An Australian professor has issued a chilling warning about the wildfires ravaging Los Angeles, saying they could hit suburban Sydney or Melbourne.
It comes as the death toll from the California inferno has reached five, with 100,000 people ordered to evacuate and another 100,000 put on hold, as firefighters battle hellish conditions on the front lines of at least five different fires.
Fires have reached the suburbs, including the affluent Pacific Pallisades neighborhood, where celebrity homes were reduced to ashes and rubble.
University of Tasmania pyrogeography and fire sciences professor David Bowman said Thursday that Australian suburbs are not immune to bushfires.
‘Could something similar happen in major Australian cities? And how prepared are we? The answers are: yes, and not much,” he wrote in an article for The conversation.
Australian cities lack the strong Santa Ana winds that fan the flames in Los Angeles, Professor Bowman said, but they do have downslope winds that come over mountain ranges.
‘There is a possibility that the fires will affect Australian suburbs. It happened in Canberra in 2003.
‘And it could happen again in a major city like Sydney or Melbourne. We have all the ingredients.
Professor of pyrogeography and fire sciences at the University of Tasmania, David Bowman, said on Thursday that Australian suburbs are not immune to bushfires.
The Los Angeles fires have reached the suburbs, including the affluent Pacific Pallisades neighborhood, where celebrity homes were reduced to ashes and rubble.
Australian cities lack the strong Santa Ana winds that fan the flames in Los Angeles, Professor Bowman said, but they do have downslope winds that come over mountain ranges.
“If there is the wrong wind, the wrong fire and the wrong time, a fire can spread very quickly to an urban area.”
Professor Bowman said older houses with older gardens were particularly at risk.
“If you have more modern homes (which tend to defend themselves better against ember attacks), and the houses are more spaced out and the gardens are lighter, then you might be fine.”
He said suburban areas needed better boundaries between houses, clearer yards and fire breaks, as well as fire safety messages aimed at suburbs, not just rural residents.
“Many regional and rural areas of Australia have places of last resort – safe places that the community can go to when all other bushfire plans have failed,” he said.
‘The Los Angeles tragedy shows that we also need these places in cities.
‘People should also be informed about what to expect at the evacuation point when they arrive. Whenever possible, they should bring their own food, water and medications and include pets in their plan.
“And the planning debate should include residents in fire-prone areas installing their own specially designed fire shelters in their homes, if they can afford it.”
Thousands of homes and structures have already been lost in California, but with fires still burning, it is impossible for officials to understand the true magnitude of the losses.
When fire reaches the suburbs, the damage can be variable, he said. Some houses could burn down and others could survive.
But the worst case scenario is what is called “house-to-house ignition,” where houses become the fuel.
“The other scary dimension is what happens if the water supply runs out, which is reportedly happening in some parts of Los Angeles,” he explained.
‘Global warming is making Australian bushfires more frequent and severe. As wildfires become more frequent, home insurance costs are increasing. That will affect the cost of living and the economy in general.
‘The Los Angeles fires show that when it comes to climate change, there is nowhere to hide. Around the world, authorities and communities must review their assumptions about wildfire risk and preparedness. That includes people who live in cities.
‘Many regional and rural areas of Australia have bushfire sites of last resort – safe places for the community to go when all other fire plans have failed.
‘The Los Angeles tragedy shows that we also need these places in cities. People also need a plan for how to get there (walking or cycling, where possible), so that traffic jams don’t occur when everyone tries to escape.’
A fierce new wildfire broke out in Los Angeles’ Hollywood Hills at 6 p.m. local time Wednesday.
The worst case scenario is what is called “house-to-house lighting”, where houses become the fuel, Professor Bowman said.
The fire has prompted the evacuation of the iconic Hollywood Boulevard, amid warnings that another 100,000 residents should be prepared to evacuate their homes.
Thousands of homes and structures have already been lost across California, but with fires still burning it is impossible for officials to understand the true magnitude of the losses.
A trio of smaller fires burning across the state are now contained, but several are still burning, in addition to the Hollywood Hills fire that just started.
To make matters worse, the National Weather Service says gusty winds and very dry conditions will continue to fuel fires in the Los Angeles area in the coming days.
Australia is no stranger to bushfires, which are a natural part of the country’s environment. But the danger has increased in recent years.
The Black Summer, which spanned the 2019-2020 summer, was among the worst fire seasons on record.
Fires in several states killed at least 34 people, leveled 3,000 buildings and killed or displaced some 3 billion animals.
A composite made from NASA satellite images showed where wildfires ravaged the nation between December 5, 2019 and January 5, 2020.
A composite made from NASA satellite images showed where wildfires ravaged the nation between December 5, 2019 and January 5, 2020.
“The scale is a little exaggerated due to the brightness of the render, but overall it is faithful to the information on the NASA website,” said the image’s creator, Anthony Hearsey.