The College Football Playoff has expanded for the 2024 season, but the field of realistic national title contenders remains fairly small.
According to BetMGM odds, Four teams have odds of +850 or higher to win the national titleGeorgia is the favorite at +300, ahead of Ohio State at +325. Oregon is at +700, while Texas sits at +850 after some injuries in the backfield.
Overall, nine teams have odds of 20-1 or better to win the national title. After those nine, the reigning national champion Michigan Wolverines are +3000 along with Florida State, a team that finished undefeated during the regular season in 2023.
Any of the teams behind these in the table can reasonably be considered dark horses. Will any of them win the national title? Probably not. But if you look hard enough, you can convince yourself that some teams have a chance of winning the national title. Here are the five dark horses we would consider outside the main group of favorites.
You don’t have to squint too hard to see how Tennessee could be a national title contender. Nico Iamaleava is one of the favorites to win the Heisman thanks to his pedigree as a former five-star recruit and his performance in the Citrus Bowl against Iowa.
He’ll have Squirrel White and Bru McCoy to throw to, along with an offensive line that returns three starters. The defensive line could also be one of the SEC’s best. James Pearce returns after recording 10 sacks and former BYU linebacker Keenan Pili should be an immediate impact transfer.
The schedule is also favorable. There are trips to Georgia and Oklahoma, but Alabama plays at home and every other SEC game is very winnable. An SEC title would mean a guaranteed bye to the CFP and if Iamaleava is indeed a Heisman contender, then a national title isn’t totally out of the question.
The Tigers have the best schedule of any SEC team, one of the best quarterbacks in the conference and a wide receiver who might be the best in the country at his position. You can’t blame Mizzou fans for dreaming of the playoffs, even though everyone knows a punch in the gut seems to always be lurking around the corner.
Brady Cook threw for more than 3,300 yards in 2023, making dramatic improvement from last season. Luther Burden had 86 receptions for 1,212 yards and will be the focus of opposing defenses. RBs Nate Noel and Marcus Carroll have each rushed for 1,000 yards before and could replace Cody Schrader’s production.
The defense was bolstered through the transfer portal and there’s reason to believe it could be as good as it was in 2023. With the SEC’s decision to get rid of divisions, Georgia is not on the schedule and the Tigers’ three toughest games are trips to Alabama and Texas A&M and a home game against Oklahoma. Don’t be surprised if Missouri sneaks into the SEC title game. And from there, who knows what could happen.
Utah (+4000)
We think the Utes’ odds of winning the title are a bit low. We like Utah as the favorite in the newly expanded Big 12, and with all four major conference champions receiving byes, a conference title means one less playoff game to play.
This is a team that showed how important competent quarterback performance is in 2023. And Cam Rising is more than competent. The seventh-year quarterback should take Utah’s offense from “bad” to “very good” or better. Couple that with a phenomenal defense, and this is a team that has its sights set on the playoffs and beyond.
It also helps that Kansas State is not on the regular season schedule. It’s not out of the question that Utah could go undefeated during the regular season if Rising is back to the level it was at in 2022.
The Tigers have lost at least three games in each of the past three seasons, but there’s a chance that trend could be broken in 2024 despite a Week 1 game against Georgia.
The offensive philosophy change in 2023 was an up-and-down affair. Another offseason in former TCU offensive coordinator Garrett Riley’s system could be huge for quarterback Cade Klubnik and his comfort level. The offensive line returns four starters and should be one of the ACC’s best.
There’s a fair amount of turnover on defense, but Dabo Swinney’s ability to recruit can still be relied upon. There’s plenty of talent on the roster, even if the Tigers remain transfer-hesitant. The schedule also includes a trip to Florida State, but a loss there shouldn’t eliminate the Tigers from ACC title contention.
Miami (+5000)
If you’re in “believe it when you see it” mode on the Hurricanes, we don’t blame you. But here’s the optimistic case. Cam Ward might be the best quarterback Miami has had in years and he has two great receivers to throw to in Xavier Restrepo and Jacolby George. The offensive line has three returning starters and added one big addition in former Indiana center Zach Carpenter.
The defense needs to replace safety Kam Kinchens, but Francisco Mauigoa is back and so is Rueben Bain. It should be a very good unit again.
It’s also possible to believe that Mario Cristobal won’t make the same game management mistakes he did in 2023. That’s a given, right? The schedule opens with a trip to Florida, but the toughest ACC games against Virginia Tech and Florida State are at home. If Miami can regain some of its form throughout the season, this team has some pretty high potential.
