Western analysts said Moscow’s response in the aftermath of the strike was so coordinated, they questioned why no reports of the attack appeared in Moscow before the Kremlin’s official announcement, which came 12 hours after the incident.
Videos published by the Russian Ministry of Defense about targeting the Kremlin building with two drones sparked a wave of mutual accusations between Moscow, Kiev and Washington.
And when Russia accused Ukraine of attempting to assassinate President Vladimir Putin, the latter denied this, and its president, Volodymyr Zelensky, said: “We did not attack Putin or Moscow, but we are fighting on our lands only.”
For his part, US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken said today, Wednesday, that he could not prove the validity of Russia’s accusation that Ukraine tried to assassinate Putin, noting that “we view with suspicion anything emanating from the Kremlin.”
Did Ukraine hit the Kremlin?
Russia has been attacked more than once by drones, and fingers have been pointed at Ukraine. The latest attack of this kind took place today, Thursday, when the official Russian news agency “Tass” reported Thursday that a drone attack caused a fire at an oil refinery in southern Russia (in the Krasnodar region).
The agency quoted an official in the emergency services as saying that the fire, which the firefighting teams were able to extinguish later, broke out in an oil tank at the Elsky refinery in the Krasnodar region, as a result of an attack by an “unidentified drone.”
Ukraine has also carried out drone strikes inside Russia and Crimea, although it usually does not claim responsibility for them.
Commenting on these developments, the specialist and security analyst in Russia, Mark Galeotti, considered: “If we assume that the attack is Ukrainian, then consider it a practical attack, a demonstration of the ability, and a declaration of intent that Moscow is not safe.”
Galeotti warned that “characterizing the strikes as an attempt on Putin’s life is intended to plan something.”
Vladimir Putin’s spokesman, Dmitry Peskov, said the president was not in the Kremlin at the time of the attack. From here, Galeotti explained, “It is well known that Putin rarely goes to the Kremlin, let alone stays there overnight. Why talk about assassinating Putin?”
For his part, former Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense and CIA officer Mick Mulroy considered that “Ukraine is following Putin’s movements closely, so it is possible that they knew that he was not in the Kremlin at the time.”
Did Russia target itself?
A number of experts accused Russia of planning and executing the operation, aiming for escalation with Ukraine and blaming it for what will happen in the future. The strike comes at a potential turning point in the war, as Ukraine prepares to launch a long-awaited counter-offensive.
When asked why Russia is accusing Ukraine of trying to assassinate Putin, Zelensky said: “It’s very simple. Putin can no longer motivate his society, he can’t send his troops to death anymore. He needs to motivate his people somehow to move forward.”
In turn, Mulroy indicated that “Russia may have fabricated this scenario with the aim of targeting Zelensky personally.”
Western analysts said Moscow’s response in the aftermath of the strike was so coordinated, they questioned why no reports of explosions emerged in Moscow before the Kremlin’s official announcement, 12 hours after the blast occurred.
And the American Institute for the Study of War published a report in which it clearly accused Moscow of being behind what happened, “to emphasize the existential threat to the citizens of Russia and to prepare for a broader mobilization.”
The report said: “It is highly unlikely that two drones penetrated multiple levels of air defense and exploded or were shot down over the Kremlin in an elaborately photographed manner with high quality.”
Where are things headed?
The advisor to the Ukrainian President, Mykhailo Podolak, saw that Kiev is not considering an attack on Moscow. However, this step may be a justification for something being prepared in Russia, such as targeting civilian or official sites.
This perception comes clearly in the statements of former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev, who considered that “the time has come to physically eliminate Zelensky and his clique,” while Parliament Speaker Vyacheslav Volodin called for the use of “weapons capable of stopping and destroying the Kiev terrorist regime.”
Influential nationalist bloggers have also called on Moscow to escalate the war, while criticizing the Kremlin for allowing Ukraine to cross multiple Russian “red lines” without appropriate retaliation.
The American Cradle report concludes: “These messages from pro-Kremlin bloggers could support the assessment that the purpose of this fake attack is to justify increased mobilization measures.”
