A Category 3 hurricane made landfall in Cuba on Wednesday as the 17th named storm of the season, but its path has left meteorologists perplexed.
While Rafael is expected to remain in the Gulf and move westward for at least the next few days, forecasters have variable data suggesting its direction beyond that.
A significant change in the storm’s forecast track is decreasing the threat to the U.S. and increasing the chances that it will head toward the Gulf Coast, but its likely path remains unclear.
The National Hurricane Center said there is “above average uncertainty in Rafael’s future path.” KRLD reported.
“Most models show Rafael turning southwest in response to the formation of a narrow ridge to the northwest,” the agency said. “But the Global Forecast System and Canadian models still suggest a northward turn ahead of a slightly deeper upper trough over the central United States.”
A spaghetti model showed Rafael has six potential paths toward the U.S., but experts say none of them are as likely as the storm moving west toward Mexico.
AccuWeather meteorologists, however, said it is still “too early to give the go-ahead to tropical impacts along the Gulf Coast.”
Hurricane Rafael left ten million people in the dark as the storm swept across the island, bringing torrential rain and strong winds that reached 105 mph and knocking out the entire country’s power grid.
On Thursday, the storm that moved away from Cuba entered the Gulf of Mexico as a Category 2 hurricane, leaving behind damaged homes, uprooted trees and downed telephone poles.
When Rafael first formed, it looked like it could head straight for the US, and the initial forecast included the Florida Keys.
Heavy rain was expected to spread northward into Florida and nearby areas of the southeastern U.S. by mid-to-late week.
A few tornadoes were also expected Wednesday over the Keys and southwest Florida.
But so far, it appears that Rafael will be confined to the southern Gulf of Mexico in the coming days as it weakens slightly in intensity, rather than approaching the US Gulf Coast, making the threat of it hitting There is little or no land in the US, according to KRLD. reported.
Homes in western Cuba were destroyed after Hurricane Rafael, a Category 3 storm, made landfall in the country on Wednesday.
Torrential rains hit Cuba and winds reached up to 105 mph, knocking out the entire country’s power grid.
Rafael moved away from Cuba on Thursday and entered the Gulf of Mexico as a Category 2 hurricane, leaving behind damaged homes, uprooted trees and downed telephone poles.
Although there are no coastal watches or warnings in effect, the National Hurricane Center says the storm surge generated by Rafael is expected to spread throughout the Gulf of Mexico, likely creating life-threatening waves and rip current conditions.
Rafael intensified rapidly before hitting Cuba on Wednesday afternoon, becoming the ninth rapidly intensifying storm in the Atlantic basin this year alone, CNN reported.
The storm dealt a devastating blow for the first time as a Category 3 hurricane – the first to hit Cuba since Ian in 2022 and the second hurricane to hit the country in the last two weeks, leaving at least seven people dead.
Forecasters warned the hurricane could bring “life-threatening” storm surge, winds and flash flooding to western swaths of the island after it knocked out power and dumped rain on the Cayman Islands and Jamaica just a day before hitting Cuba.
Earlier on Wednesday, the Cuban government issued an alert for the incoming storm as teams in Havana worked to fortify buildings and remove debris from coastal areas in anticipation of flooding.
In parts of the island, classes and public transportation were suspended and flights in and out of Havana and Varadero were canceled.
The National Hurricane Center said there is “above average uncertainty in Rafael’s future path.”
Thousands of people in the western parts of the island were evacuated.
“This is a night I don’t want to sleep, between the whipping air and the trees,” said Silvia Pérez, a 72-year-old retiree who lives in the coastal area of Havana as she prepared to flee.
“I’m scared for my friends and my family.”
The Ministry of Energy and Mines said Thursday it was making progress in restoring power to residents of eastern and central Cuba, but warned it would take longer in the western part of the island, where Rafael hit the hardest. Aljazeera reported.
The capital, Havana, home to two million people, was still without power Thursday night.
But forecasters now don’t know where Hurricane Rafael is headed next.
Schools and businesses have been closed and transport services are just beginning to operate again.
José Ignacio Dimas, a security guard who lives in Havana, arrived home to discover that his apartment building, which is in the city’s historic center, had collapsed, Aljazeera reported.
“The entire front wall of the building fell down,” he said.
But, like many buildings in the capital, it was aging and lacked regular maintenance.
When Rafael entered the Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday night, it became the fifth hurricane to move through the Gulf in November since 1966, CNN reported.
