Table of Contents
As Joe Biden spends the weekend trying to revive his embattled re-election campaign, senior Democrats are weighing the odds of his potential replacement.
Even Biden’s most ardent supporters have begun calling for the president to drop out of the race following his disastrous debate against Donald Trump, in which he stumbled over his words and lost his train of thought.
Biden has insisted he remains the Democrats’ best bet to beat Trump, but there is still time to replace him as the party’s nominee, and names of possible replacements are being bandied about.
The Democratic National Committee’s official procedures for the convention, adopted in 2022, give the committee the authority to choose a new candidate if any member of the slate dies or withdraws.
Joe Biden is set to discuss his political future with his family after critics called on him to drop out of the race following his disastrous debate against Donald Trump.
The party’s presidential candidate is formally nominated at the Democratic National Convention in Chicago in August, where delegates remain obligated to support him unless Biden himself announces he is dropping out of the race.
The Convention would then assume the responsibility of voting on an alternative, of which there are numerous options.
Here are the betting odds to win the presidential election – that is, the amount one could win for every $100 wagered on each candidate – for some of the most popular Biden replacements according to Probability checker.
Gavin Newsom – Odds +1150
The California governor, who is in the midst of his second and final term, has thrust himself into the spotlight of the Biden campaign, leaving many speculating whether he is interested in the job.
His odds have risen to +1150, even though polls show he would lose in a matchup against Trump.
A post-presidential debate poll by research firm Data for Progress asked more than 1,000 people who they would vote for in a race between Trump and the top Democrats.
Newsom, 56, California’s governor and one of Biden’s leading supporters, lost 44 percent to 47 percent to Trump in a hypothetical matchup.
Newsom, 56, lost 44 to 47 percent to Donald Trump, 78.
His role as a top Biden campaign surrogate has made him a target of Republicans who have repeatedly held up California as an example of Democratic mismanagement.
Newsom’s record in the Golden State has a huge budget deficit and big cities like San Francisco and Los Angeles have been devastated by crime and homelessness.
The former first lady’s chances of replacing Biden have intensified after the debate and she has long been rumored to be considering launching her own political career.
Oddschecker put it at +1650. However, an exclusive poll conducted in March by DailyMail.com/JL Partners of 1,000 likely voters found that he would lose to the former president by three points in a hypothetical matchup.
The idea of Michelle Obama running for president has been occasionally raised by Democrats concerned about Biden’s advanced age and his ability to win a second election.
Michelle Obama’s chances of replacing Biden have intensified after the debate, and she has reportedly stayed away from campaigning for Joe Biden.
They believe that his easy contact with voters, his star power and, at 60 years old, his relative youth, could prevent the White House from falling into Republican hands.
Her potential candidacy has gained traction among right-wing pundits, who have cited her potential candidacy as a way to undermine Biden’s campaign.
After the presidential debate, Republican Senator Ted Cruz said he believes the former first lady could be the next presidential candidate.
“Nine months ago, on Verdict, I predicted that Democrats would replace Biden with Michelle Obama. I think that’s going to happen,” Cruz said on X.
Michelle has avoided campaigning for Joe Biden because of her private frustration over how the family treated her friend Kathleen Buhle during her messy divorce from Hunter Biden, according to reports.
Gretchen Whitmer – Odds +3300
The 52-year-old governor of Michigan, a key swing state in the 2024 election, is considered a rising star in the party.
In the post-debate poll conducted by Data for Progress, Whitmer trailed Trump by 44 percent to 46 percent in a potential matchup. However, her odds of winning the election have risen to +3300.
Whitmer is very popular in the key state, which voted for Donald Trump by a slim margin of 0.3 percent and for Biden in 2020 by a margin of 2.8 percent.
Whitmer is very popular in her key state, but lost 44 percent to Trump’s 46 percent in polls after the presidential debate.
“That woman in Michigan,” as Trump describes her, is a former prosecutor and mother of two who supports stricter gun laws and repealing abortion bans.
In 2020, the FBI foiled a plot by a right-wing militia to kidnap Whitmer after she angered conservatives with her harsh response to the Covid pandemic.
He has a memoir due out next month that some cynically believe was perfect for a potential presidential bid.
Kamala Harris – Odds +3300
An obvious choice to replace Biden would be Vice President Harris, 59, whom her president has reportedly referred to as a “work in progress.”
Harris is the natural successor to the presidency if Biden steps down during his term, but Democrats have for years criticized her performance and believe she should not replace Biden before the election.
The Data for Progress poll shows Harris losing 45 percent to Trump’s 48 percent, as does her current running mate, while her odds of winning the election are +3300.
Harris is said to be ‘furious’ that she is not being considered as Biden’s replacement, reported Political.
Harris is said to be “furious” that she is not being considered as Biden’s replacement.
A Washington, DC political operative described to DailyMail.com the “Kamala conundrum” as a result of Biden and Democrats playing the “dangerous game” of identity politics to boost their numbers among the black community.
“She could be very good for the grassroots, right?” he said. “But you still need independent voters who just don’t trust her.”
Other possibilities
Other names being thrown into the ring as possible replacement candidates include up-and-coming party members and even former presidential hopefuls.
Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg and New Jersey Sen. Corey Booker each lost 44 percent to Trump’s 47 percent in the Data for Progress matchup.
Minnesota Sen. Amy Klobuchar, Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro and Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker each lost 43 percent to 46 percent in a matchup against Trump.
Pritzker, a billionaire venture capitalist and heir to the Hyatt hotel fortune, has the considerable advantage of being able to throw a lot of money at a presidential campaign.
His odds, along with Shapiro’s, are +20000, while Booker’s are +40000.
