A little over a year ago, Anthony Albanese and his fiancée Jodie Haydon enjoyed a sumptuous three-course meal of pumpkin soup, short ribs and chocolate mousse cake at a state dinner with Joe and Jill Biden at the White House.
The Prime Minister issued a joint statement with the then President of the United States in which they welcomed “a new era of strategic cooperation between the United States and Australia.”
Albanese spoke effusively of the “three pillars of our alliance: defense, economy, climate and clean energy cooperation.”
But that third pillar will almost certainly crumble and shatter following Donald Trump’s historic return to power.
The president-elect has not been shy about articulating what he thinks about climate change, calling it a “hoax” and “one of the great scams of all time.”
He dismantled nearly 100 climate policies in his first term as president in 2016.
He is likely to try to pull the United States out of the Paris climate agreement, which aims to keep the global average temperature below 2 degrees above pre-industrial levels, for the second time.
Trump has also told his supporters of his plans to “drill, baby, drill” by massively increasing American oil and gas production.
A little over a year ago, Anthony Albanese and his fiancée Jodie Haydon enjoyed a sumptuous three-course meal of pumpkin soup, short ribs, and chocolate mousse cake at a state dinner with Joe and Jill Biden at the White House (in the photo).
But that third pillar will almost certainly crumble and shatter following Donald Trump’s historic return to power.
Australia’s richest person, Gina Rinehart, proudly unveiled a sign reading “drill, baby, drill” at Trump’s election night party at Mar-a-Lago.
He has also said he would ban all offshore wind projects from the first day of his presidency, claiming they kill whales.
What does this mean for Australia?
A key aspect of that “third pillar” that sustains diplomatic relations between Australia and the United States was the signing of a Transformation Pact on Climate, Critical Minerals and Clean Energy in March 2023 between Biden and Albanese on the sidelines of the G7 .
The Pact aims to coordinate both countries’ climate and clean energy initiatives in the Indo-Pacific, with a focus on electric vehicle supply chains, especially critical minerals needed in battery production, in addition to the production of green hydrogen.
But Samuel Garrett, a research associate at the Center for American Studies, said “Trump is very likely to walk away” from the Pact.
“We will almost certainly see that erased from history if Trump is re-elected, at least during his term,” Garrett said. S.B.S..
“But that said, much of the substance of the Climate Pact is likely to be preserved, particularly aspects related to things like cooperation on critical minerals, which are a very important aspect of that agreement.”
Garrett suggested that while Trump could “cripple deeper climate cooperation between Australia and the United States” and “could be detrimental to the public view of the United States in Australia… there are many ways that cooperation will continue.”
Dr Emma Shortis, director of international and security affairs at the Australian Institute think tank, told the ABC that Trump’s success had “huge implications for Australia”.
“An incoming Trump administration undoes any and all US climate actions,” he said.
He added: “Australia and our partners in the region will have to act increasingly cautiously as the United States becomes more predictable and volatile in the coming weeks and months.”
Before Trump was elected, Energy and Climate Change Minister Chris Bowen downplayed the impact he would have on the global fight against climate change.
‘First of all, it is the United States. That is why the functions of the State are very important. And maybe unlike 2016, where the result was a surprise, if it’s a Trump administration, people are preparing for it more,” Bowen said. the guardian.
Australia’s richest person Gina Rinehart proudly unveiled a sign reading “drill, baby, drill” at Trump’s election night party at Mar-a-Lago (pictured)
‘Second, it is difficult to legislate in the United States, but it is also difficult to delegislate. So the Inflation Reduction Act is the law of the land and will remain so unless it is repealed, which will be very difficult to do.
‘And thirdly, the private sector can help. In the United States, regardless of federal mandates, they know that (climate action) is good business.”
The Inflation Reduction Act, which was signed into law in 2022, triggered a “clean energy arms race” around the world by investing $370 billion in clean energy projects through a variety of subsidies and tax credits.
Bowen acknowledged that a Trump presidency would alter the dynamics of the global climate battle, but insisted that it would not radically alter its course.
This may be wishful thinking, given that the United States is the world’s second-largest emitter of greenhouse gases, behind only China.
Bowen also chairs something called an “umbrella group” at the COP29 climate summit in Azerbaijan next week.
The Umbrella Group, made up of nations such as the United States, United Kingdom, Canada and Japan, presents a united front at the 200-nation summit.
For example, at Cop28 the Umbrella Group refused to sign an agreement that would be a “death certificate” for small Pacific islands.
It is unclear whether the United States will withdraw from the Umbrella Group now that Trump is president-elect.
The Prime Minister issued a joint statement with the then President of the United States in which they welcomed “a new era of strategic cooperation between the United States and Australia.” Albanese spoke effusively of the “three pillars of our alliance: defense, economy, climate and clean energy cooperation.”
Another issue that is certainly at the forefront of Bowen’s mind is when he will announce Australia’s 2035 emissions reduction target under the Paris climate agreement.
The deadline is February, but Bowen has declined to say whether he will reveal a target before the next federal election.
Some have pointed out that this is because the main issue likely to dominate the election is the cost of living crisis and the government does not want to risk appearing more focused on climate targets that have no discernible impact in the short term. of the voters. -term lives.
This is exacerbated by the fact that opposition leader Peter Dutton has stated that he will not announce the 2035 target before the election and his lobby for nuclear energy, a policy favored by Trump.
Professor Michelle Grattan, esteemed journalist and senior political correspondent for The conversationargued that Bowen faced threats from all sides over the 2035 goal.
“A bold target would make the government more vulnerable, just when Labor would want to draw attention to the Coalition’s problematic nuclear policy,” Professor Grattan wrote.
“On the other hand, if the goal were modest, the Greens would take advantage of it.”
