House prices in Queensland’s affordable regional cities are expected to continue rising by double digits in 2025, as they fall in Australia’s largest cities.
Propertyology research director Simon Pressley predicts double-digit booms in just nine of Australia’s 25 largest cities this year, defined as those with at least 100,000 residents.
This is despite expectations of interest rate cuts by the Reserve Bank of Australia.
Sydney, Melbourne and Canberra are expected to perform poorly.
But cities where house prices are still affordable or close to the beach are forecast to do particularly well, especially in northern Australia, which is prone to floods and cyclones.
Pressley, a buyer’s agent, is particularly optimistic about Townsville in northern Queensland, predicting increases of 25 to 30 per cent this year.
“The largest city in all of northern Australia will win the premiership of the national property market in 2025,” he said.
South Townsville is particularly affordable, with a median house price of $539,771, following a 24 per cent increase over the past year, according to CoreLogic data.
House prices in Queensland’s affordable regional cities are expected to continue rising by double digits in 2025, as they fall in Australia’s largest cities (pictured, a house in South Townsville on the market for about $500,000).
However, it is still achievable for someone with a 20 per cent mortgage deposit of $107,954 and a salary of $83,000.
Mackay, also in northern Queensland, was expected to see growth of 12 to 16 per cent.
“Investors from all corners of the country are also attracted to the above-average rental yields of Mackay real estate,” Pressley said.
South Mackay’s median house price of $462,902 remains very affordable and attainable for someone earning $71,216 even after prices rose 16.5 per cent over the past year.
Cairns, in far north Queensland, was expected to see growth of 7 to 11 per cent, considering the tropical city was home to a naval base, health and construction jobs, and was receiving an airport upgrade worth 80 million dollars.
Parramatta Park, near the city, still has a median affordable house price of $596,882, after an annual increase of 7.2 per cent, and is a possibility for someone earning $91,828.
In southern Queensland, the town of Toowoomba, in the Lockyer Valley hinterland, was expected to see growth of 9 to 13 per cent.
Pressley said 2025 in Australia’s second outback city after Canberra “looks like another year of double-digit growth in property values”.
Cairns, in far north Queensland, was expected to see growth of 7 to 11 per cent. Parramatta Park, near the city, still has a median affordable house price of $596,882 (pictured is a house in that suburb that sold for $631,000 in November 2024).
The median house price in Newtown town center has soared 17.5 per cent over the past year to $580,097.
Brisbane’s housing market was expected to see growth of 7 to 10 per cent this year, following last year’s 11 per cent rise that saw median house prices rise to $974,396.
The Gold Coast was expected to see growth of 10 to 13 per cent in 2025.
Burleigh Waters has been the best performing suburb near the beach over the past year, with the median house price rising 13.2 per cent to an even more unaffordable $1.681 million.
The Sunshine Coast was expected to see a 12 to 16 per cent increase.
Moffat Beach, near Caloundra, performed particularly strongly, up 14.2 per cent year-on-year to $1.464 million.
Outside of Queensland, Perth was also expected to record double-digit growth in 2025.
The Western Australian capital was forecast to see house price growth of 10 to 14 per cent, adding to the 20.7 per cent growth on last year that took the city’s median house price to $842,227 .
The Sunshine Coast was expected to see a 12 to 16 per cent increase. Moffat Beach, near Caloundra, performed particularly strongly, up 14.2 per cent to $1.464 million (pictured is a house that sold for $1.6765 million in September).
Adelaide was expected to see growth of 8 to 11 per cent, adding to the 13.4 per cent increase over the last year that took the city’s median house price to $865,563.
But the story was expected to be very different in Australia’s most populated cities.
Sydney house prices were expected to fall between 3 and 5 per cent in 2025, after a year in which annual growth slowed to just 3.5 per cent.
The median home price of $1.483 million means investors are getting low rental yields, defined as annual rental income minus expenses as a proportion of the property price.
“Aside from the unattractive outlook for Sydney property values, Sydney’s investment property cash flow equation is the most dire it has ever been,” Mr Pressley said.
Melbourne, Australia’s worst-performing capital property market in 2024, was expected to have another lackluster year as the Victorian government’s $975 investor land tax continued to discourage potential buyers.
Pressley predicted that at best prices would rise by just 1 percent and at worst fall by 2 percent in 2025, even though the city would receive a large influx of foreign migration.
“While it will always be a great city, the sad reality is that Melbourne is now in the midst of a ‘decade of stagnation’ created by a cesspool of poor policies, terrible taxes, poisonous collusion, ruthless attacks on financial aspirants and a disastrous state. public debt,” he stated.
Melbourne’s median house price fell 2.3 per cent over the past year to $923,422, putting it behind Brisbane and Canberra.
Canberra, the national capital, was expected to see house prices fall by 1 to 4 per cent in 2025, following a 0.7 per cent rise to $972,753 in 2024, as more residents moved to other parts of Australia.
“Multiple indicators point in the wrong direction for the Canberra housing market,” Pressley said. “I expect this housing market to remain stable for a while yet.”