The Biden administration this week introduced new export restrictions designed to monitor AI progress globally and ultimately prevent the most advanced AI from falling into the hands of China. The rule is just the latest in a series of measures implemented by Donald Trump and Joe Biden to keep Chinese AI in check.
Featuring leading AI figures, including OpenAI Sam Altman and anthropic Dario Amodei By warning of the need to “beat China” on AI, the Trump administration could well escalate things further.
Pablo Triolo He is a partner at DGA Group, a global consulting firm, a member of the Council on Foreign Relations, and a senior advisor to the University of Pennsylvania’s Penn Project on the Future of US-China Relations. Alvin Graylin is an entrepreneur who previously ran China operations for Taiwanese electronics company HPC. Together they have been following China’s AI industry and the impact of US sanctions. In an email exchange, Triolo and Graylin discussed the latest sanctions, Silicon Valley rhetoric, and the dangers of viewing global AI as a zero-sum game.
This interview has been edited for clarity and brevity.
What do you think of the new AI diffusion rule adopted this week by the US government, which aims to curb China’s access to AI?
Paul Triolo: Generally focused on high-performance computing clusters. The rule also establishes controls on proprietary model weights for more advanced “frontier” models, but it is unclear how performance levels will be determined, and most open-weight (freely shared) AI models are fine-tuned. and improved by users, including leading AI companies. in China.
The complex rule and unclear compliance conditions inject considerable uncertainty into the long-term plans of hyperscalers, both medium and large, American and Western.
For hyperscalers like Google, Microsoft, AWS, and Oracle, the rule introduces critical issues, including slower or more complex international expansion, new legal and compliance costs, impact on global research and development, and uncertain application requirements.
How have previous measures, including sanctions introduced by the first Trump administration, affected the AI industry there?
Paul Triolo: US export controls have held China back, but at a high level sanctions have unified the Chinese government’s will and efforts to become more self-sufficient. It has invested tens of billions to help local players catch up technologically or expand capacity in core areas, resulting in significant changes within the semiconductor industry and its ability to support advanced hardware to develop. cutting-edge AI models.
Chinese AI developers have become very good at leveraging legacy AI hardware from Western companies and gradually integrating domestic alternatives into their development process. Chinese companies will continue to innovate across AI hardware and software, although not at the pace of their Western counterparts.
Why do you think so many people in Silicon Valley are now talking about the need to “beat China” in AI?
Paul Triolo: There is a growing link between conservative venture capitalists, mostly located in Silicon Valley, and technology companies whose business models depend on exaggerating the threat from China. It is a worrying combination that combines the threat from China, personal gain and the rejection of regulation of advanced AI. It also presents the competition between the United States and China over AI as zero-sum, which is particularly dangerous.