of their political problem.
My other big concern, which I’ve talked a lot about, is President Biden’s age. The administration can potentially improve the situation in the Middle East by reining in the Israelis or sending more humanitarian aid to Gaza, but there is no way to reduce the number of candles on the president’s birthday cake.
I’ve been around for a long time and all of this together tells me that there will be very unpredictable moments in this election.
I don’t know exactly what they are going to be. But I promise you, they will come.
Maybe, in Chicago.
And Democrats are running out of time to do something about it.